The free agency market features a ton of quality starting pitchers, headlined by Dylan Cease, Framber Valdez, Ranger Suarez and Michael King, but how many, if any, of the available options should be considered true aces? The teams in dire need of true No. 1 starters might need to look at the trade block. Fortunately, there are going to be tons of high-end arms available via trade this offseason.
While there is no shortage of stars being discussed in rumors, the odds of certain starters getting moved are obviously much higher than others. With that in mind, let's take a look at the starters on the trade block and predict if they will stay with their current teams or if they'll get traded.
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Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates
As FanSided's Robert Murray reported, Pittsburgh Pirates general manager Ben Cherington said that Paul Skenes isn't going anywhere this offseason. Whether this is the right decision, though, can be debated.
It can't be overstated how bad a look it'd be to trade Skenes, a marketable 23-year-old fireballer likely to win the Cy Young award in his first full season, but will the Pirates ever compete with Skenes on their roster? There's no reason to believe owner Bob Nutting will spend, and Cherington has proven he isn't the right guy for the Pirates' GM job. They'd never get more for Skenes than they would this offseason. I think it makes more sense than others might, but what I think does not matter. Skenes isn't going anywhere - at least not yet.
Prediction: Skenes stays with the Pirates
GMs bend the truth all the time when talking to the media, particularly at the GM meetings, but there's no reason to believe Skenes is going anywhere this winter, for better or for worse.
MacKenzie Gore, Washington Nationals
It should be fascinating to see what the new Washington Nationals' president of baseball operations, Paul Toboni, does this offseason. On one hand, he has an impressive young core to build around, headlined by James Wood, C.J. Abrams and MacKenzie Gore. On the other hand, the supporting cast around that trio is so lackluster to the point where trading a guy like Gore for an even younger player could make sense.
Trading Gore, a 26-year-old who just made his first All-Star team, might seem crazy on the surface, but he's only under club control through 2027. If Toboni believes this team won't be competitive by the time Gore is scheduled to hit the open market, trading him now, while he can bring in a substantial return, could make a lot of sense, especially since his agent, Scott Boras, will likely push him to hit free agency without agreeing to an extension.
Prediction: Gore is traded to the Chicago Cubs
The Chicago Cubs need a frontline starter, but I'm not sold that they'd be willing to pay for one. It feels far more likely that the Cubs would be willing to trade talented prospects for a cheap starter with a couple years of control, like Gore, rather than splurge on a high-end free agent.
Edward Cabrera, Miami Marlins
The Miami Marlins are in an interesting spot. They were much better than anyone expected in 2025, going 79-83, yet Edward Cabrera still finds himself on the trade block, the same spot he was at during this past year's trade deadline. Arguments for keeping and trading him make sense.
On one hand, Cabrera is a 27-year-old who is under club control through 2028 and coming off a breakout season that saw him post a 3.53 ERA in 26 starts. Is it worth trading him when he looks like a budding star? On the other hand, Cabrera struggled mightily prior to 2025 with injuries and consistency. His 2025 breakout could very well be a fluke.
Prediction: Cabrera stays with Marlins
Miami probably shouldn't trade Cabrera, barring a return that's too good to turn down. His ceiling is quite high, and the Marlins can surprise some people again in 2026 if they're willing to spend any money this offseason. Keeping Cabrera can help Miami stay in the Wild Card conversation.
Joe Ryan, Minnesota Twins
The Minnesota Twins orchestrated one of the biggest sell-offs in recent memory at the 2025 trade deadline, but Joe Ryan, despite a plethora of rumors, stayed put. While the Twins elected to keep him for the stretch run, they could continue to tear things down by parting with Ryan, arguably the most valuable player on their roster.
This could conceivably go either way. There isn't a better time to trade Ryan than now, as he's a cheap frontline starter with two years of cheap club control, but trading him now would further alienate a fan base that's already beside itself after what it witnessed in July.
Prediction: Ryan stays with Twins
The Twins frustrated their fan base enough, and I don't believe they'll add to that by trading Ryan, barring an offer that's too good to refuse, especially when he's projected to make around $6 million in his second year of arbitration. This is probably something that's revisited at the trade deadline.
Mitch Keller, Pittsburgh Pirates
A reason that I believe trading Skenes might not be the worst idea in the world is that his teammate, Mitch Keller, is on the block. Keller is making roughly $54 million over the next three years, a very reasonable figure for a 29-year-old mid-rotation arm, yet the Pirates seem motivated to trade him.
The reason for this has nothing to do with Keller - it has everything to do with their need for offense and Nutting's refusal to spend money. Shedding Keller's contract could open enough money for the Pirates to add an impactful hitter.
Prediction: Keller is traded to the Houston Astros
The Houston Astros are another team in need of starting pitching that I'm not sure would be willing to spend on a big name in free agency. Keller might not be Framber Valdez, but the Astros could conceivably acquire him and someone else with the money Valdez is likely going to demand, giving them a good shot to get back in the playoff picture in 2026.
Pablo Lopez, Minnesota Twins
Ryan isn't the only starter the Twins have up for grabs, as Pablo Lopez figures to be available as well. He might not be as big a name as Ryan, but he's every bit as much a frontline starter while also being the same age (29) and having the same amount of club control (under contract through 2027) as his star teammate.
The big difference between the two, though, is the contracts. Ryan is entering his second year of arbitration, while Lopez is making $21.75 million in 2026 and in 2027. There's a good chance that both of Ryan's arbitration years won't add up to the cost of one year of Lopez. This makes him far more likely to get dealt this offseason.
Prediction: Lopez is traded to the Boston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox fans want Ryan, and understandably so, but again, Lopez is a frontline starter as well, and his bigger contract makes him easier to acquire, especially for a big-market team like the Red Sox. Lopez probably would've been dealt had he been healthy at the 2025 trade deadline, so he feels like a near lock to go this winter.
Kodai Senga, New York Mets
The New York Mets' disappointing starting rotation was the reason why the team pulled off one of the worst collapses in MLB history. Plenty of individuals are to blame, but Kodai Senga, a starter who had a 5.90 ERA in his last nine starts after posting a 1.47 ERA in his first 13 starts, arguably deserves the majority of the blame. Senga struggled so mightily down the stretch that the Mets optioned him to Triple-A in the middle of their postseason chase.
Now, the right-hander finds himself in trade rumors following a very up-and-down season, and it's anyone's best guess as to what the Mets will do. On one hand, Senga has been (mostly) very effective for them, and is owed a total of just $28 million over the next two seasons. On the other hand, the end of his season was so disastrous, and the injury concerns for the 32-year-old are very real.
Prediction: Senga stays with Mets
The upside is too great for the Mets to trade Senga right now. He finished seventh in the NL Cy Young voting in 2023, and again, he had a sub-1.50 ERA in his first 13 starts of this season before getting injured. The injuries are a concern, as is his poor finish, but Senga can easily get Cy Young votes again in 2026 if he can find a way to stay healthy and rediscover his form. If a team wants to trade proven talent for Senga, perhaps there's a discussion to be had, but it's hard to envision the Mets selling low on Senga this offseason, particularly when starting pitching is a need.
Freddy Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers
Despite coming off a 97-win season, Milwaukee Brewers ace Freddy Peralta is on the trade block. This has nothing to do with Peralta, one of the best pitchers in the National League, who is coming off his best season. This has everything to do with how the Brewers operate.
From Josh Hader to Corbin Burnes to Devin Williams, the recent history of the Brewers trading stars approaching free agency is evident, and Peralta, who is entering his final year of club control, fits into that bucket. With that being said, the Brewers elected to hold onto Willy Adames in the 2024 season and allowed him to walk as a free agent. It's unlikely Peralta will be with the team past 2026 because of their unwillingness to spend big, but that doesn't mean he's a lock to get dealt now.
Prediction: Peralta is traded to the New York Mets
With that being said, I do believe the Brewers will choose to capitalize on his value rather than settle for a draft pick next winter, and the Mets make a lot of sense as a landing spot. The Mets' need for an ace is well-documented, and they have as good a farm system as any contending team in the game. Whether they'd want to trade Peralta to David Stearns remains to be seen, but again, it'd make a lot of sense. With Peralta's dirt-cheap $8 million price tag in mind, he's really a fit for all 30 teams.
Sandy Alcantara, Miami Marlins
Sandy Alcantara has been on the trade block seemingly since the start of the 2025 campaign, and yet, the Marlins have elected to hold onto him up to this point. With the right-hander under control through the 2027 season, they could decide either to trade him now or hold onto him a bit longer.
Both avenues make some sense. Holding onto him would allow Alcantara to build his value more after an up-and-down year, and could potentially help Miami stick around in the NL Wild Card hunt. Trading him now would ensure they get something for him, rather than risk another so-so year or another injury.
Prediction: Alcantara stays with Marlins
This comes down to value. Alcantara pitched much better in the second half, but will teams still value him as a surefire ace on the trade block? If so, I expect him to get dealt. If not, why bother trading him now? With Alcantara now a full year removed from Tommy John, it makes more sense to hold onto him if a star-level return isn't out there and then move him at the trade deadline when he is (hopefully) pitching better.
Sonny Gray, St. Louis Cardinals
The St. Louis Cardinals appear eager to move on from some of their high-priced veterans, and Sonny Gray, a 36-year-old making $35 million in 2026 with a $30 million club option for 2027, tops that list.
Gray does have a full no-trade clause in his contract, but with the Cardinals trending toward a rebuild or retool, he seems likely to waive it for a contender. The only question is how much of the $35 million the Cardinals would be willing to pay down, thus making Gray more desirable.
Prediction: Gray is traded to the Baltimore Orioles
Assuming the Cardinals eat some of the contract, the Baltimore Orioles feel like a natural fit for Gray. They have a clear need for starting pitching, and they also have a history of being unwilling to give multiple years to a starter. Gray could be a decent short-term fix for a team trying to get back to the postseason in 2026.
Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers
Easily the biggest name on the trade block this winter is the best pitcher in baseball, Tarik Skubal. On the surface, it'd be unwise for the Detroit Tigers to trade the soon-to-be back-to-back Cy Young winner, but when considering the fact that 2026 is Skubal's final year under team control, the idea of a deal makes more sense.
Trading Skubal would stink, but at the very least, the Tigers would land an absurd return for a pitcher who appears likely to walk that winter. Keeping him opens the door to the possibility of Skubal walking as a free agent for nothing more than a draft pick. With Scott Boras as his agent, the likelihood of an extension is seemingly nonexistent.
Prediction: Skubal stays with Tigers
If I were running the Tigers, I'd trade Skubal, assuming he isn't open to signing an extension. There's just too much risk involved with holding onto him without an extension. I don't run the Tigers, though, and early reporting suggests it's unlikely he gets dealt this winter. A godfather offer from a contender could change things, but it's hard to envision a Tigers team coming off back-to-back postseason appearances trading their best player.