With the Super Bowl now behind us, it can only mean one thing: Welcome to baseball season, baby. Much of the country may still be covered in snow and ice, but Spring Training is on its way — in fact, pitchers and catchers begin reporting to camps on Tuesday, the start of the long and winding road to Opening Day.
While we've got pitching on the brain, and while we're all manifesting the blue skies and green grass of Opening Day in an effort to keep ourselves warm through the rest of winter, we thought it might be fun to predict who will start the first game of the season for all 30 teams. A busy offseason has thrown this list into chaos somewhat, and some rotations felt darn near impossible to decipher.
Predicting every team's Opening Day starter
AL East
Baltimore Orioles: Kyle Bradish
Trevor Rogers got most of the attention, but Bradish closed the 2025 season on a heater of his own, striking out 47 over 32 innings of work with a 2.53 ERA across six starts upon his return to the rotation in late August. He just needs to stay healthy to fully break out as an ace, and the Orioles' approach to their starting staff this year suggests they believe it's around the corner. He has the highest ceiling of anyone in this rotation, and he's homegrown, to boot.
Boston Red Sox: Garrett Crochet
Boston added Ranger Suarez and Sonny Gray to its rotation this offseason, but come on: This is Crochet's team, and expectations could not be higher for the AL Cy Young runner-up. In a world without Tarik Skubal and Paul Skenes, he'd be getting much more shine as arguably the best pitcher in baseball.
New York Yankees: Max Fried
If Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodon were healthy, this would be a much tougher call. Unfortunately for Yankees fans, both of them will begin the season on the IL, leaving Fried as the lone ace left in front of Cam Schlittler, Will Warren, Luis Gil and (likely) Ryan Weathers. He's thoroughly deserving of the honor after a top-five Cy Young finish in his first season in the Bronx.
Tampa Bay Rays: Shane McClanahan
McClanahan was slated to take the ball on Opening Day last season, until yet another arm injury scuttled those plans and forced the Rays to go with Ryan Pepiot instead. McClanahan's health is always a question mark — he hasn't thrown a pitch since 2023 — but as of right now he's expected to be full go for Spring Training, and his ceiling is higher than anyone else's in this rotation. The lefty is a true ace whenever he's on the mound, and Tampa has no choice but to ride it out with him.
Toronto Blue Jays: Kevin Gausman
All due respect to new arrival Dylan Cease, but when in doubt, teams always lean on seniority when making their Opening Day decisions. And Gausman has been the face of Toronto's staff for years now, coming off yet another rock-solid season in which he shoved all October long. With last year's Opening Day starter, Jose Berrios, falling out of favor, Gausman gets the call here.
AL Central
Chicago White Sox: Shane Smith
You're forgiven if you didn't watch much of the 2025 White Sox, but Smith was a pleasant surprise, pitching to a 3.81 ERA (4.10 FIP) with nearly a strikeout per inning across 29 starts as a rookie. Chicago has a gaggle of other young arms to choose from, like Sean Burke and Davis Martin, but Smith was the team's best pitcher last season and has earned this honor.
Cleveland Guardians: Tanner Bibee
If you wanted to go with Gavin Williams here instead, I wouldn't blame you; he was Cleveland's best pitcher last season, finally realizing every bit of the promise he showed in the Minors, and he vastly outperformed Bibee. But while Bibee struggled in 2025, he's still the rock of his staff, and he has been for years. That's the sort of thing that builds you equity in an organization, and the guess here is that he'll get the nod on Opening Day at least one more time. If Williams repeats last season's performance, though, this staff will be his moving forward.
Detroit Tigers: Tarik Skubal
I mean, duh. If this isn't the easiest call on the entire list, it's a darn close second. Even with Framber Valdez in tow, the only thing that will keep Skubal from taking the mound for Detroit on Opening Day is if the Tigers somehow trade him before then. Thankfully, we don't see that happening.
Kansas City Royals: Cole Ragans
The Royals have plenty of good pitchers, but they don't have anyone quite like Ragans, who looks downright unhittable when he's on his game thanks to his premium velocity and deep arsenal. He's expected to be ready for Spring Training after missing a large chunk of last season due to injury, and as long as he is, it's hard to imagine anyone else getting the ball for K.C. on Opening Day.
Minnesota Twins: Pablo Lopez
Joe Ryan is another viable option here after a breakout 2025 campaign in which he was the only Twins pitcher to throw more than 150 innings. But it was Lopez who got the Opening Day nod last year, and I think he'll do so again in 2026 — both because of his performance when healthy in 2025 (he put up a 2.74 ERA across 14 starts before going down with injury) and because of his service to this staff for the last three years. Of course, both of these guys could be playing elsewhere by July. It's a dark time to be a Twins fan.
AL West
Athletics: Luis Severino
Luis Severino got the big contract last offseason, but it was Springs who wound up as the A's best pitcher, posting a 4.11 ERA across 171 innings. Those might not seem like Opening Day-worthy numbers, but times are tough for this rotation right now — and unlike Severino, Springs didn't publicly belly-ache about having to pitch his home games in a Minor League park.
Houston Astros: Hunter Brown
Well, that happened fast. After years sitting behind stars like Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez, the Astros seemingly became Brown's team overnight last season. While Valdez was busy endangering his catcher and everyone else was getting injured, Brown put the rotation on his back, putting up a 2.43 ERA and 10 K/9 en route to his first All-Star appearance. Valdez is now in Detroit, and there's precious little in the way of known quantities behind Brown now.
Los Angeles Angels: Yusei Kikuchi
No disrespect to Kikuchi, but this is more by process of elimination than anything else. We still aren't sure whether Grayson Rodriguez will actually be healthy on Opening Day, and the only other remotely proven option in this rotation is Jose Soriano. Kikuchi churned out yet another above-average season last year with a 3.99 ERA, and that's good enough.
Seattle Mariners: Logan Gilbert
The Mariners certainly aren't hurting for options here, with George Kirby and Bryan Woo waiting in the wings. But it was Gilbert who got the ball last Opening Day for the first time in his career, and I don't think he'll be giving it up any time soon after being lights out across 131 innings of work. He's one of the steadiest starters in the game right now, and if he can enjoy good health, some Cy Young votes aren't out of the realm of possibility.
Texas Rangers: Nathan Eovaldi
I know, I know, Texas also employs Jacob deGrom. But Eovaldi's gotten the ball in each of the last two Opening Days, including last season when deGrom was healthy to start the year. He's coming off arguably the best season of his career, one that would've challenged some ERA records if he'd managed to throw more than 130 innings, and he's meant so much to this Rangers staff over his time in Texas. He's earned it, no matter how good deGrom is.
NL East
Atlanta Braves: Chris Sale
This will probably be Spencer Schwellenbach's spot before too long, but the youngster isn't ready to take the reins just yet — especially not after having his 2025 season cut short by a fractured elbow. Combine that with Spencer Strider's very bumpy year, and it's hard not to go with Sale, who remains one of the very best in the sport whenever he's healthy enough to take the mound (2.46 ERA, 11.6 K/9 over the last two seasons).
Miami Marlins: Sandy Alcantara
Sending Edward Cabrera to the Cubs really clarified this choice for Miami. Sure, you could argue that Eury Perez is the future of Miami's staff, but Alcantara remains its present, at least for as long he's actually on the roster. He slowly but surely began to look more like his old self toward the end of 2025, and his years of service mean that he should get the ball on Opening Day until someone wrestles it from him.
New York Mets: Freddy Peralta
It's not often that a newcomer starts on Opening Day, but how can New York not give the ball to Peralta? Sure, Nolan McLean looks like a future superstar, and guys like Sean Manaea and David Peterson have been in Queens for longer. Peralta was brought in to be the anchor, the guy upon whom everyone else can lean on. That should start as soon as possible.
Philadelphia Phillies: Cristopher Sanchez
Zack Wheeler seems ticketed for the IL to start the season, Ranger Suarez is in Boston and Aaron Nola isn't nearly the guy he was when he was a fixture on the mound for Philly on Opening Day. All of which means that it's officially Sanchez's time, and you can't say he doesn't deserve it after finishing second to Skenes in NL Cy Young voting last year.
Washington Nationals: Cade Cavalli
There isn't a single murkier rotation situation than the Nationals, who have ... a whole lot of nothing in the wake of the MacKenzie Gore trade. In an ideal world, Josiah Gray would finally get healthy and establish himself as a piece to build around moving forward, but as it stands we're choosing between the likes of Cavalli, Jake Irvin and Foster Griffin — none of whom posted an ERA below 4 in the Majors last year. A veteran like Irvin wouldn't shock me, but Cavalli looked alright in his first extended MLB action and has top prospect pedigree to fall back on as a former first-round pick.
NL Central
Chicago Cubs: Matthew Boyd
The Cubs present an interesting predicament: There's the flashy newcomer in Cabrera, the ascendant second-year righty Cade Horton and the guy who got the Opening Day nod last year in Shota Imanaga. But Horton is young yet, Cabrera still has much to prove in Chicago and Imanaga struggled so mightily down the stretch last season that the Cubs very nearly cut ties with him entirely. So why not give it to Boyd instead, who through all the chaos around him had a career year in 2025? He's become a Wrigley favorite already, and he was as steady as could be last season.
Cincinnati Reds: Hunter Greene
The Reds have a bevy of young arms to choose from, but Greene is the cream of the crop, a triple-digits flamethrower who was on his way to serious Cy Young consideration last season before injuries sent things sideways. As it is, he still put up a 2.76 ERA and 132 strikeouts in just 107.2 innings; his ceiling is as high as just about anybody, and he remains the leader of this staff.
Milwaukee Brewers: Brandon Woodruff
Speaking of staff leaders: Woodruff is back for a ninth year in Milwaukee, and with Corbin Burnes and Peralta both now out of the picture, he's the last of the homegrown aces left standing. Sure, he hasn't thrown even 75 innings in a season since 2022, but he's reportedly healthy entering Spring Training, and he looked largely like himself when actually on the mound last season. Jacob Misiorowski is coming, but Woodruff has been a stalwart for the Brewers for almost a decade.
Pittsburgh Pirates: Paul Skenes
If Skubal isn't the biggest slam dunk on the list, Skenes certainly is. He won NL Cy Young honors last season, and probably would've done it in 2024 if he'd started his rookie season in the Majors. Next.
St. Louis Cardinals: Matthew Liberatore
After getting rid of Gray, the rebuild is officially on in St. Louis, as reflect in the state of its starting rotation. From Andre Pallante to Michael McGreevy to Dustin May to Hunter Dobbins to Richard Fitts, it's going to be a season of letting the young guys sink or swim to see what you have moving forward. Liberatore was quietly the second-best pitcher on this staff last season (4.21 ERA, 4.03 FIP), so he gets the nod.
NL West
Arizona Diamondbacks: Merrill Kelly
This could still change if the D-backs decide on a reunion with Zac Gallen, but as of right now it's hard to see how Kelly isn't the choice. Ryne Nelson was quietly excellent for Arizona last season, but this will be Kelly's eighth season in the desert (save for last year's stretch run with Texas) and he's been reliable throughout. He might be the only known quantity in this rotation right now.
Colorado Rockies: Kyle Freeland
Death, taxes and Freeland somehow finding himself starting on Opening Day despite not being particularly good at baseball. This would be Freeland's fifth Opening Day nod for Colorado, partly because he's a Denver native and partly because the Rockies are unable to find a better option than a guy with a career 4.54 ERA. Free agent pickup Michael Lorenzen is another option, and the Rockies would love a breakout year from former top prospect Chase Dollander, but we all know the score here.
Los Angeles Dodgers: Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Amid a star-studded rotation full of Cy Young-caliber arms, it still has to be Yamamoto, especially after he put the team on his back en route to a second straight World Series title. Los Angeles no doubt wants to be careful easing Shohei Ohtani into the season as a pitcher, which makes his countryman and even easier choice.
San Diego Padres: Nick Pivetta
Michael King is back, and Joe Musgrove is finally (hopefully) healthy again. But given the health risks with those two, and how remarkable Pivetta was in their absence last season (2.87 ERA, 190 strikeouts in 181.2 innings), I think San Diego will give him the first Opening Day start of his career.
San Francisco Giants: Logan Webb
Arguably no pitcher has meant more to his team in recent years than Webb, who takes the ball every fifth day and gives the Giants a chance to win come hell or high water. He's led the NL in innings three years running now, with a 3.31 ERA over that span, despite the fact that San Francisco has given him precious little in the way of help or run support. He should get the ball on Opening Day until he no longer wants it.