The Tigers have no one but themselves to blame as the Tarik Skubal trade winds blow in the dead of winter. Skubal is the Tigers best player, and they would not have made the postseason the last two years without him – that feels fair to say – as the AL Cy Young winner carried them to the playoffs on both occasions.
The Tigers have gone from a fun revival story to a playoff regular. Last season, they came one game from the ALCS, a marginal improvement from 2024. Yet, Skubal is on the final year of his contract and stuck in an arbitration war with the Tigers front office. Trade talk is natural for all such players, especially those in smaller markets.
Why Tarik Skubal's arbitration battle makes a Tigers trade more likely
Whatever hope the Tigers had of re-signing Skubal is essentially gone. It was slim pickings to begin with, since Skubal is a Scott Boras client who seems destined for MLB free agency. However, as a member of the MLBPA executive committee, Skubal knew exactly what he was doing when he asked for an unprecedented $32 million in arbitration.
The Tigers countered at $19 million, a full $13 million below Skubal's demand. That kind of gap isn't made up easily, and there's a good chance these sides go to court rather than reaching an agreement beforehand – a solution Detroit would much prefer instead of dragging Skubal through the mud.
That mud is full of obscenities and deal-breakers that could help end Skubal's time with the Tigers before Opening Day rolls around. Look no further than previous arbitration battles, such as that of the Milwaukee Brewers and Corbin Burnes, to note how this story ends. The Brewers traded Burnes in part because their relationship wasn't salvageable. If Detroit argues against a Skubal payday for what amounts of pennies on the dollar for ownership, it'll be an unforgivable sin in the eyes of their two-time Cy Young winner.
Any arbitration hearing would start a trade countdown of sorts for Skubal, and eliminate whatever leverage the Tigers had in trade talks prior to their first filing.
So, what can the Tigers expect in return for Tarik Skubal now?
The Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets are the two frontrunners for Skubal's services, whether it's now or next offseason. Both teams have a strong farm system and can offer the Tigers some MLB-ready talent to make up for losing one of the best players in baseball. However, none of those players are guaranteed to become Skubal.
As much as Scott Harris loves to diatribe about how teams win World Series, rather than one player alone, those teams tend to feature stars, and high-priced ones at that. Detroit is in a bind, and their initial asking price for Skubal will have to go down if they hope to recoup some value for his services at this point.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers introduced Kyle Tucker on Wednesday. They by no means needed him, despite some assurances that this superteam was, in fact, short a corner outfielder. The Dodgers also don't need Tarik Skubal. You see what I'm getting at here?
Should the price go down for Skubal to the point where he is attainable, expect Los Angeles to be all over him in trade talks. It's not every day you can acquire a two-time Cy Young winner, and despite how impressive the Dodgers rotation is on the surface, every team is an injury or two away from disaster. LA's trick to combatting this is to acquire as much talent as possible. Rival owners are already upset enough at the Dodgers to propose a salary cap. At this point, they might as well be all-in. So, what would that look like?
Is that a lot? Absolutely. Is it less than the Tigers would've demanded from the Dodgers a month ago? Also yes! In Sheehan, the Tigers receive a plug-and-play option for their starting rotation. Freeland is a top-100 prospect who isn't far away from the major leagues, and can fill a third base void for the Tigers. Root and Copen fill out organizational depth in the minors and could contribute in Detroit as soon as next season.
It's not a perfect trade from either team's perspective, which likely means it includes the right amount of give and take.
New York Mets
Quietly, the Mets have put together a better offseason than most pundits (myself included) thought was possible at the outset. New York lost Edwin Diaz and Pete Alonso at the MLB Winter Meetings. That's tough to bounce back from. However, by adding players like Bo Bichette, Luis Robert Jr. and Devin Williams, New York is doing more with less. They're one ace-level pitcher away from quieting all the haters. Why not the best available?
The Mets have been connected the most to Framber Valdez and Freddy Peralta, and it's easy to see why. Valdez costs money alone, which Steve Cohen has plenty of. Peralta can be had for a cheaper trade package than Skubal, though it should be added that he's not the pitcher Skubal is, and also has just a year left on his contract.
But if Skubal can be had for less than a king's ransom, perhaps the David Stearns will make the call.
The Mets won't want to include Tong, but if they hope to acquire Skubal, it'll have to be him or Nolan McLean. You do the math. Tong could one day be great, but McLean has already proven he can be a front-of-the-rotation starter behind Skubal. Baty's days in Queens could be numbered, as the Mets acquired Bichette to play third base. Peña is a lottery ticket, but one that is already ranked among the team's top-10 prospects. Ross is filler, but he's also MLB-caliber and tested in Triple-A.
This is a sound trade package for Skubal, and one that isn't fueled by emotion. It's a lot, don't get me wrong, but in this scenario New York would be competing with the likes of the Dodgers for the best pitcher in baseball. Stearns may only get one shot at this, and he ought to make Harris an offer he can't refuse given the circumstances.