With MLB Winter Meetings in full swing, trade rumors are percolating nonstop. Several marquee names, such as Ketel Marte, Tarik Skubal, Fernando Tatis Jr., and MacKenize Gore, are at least semi-available, if the right offers come along.
You can't trade for marquee names without dealing out marquee prospects. Some of the best young players in the sport have heard their names tied to other organizations this winter, whether through direct reporting or vague word of mouth. Here are the most notable young phenoms on the block — and the actual probability that each gets moved.
3B Matt Shaw, Chicago Cubs
Matt Shaw's rookie campaign with the Chicago Cubs was a decidedly mixed bag. He finished with a respectable .690 OPS and 98 OPS+, notching 13 home runs and 17 stolen bases in 126 games. Not too shabby for a 24-year-old, but Shaw was a net negative on defense and his bat was basically M.I.A. through mid-July.
Chicago has been connected to Alex Bregman and other corner infield upgrades in free agency, raising questions about Shaw's future. He could, in theory, move to second base, but the Cubs aren't going to bench Nico Hoerner. Shaw is at the point in his career where a demotion probably correlates to an eventual departure. Either Chicago commits and invests, or Shaw becomes a valuable bargaining chip as GM Jed Hoyer attempts to navigate the post-Kyle Tucker waters.
Hoyer told reporters that Chicago has "full confidence" in the former top prospect, but there's a difference between words and actions in a front office. The Cubs are stacked elsewhere in the infield and windows of opportunity can shut quickly in MLB.
Trade probability: 40%
SP Payton Tolle, Boston Red Sox (BOS No. 2 prospect)
Trades for Sonny Gray and Johan Oviedo have left the Boston Red Sox with a surplus of starting pitching. You can't have too much of a good thing, but also, Boston can afford to push a few chips in — and perhaps none are more valuable than 23-year-old southpaw Payton Tolle.
His first taste of MLB in 2025 was a mixed bag, to put it kindly, but Tolle's fastball is a grade-A weapon and he pounds the strike zone with aplomb. If he can sharpen his off-speed offerings, the potential is substantial. That said, it's fair to wonder how exactly he fits into the back half of Boston's rotation over the next couple years. Connelly Early is further ahead on the developmental curve. Kutter Crawford, Patrick Sandoval, Hunter Dobbins — these are all MLB-level starters.
Boston could trade from the more established bunch instead, but Tolle's value is high, and we know Boston is on the prowl for needle-moving talent. Ketel Marte has been tied to Boston, and Arizona would presumably ask for Tolle from the jump. Tarik Skubal and other dream targets would also, almost certainly, require either Tolle or Early, and I'd imagine the Red Sox are more comfortable with the latter.
Trade probability: 35%
OF Jasson Domínguez, New York Yankees
The New York Yankees are in an awkward position after Trent Grisham accepted his qualifying offer. If Cody Bellinger re-signs, the Yankees will return the same starting outfield as last season. That leaves former top prospect Jasson Domínguez without a clear path to consistent at-bats (again), Plus, New York has 24-year-old slugger Spencer Jones coming up through the Minors.
Even if Bellinger departs and the Yankees whiff on Kyle Tucker, that outfield logjam is real. Jones could end up being the young Yankees outfielder dangled in trade talks, but Domínguez is a fascinating enigma. The upside remains utterly tantalizing. He picked up 10 home runs and 23 stolen bases last season with a .719 OPS. He's only 22. But Domínguez is also a disaster in the field, to the point where New York could not rely on him in high-leverage situations.
Aaron Judge and Trent Grisham are baked-in defensive liabilities in the outfield already. Giancarlo Stanton makes sure the DH reps are accounted for. So the Yankees may find it tough to put Domínguez on the field enough in his third MLB season. That's where the trade rumors start to make sense. Whether he's part of the package for a huge star, or if he's dealt to a smaller market in order to refurbish the Yankees' farm system, Domínguez is very much on the block.
Trade probability: 45%
SP Jonah Tong, New York Mets (NYM No. 4 prospect)
The New York Mets are frequently tied to all the best available starting pitchers: Tarik Skubal, MacKenzie Gore, Joe Ryan, Freddy Peralta. Every option is on the table, but DM David Stearns has to give something to get something. The Mets need established arms, which could come at the cost of their less established pitching prospects.
Jonah Tong, A.K.A. Baby Lincecum, has already popped up in trade hypotheticals, reported as a player of interest for Minnesota in the Joe Ryan sweepstakes. Minnesota now seems bullish on their current rotation, but if the Mets go fishing for an ace, no matter where, Tong's name is going to be involved. What he lacks in top-shelf velocity, Tong makes up for with a deceptive overhead release and one of the nastiest curveballs in the business.
The Mets need depth and could rely on Tong as soon as this season, but as things sit, there's a fairly solid five-man unit of Nolan McLean, David Peterson, Kodai Senga, Clay Holmes and Sean Manaea — not to mention other young arms, such as Brandon Sproat, competing with Tong for the limelight. It would take a major upgrade for the Mets to budge on Tong, but it's certainly within the realm of possibility.
Trade probability: 20%
SP Andrew Painter, Philadelphia Phillies (PHI No. 1 prospect)
A bumpy return from Tommy John surgery saw 22-year-old Andrew Painter finish his Triple-A campaign with a 5.40 ERA across 22 starts. Painter still has ace-level stuff — a high-90s fastball, an elite changeup, a nifty curve and slider combo — but his command was all out of whack in 2025 and he may be further from MLB relevance than initially expected.
That could open up the Philadelphia Phillies to the possibility of a trade. It would require a true, established star in return, but Ketel Marte fits the bill and his name continues to pop up in connection to the Phils. The Diamondbacks reportedly value pitching in return for Marte; Painter could impact a shallow Arizona rotation long before he cracks the deep five-man gauntlet in Philly.
As such, Painter's name merits attention. It still remains highly unlikely, especially when his value is at a relative low, but if the Phillies aren't willing to run up the tab in free agency, their best path to improvement is trading for an affordable, controllable star. That's next to impossible, given their lack of pipeline depth, unless Painter is involved.
Trade probability: 10%
OF Josue De Paula, Los Angeles Dodgers (LAD No. 1 prospect)
Josue De Paula, 20, headlines the incredibly deep Los Angeles Dodgers farm system. The Dodgers aren't expected to poach top-shelf free agents this offseason, but a blockbuster trade is well within their means. De Paula finished last season with a .791 OPS between High-A and Double-A.
He's probably not MLB-ready for another couple years, but his timeline could accelerate with a different organization. Tarik Skubal's name continues to float around vaguely in Dodgers circles and we can't rule it out. Should the Dodgers decide to push their chips in, De Paula is a potential differentiator in negotiations.
That said, the Dodgers need outfield depth and it would require a true blockbuster — on the level of Skubal — for L.A. to even consider this. A high-slugging lefty with incredible IQ and athleticism for his age, De Paula probably remains in the Dodgers' pipeline.
Trade probability: 10%
1B Bryce Eldridge, San Francisco Giants (SFG No. 1 prospect)
Bryce Eldridge logged 37 plate appearances toward the end of last season. The surface numbers weren't exactly eye-popping, at least not in a good way: 3-for-28 (.107) with a .476 OPS, seven walks, 13 strikeouts. But the under-the-hood metrics, small sample size or not, at least provided a glimmer of hope. Eldridge managed to work deep into counts and find his way on base. He logged an expected slugging (.496) well above his actual slugging (.179). When he did make contact, it was loud contact — a 68.8 percent hard-hit rate.
This is all extremely noisy and should not be taken as gospel, but it aligns with what makes Eldridge the San Francisco Giants' top prospect and MLB's No. 12 overall prospect. The 6-foot-7 lefty has incredible swing mechanics and should regularly generate 30-plus home runs per season once he's up to speed. Eldridge, a former pitcher, also began his pro career in the outfield, so there's theoretical flexibility beyond his billing of first baseman.
The Giants could receive quite a nice haul for Eldridge, and there's a reason his name continues to pop up in rumors. Rafael Devers took over first base duties down the stretch of 2025 and figures to stay in the field as often as possible, so as to justify the Giants' investment. Eldridge mostly appeared at DH for San Francisco, which is less than ideal usage for your 21-year-old phenom. Buster Posey also outright admitted that the Giants will "listen" to offers for Eldridge, even if they "like him a lot."
San Francisco appears unwilling to spend extravagantly in free agency, but Eldridge could net them a high-value trade target — perhaps of the more affordable and controllable variety, such as Ketel Marte. Or, San Francisco can exchange Eldridge for more depth in the farm system. Buster Posey has options, as Eldridge immediately becomes one of the best available assets.
Trade probability: 25%
C Kyle Teel, Chicago White Sox
Chicago White Sox catcher Kyle Teel has been connected to the Boston Red Sox in a new report from MassLive's Sean McAdam and Chris Cotillo. This is an incredibly strange rumor, as Teel excelled in his rookie season for the Southsiders and was essentially the centerpiece of Chicago's return package in the Garrett Crochet trade. Why on God's green earth would the White Sox send Teel back to Boston a year later?
The Red Sox can use the upgrade at catcher, and if Teel is indeed available, expect a lot of GMs to start dialing Chris Getz's line. Teel, 23, was nothing short of sensational as a rookie, hitting .273 with a .786 OPS and 121 OPS+. He's a disciplined hitter who consistently draws walks. He struggled behind the plate at times, but Teel's bound to improve on defense once he gets his sea legs and becomes accustomed to the rigors of MLB competition.
Besides Colson Montgomery, Teel was probably Chicago's best player last season in the 78 games he played. Beforehand, Teel was widely considered one of the very best prospects in MLB. It's not all that common to find plus-hitting catchers, much less catchers as young as Teel who can work deep into counts, provide flashes of speed on the base paths, and quicky earn the trust of an MLB pitching staff.
Sure, the White Sox could trade Teel — and be handsomely rewarded for doing so. Never put anything past that organization, which appears dedicated to kicking the can down the road in perpetuity, forever. That said... take this rumor with an extreme grain of salt, as it reads more like Red Sox fantasy than something "likely" to occur.