Yankees, Orioles and more AL Spring Training overreactions we’re already making

At long last, baseball is back. Spring Training games began in earnest this weekend, which means that we can all transition from reading way too much into Hot Stove rumors seamlessly into reading way too much into actual at-bats.

Because really, isn't that what this time of year is all about? The truth of the 2026 season won't be revealed for a while yet, but it's not too early to read the tea leaves. And some of the biggest names of this offseason are already giving fans reason to believe.

Pete Alonso makes the Orioles offense very, very scary

Pete Alonso arrives in Baltimore with sky-high expectations, by far the biggest free agent signing in Orioles history after years of begging for the front office to spend more. This is one heck of a way to endear yourself to a new fan base:

Alonso punctuated his first game in an Orioles uniform with a very Polar Bear-esque homer against the rival Yankees, part of a 1-for-3 effort on the day. Is parking a middle-middle slider from a Minor League reliever evidence that another 50-homer season is incoming? Certainly not. Does it nonetheless confirm our priors about how good this Baltimore lineup can be this year? You bet.

Yes, it would help if Jordan Westburg could ever find a way to put together a full, healthy season, and Jackson Holliday's broken hamate bone doesn't help either. But even with those two infielders on the shelf, the talent here is obvious: Gunnar Henderson and Alonso anchoring things, with an outfield consisting of Taylor Ward, Tyler O'Neill and Colton Cowser. Oh, and former top prospect Coby Mayo will finally get a shot at regular playing time with Westburg on the shelf, with fellow youngsters Dylan Beavers and Samuel Basallo possessing major upside as well. If just a couple of those breakouts come to fruition, and if Adley Rutschman can get back to how he looked a couple years ago, look out.

Brian Cashman was right to trust the Yankees' young talent

It's safe to say that Yankees fans weren't thrilled with their team's offseason, one that saw Brian Cashman respond to last year's ALDS loss by ... essentially reconstructing the exact same team, just one year older. But Cashman has consistently projected confidence in the media, and while it's still February, there's a chance he might look like a genius by season's end.

New York does not have the deepest farm system around. But they have potential impact talent at the very top, and that talent was on display over the team's first two Spring Training games. First was pitching prospect Carlos Lagrange, built like a defensive end at 6-foot-7 and 248 pounds, showing just how sky-high his upside is if he can throw enough strikes:

And then it was the Yankees' other gargantuan prospect, outfielder Spencer Jones, launching a SCUD missile out to right field in his first at-bat of the spring.

Lagrange and Jones still have plenty of questions to answer; the former about his command, the latter about his ability to make contact against MLB pitching. But it's also not hard to imagine a world in which both contribute meaningfully down the stretch this season — especially Lagrange, if the Yankees want to turn him into a reliever and let his triple-digit velocity play up even more.

These are the sorts of names that Cashman opted against trading this offseason in talks around guys like Freddy Peralta and Edward Cabrera. Time will tell whether that was the right decision, but New York has more upside than its all-too-familiar winter would suggest.

Munetaka Murakami's game will translate just fine

Murakami was the best power hitter in Japan for years, but he had to settle for a two-year deal with the White Sox this winter over concerns about his ability to make enough contact against MLB pitching. One day in, and he's already posted a couple of eye-popping exit velocities in Arizona:

Again, this could well prove to be fool's gold, and Murakami's 20-25 homers could well come with an average that flirts with the Mendoza Line. But here's the thing: What if it doesn't? What if he makes the adjustment, or his swing-and-miss issues prove to be the product of injury rather than inability? He's already proven to hit the ball about as hard as anybody, and if he can just do it enough, Chicago will have themselves a serious steal.

The demise of Kristian Campbell was greatly exaggerated

Safe to say that things did not go well for Campbell last season, one that began with him making the Opening Day lineup but ended back in Triple-A. He's been something of a forgotten man in Boston this offseason, his future unclear amid a crowded outfield and the addition of Caleb Durbin at third base, but there's a reason he was an all-world prospect in the first place.

Campbell has notched a hit in each of the Red Sox' first two Spring Training games, showing the feel for contact that rocketed him through the Minors. He's a sensational athlete, he's still just 23 and it's worth noting that he was thrust into the deep end earlier than expected due to the dysfunction surrounding Boston's offseason. There's no reason why he can't make a serious impact this season with an offseason to make adjustments.

This is finally Royce Lewis's year

Hey, it happened for Byron Buxton, right? Like Minnesota's five-tool center fielder, Lewis is a former No. 1 pick and elite prospect who has shown game-changing power over the course of his career. Also like Buxton, he's had a hard time staying on the field enough for it to matter, with multiple major knee surgeries in his past and just 258 games played over the last four years.

But after Buxton finally put it all together over 126 games last year, maybe it's Lewis' turn. His swing seems to be in midseason form at least, with this nuke in his first at-bat off of top Red Sox propsect Payton Tolle.

We know what the ceiling is here; he hit 31 homers across 140 games combined in 2023-24. He just needs his body to cooperate.

We're all sleeping on the Guardians (again)

Look, I'm as disgusted by Cleveland's ownership situation as anyone. This team has skated by for years as one of the cheapest in North American sports, and another offseason passed without them adding any meaningful talent or spending any meaningful money.

And yet: This team won the AL Central last year, and they might be even better in 2026? The biggest reason why is DeLauter, a top-100 prospect who had his ascension delayed by injury but finally debuted during last year's Wild Card loss to the Tigers. He tallied two hits in his spring debut on Saturday, looking every bit like the prince who was promised.

And if he does indeed realize his ceiling as a hit-over-power stud, you can see the outlines of a solid offense here. Cleveland also has another post-hype sleeper at first base in Kyle Manzardo, plus former No. 1 overall pick Travis Bazzana on the way at some point this season. We know the pitching will be there, and if they can hit even a little bit, they could give Detroit a run for their money.