Red Sox players whose projected salaries put Boston in a tough spot

What felt like a magical season at times ended in a familiar fashion for the Boston Red Sox, who were knocked out in the Wild Card series by the New York Yankees for a second straight year. Boston's ability to overcome adversity and get to the playoffs after their brutal start to the year was impressive, but ultimately, expectations have to be higher than just making it to October. I mean, this team hasn't won a postseason series since 2021.

Changes need to be made for Boston to get over the hump in October. Based on MLB Trade Rumors' arbitration projections, the Red Sox might have some tough decisions on their hands.

Red Sox arbitration projections for 2027 season

Most of these projections feel manageable, with a vast majority of the players who are arbitration-eligible projected to make around or less than $2 million in 2027. There are some clear exceptions, though.

Wilyer Abreu is set to see a massive spike in his contract, with a $4.6 million projection in his first year of arbitration (and every penny being more than deserved). Adley Rutschman is projected to make over $9 million in his final year of arbitration. Jarren Duran leads the way with an $11.1 million projection in his third of four arbitration years. Abreu's deal is a steal, but other arbitration estimates, if the projections are accurate, put the Red Sox in a bit of a bind.

These Red Sox arbitration projections put the team in a rough spot

OF Jarren Duran

Jarren Duran is coming off a down year which saw him hit 20 home runs and steal 21 bases but post a .627 OPS, making him one of the worst qualified hitters in the sport. His upside is hard to ignore, but is he really worth over $11 million in 2027 — especially when, with Abreu, Roman Anthony and Ceddanne Rafela, Boston already has a quality starting outfield?

The Red Sox would probably like to trade Duran, but doing so, especially at that hefty price tag, won't be easy, especially if they'd expect a decent return. It'll be interesting to see what Craig Breslow does. No matter what, it won't be a comfortable decision.

C Adley Rutschman

Adley Rutschman is a player the Red Sox are set on building around after they traded a monster haul to acquire him at the trade deadline, so this isn't an issue of whether he'll be on the team next year or not. With that being said, it's hard not to see Rutschman set to make more than $9 million in 2027 and not be a bit concerned.

First and foremost, Rutschman has appeared in fewer than 100 games in each of the last two seasons, so availability is a concern. Second, and perhaps more importantly, Rutschman has not performed at his expected star level as a hitter. He had a .643 OPS in 2025, and while he had a better offensive year in 2026, he had a .688 OPS post-trade.

If Rutschman is who he's expected to be, the $9 million price tag isn't an issue. If he's a below-average hitter, though, spending that money won't look nearly as good.

Kutter Crawford/Tanner Houck/Triston Casas/Johan Oviedo

Kutter Crawford, Tanner Houck, Triston Casas and Johan Oviedo combined to make two regular-season appearances this year. Despite their inactivity, all three of these players earned an extra year of service time, and are projected to make over $10 million combined in 2027. That's not nothing.

Do the Red Sox think Houck, a right-hander who hasn't been effective or healthy since 2024, is worth more than $4 million in 2027? Kutter Crawford hasn't thrown a big-league pitch since 2024; will he be on the roster, knowing that he's expected to make a little less than $3 million? Do the Red Sox trust Casas and Oviedo to be worth their price tags, as small as they are?

For $10 million, the Red Sox can get a lot more certainty than what this quartet of players can provide in 2027, but Crawford, Houck, Casas and Oviedo all offer a decent amount of upside. Letting them go can prove to be a detrimental decision. It'll be interesting to see what Boston decides to do.

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