As the MLB Winter Meetings edge nearer, the offseason is starting to heat up. The first dominoes have already fallen. Josh Naylor re-signed in Seattle. The Red Sox traded for Sonny Gray. The Blue Jays gave Dylan Cease a whopping $210 million before Thanksgiving, a rarity in terms of both financial commitment and timing.
It feels like every contender, even those in smaller markets, is willing to spend this winter. There are a lot of quality players floating around in trade and free agency rumors. We should expect movement — and a lot of it. Every contender has a great white whale it's chasing. But those grand prizes won't come without intense competition as other teams look to play spoiler.
Here is the dream target for every major MLB contender, along with the greatest threat to those pursuits.
Milwaukee Brewers dream target: Ketel Marte
If the Arizona Diamondbacks actually trade Ketel Marte, due $16 million next season, the Milwaukee Brewers should pounce. Milwaukee typically can't afford to spend at the top of the free agent market; Marte is under team control through 2031 at an absurd discount. Most superstar contracts grow into uncomfortably large sums down the road. In 2031, his age-37 campaign, Marte will be due only $11.5 million.
Marte is a perennial All-Star at second base. He finished last season with an .893 OPS and 145 OPS+. That can move the needle for a Brewers team in need of extra oomph in the heart of the lineup. Unfortunately, other small-market contenders with deep farm systems exist, and none are deeper than the Seattle Mariners.
Biggest threat: Seattle Mariners
Detroit Tigers dream target: Alex Bregman
The Detroit Tigers flirted with a long-term offer for Alex Bregman last season. He's the sort of everyday, star-level bat the team still lacks. Detroit has depth aplenty in the infield, but Colt Keith and Zach McKinstry can move all over the place, clearing a path for Bregman, AJ Hinch's star pupil in Houston, to rejoin his ex-manager. Bregman's numbers might dip at Comerica Park, like most do, but he's going to stack extra-base hits and provide valuable postseason experience to a relatively young roster.
That said, the Boston Red Sox are probably closer to the top of the American League and Bregman enjoyed his lone season in Beantown, which could lead to him re-signing.
Biggest threat: Boston Red Sox
Philadelphia Phillies dream target: Fernando Tatis Jr.
Few contenders need outfield talent more than the Philadelphia Phillies. Both Harrison Bader and Max Kepler are free agents, while Nick Castellanos' tenure is effectively over. Kyle Tucker and Cody Bellinger could catch Philly's eye in free agency, but if the San Diego Padres opt to shed some salary, Fernando Tatis Jr. becomes especially appealing as a trade target — not least of all due to his eminently affordable contract and relative youth. He's due only a hair above $20 million next season and is under club control through 2034.
Tatis' contract will probably age in complicated and uncomfortable ways, but it's a tremendous short- and medium-term investment for the Phillies. That said, other teams ought to throw their hats in the ring. It just so happens that Philadelphia's division rivals in Queens also need an outfield bat after the Brandon Nimmo trade. Never count out Steve Cohen's wallet.
Biggest threat: New York Mets
New York Yankees dream target: Kyle Tucker
The New York Yankees would love to upgrade from Cody Bellinger to Kyle Tucker if possible. That's easier said than done, as Tucker could come at a $400 million price tag, but the lefty offers one of the most well-rounded hitting profiles in MLB. Plus, he's only 28, with a long prime window in front of him. Starting games with the one-two punch of Tucker and Aaron Judge in your lineup is an awfully appealing concept.
That said, New York could face stiff competition from a division rival, as the Toronto Blue Jays are broadly considered the "favorites" to sign the four-time All-Star. Dylan Cease's unexpected $210 million contract could weigh down the books in Toronto, but frankly, it feels more like the Blue Jays are just ready to run up the tab and assert their dominance in the AL East.
Biggest threat: Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto Blue Jays dream target: Kyle Tucker
Kyle Tucker would solidify Toronto's standing as the team to beat in the American League. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. put together a postseason for the ages and Toronto's lineup was a buzzsaw all year long. There are precious few holes to exploit as is. Turning Nathan Lukes or Addison Barger into Kyle Tucker just elevates the Blue Jays further, both in terms of top-end talent and depth.
Just keep tabs on New York, though. Hal Steinbrenner likes to cry poor, but it's the Yankees. After whiffing on Juan Soto a year ago, that front office should be extra motivated.
Biggest threat: New York Yankees
New York Mets dream target: Tarik Skubal
It feels like Tarik Skubal will at least start the 2026 season in a Detroit Tigers uniform, but on the off chance he gets dealt, the New York Mets are clear frontrunners. New York checks all the right boxes — necessity, spending power, prospect depth. The Mets aren't looking to waste the intersecting primes of Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor. The rotation is desperately short on durable and consistent frontline production. Skubal scratches that itch and then some.
For a while, it felt like Boston might be the Mets' biggest challenger here, but the Sonny Gray trade — even at a discounted rate — probably dampens the Red Sox' appetite. Enter the Los Angeles Dodgers: This reads like a doomsday scenario for the rest of MLB, but L.A. has the spending power to re-sign Skubal and the competitive DNA to win him over. Plus, the Dodgers' farm system might be the best in baseball. There's really no reason for the Dodgers not to do this.
Biggest threat: Los Angeles Dodgers
Seattle Mariners dream target: Ketel Marte
The Mariners are equipped with an incredible farm system, chock full of quality pitchers, which is what Arizona needs in the event of a Ketel Marte trade. The Mariners probably won't compete much in free agency beyond the potential re-signing of Jorge Polanco and Eugenio Suárez, but Marte's affordable contract presents a unique opportunity.
That said, as far as the biggest threat to pry Marte away, one has to consider the Phillies. Dave Dombrowski has built his reputation on adding stars, even at the cost of premium prospects. Marte's contract could allow him to move the needle without overburdening the cap sheet. Philadelphia has been poking around potential upgrades over Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott for a hot minute.
Biggest threat: Philadelphia Phillies
Los Angeles Dodgers dream target: Edwin Díaz
The Dodgers could certainly use a Tarik Skubal or Kyle Tucker, but more practically, Edwin Díaz addresses their foremost offseason need — namely, a shutdown closer. Los Angeles' bullpen was a real source of chaos in October. Díaz can settle things down in high-leverage spots as arguably the top reliever in MLB.
it shouldn't be too hard for the Dodgers to put forth a competitive offer for Díaz, but he has spent the last seven years in Queens and the Mets might be the one team capable of outbidding the Dodgers head-to-head. It remains to be seen if the Mets view that as the prudent course of action, but Díaz spending the rest of his career in New York is a distinct possibility.
Biggest threat: New York Mets
Chicago Cubs dream target: Framber Valdez
The Chicago Cubs desperately need a frontline ace, even after Shōta Imanaga accepted his qualifying offer. Justin Steele's eventual return will provide immense support, but Framber Valdez is the best pitcher left on the market — and he's a tremendous on-paper fit for the Cubs with his effective sinker. Valdez coaxes a ton of ground-ball contact and should benefit from Chicago's elite infield defense.
Again, however, the Mets also need pitching. Unfortunately for Chicago, New York happens to boast much deeper pockets and a better free agent pitch deck. That's not to say the Cubs can't buck recent trends and pony up the necessary funds, but Jed Hoyer has his work cut out for him if New York decides to mount a full-on pursuit.
Biggest threat: New York Mets
Boston Red Sox dream target: Kyle Schwarber
The Boston Red Sox would sure love to add a significant power source to the heart of the lineup in a post-Rafael Devers world. Pete Alonso has some appeal given Boston's lack of first base options, but the dream is Kyle Schwarber, who had a cup of coffee with the Red Sox back in 2021. His bat plays perfectly at Fenway and he's coming off a special season, mashing 56 home runs and finishing second in NL MVP voting.
The incumbent Phillies won't let Schwarber slip away without a fight, though. It's hard to overstate just how essential Schwarber was to Philly's success last season, even as a full-time DH who strikes out more than he should. The Phillies have made it their top priority to re-sign Schwarber and he has a deep connection to the folks in that locker room, so the Red Sox will need to come through with an offer he can't refuse.