We got one big step closer to the start of the 2025 college football season on Monday afternoon, as the Associated Press released its preseason Top 25. Of course, preseason polls aren't much more than an excuse for everyone to argue before the real games begin, but hey, arguing is fun — and it remains a great way to see which teams voters think are in for a big year.
Of course, figuring that out this season is more difficult than maybe ever before. Between the chaos wrought by the transfer portal and quarterback turnover at many of the biggest programs in the country, this has the potential to be a truly wide-open year, one that could break in any number of directions. To wit: James Franklin's team might be the safest in the country this year; James Franklin!
In the face of all that mayhem, it can be tough to know who to trust. Luckily, we're here to help, ranking each team ranked in the preseason top 10 by how much we trust them ahead of Week 0. To be clear: This isn't a measure of ceiling, or a prediction as to how the top 10 will look by the end of the year. This is just an attempt to figure out who we have the most faith in as a conference and national title contender. Let's dive in.
10. Miami
I'll be totally honest: Any team coached by Mario Cristobal is already starting at or near the bottom of a list like this. Miami has lost games in which they literally did not have to run another play to win; that's the definition of hard to trust.
Not that I don't get why Miami is ranked this highly; if it all clicks, the ceiling is immense. But Carson Beck's penchant for baffling decisions and back-breaking interceptions feels like a particularly bad fit for Cristobal's ... interesting approach to game management, and I have enough questions about the revamped receiver corps to wonder whether this offense will be as explosive as it was last season.
Which is a problem, because there isn't a ton of evidence to suggest the defense will be less explosive in the wrong direction. Miami's front seven could be reasonably stout. The problems came at the back-end, though, and a complete overhaul in the secondary didn't result in any no-doubt impact additions. Right now, it seems like this could be a similar if slight worse version of last year's team; it feels like just a matter of time before the wheels finally come off.
9. LSU
If there's a team that has a chance to make me look awfully stupid in a few months' time, it's LSU. Garrett Nussmeier needs no introduction, and he has maybe the most underrated collection of skill talent in the country around him in receivers Aaron Anderson, Chris Hilton, Barion Brown and Nic Anderson and running back Caden Durham. If the defense clicks in year two under Blake Baker, look out.
That's just the problem, though: Will this defense actually click? We still don't know what the actualized version of Harold Perkins Jr. looks like, and there is so much turnover both on the defensive line and in the secondary. Maybe it all comes together a la 2023 Florida State, and the Tigers finally reach their ceiling after years of stagnation under Brian Kelly. But Kelly's teams have regularly found a way to lose games, and at this point I'll believe they're capable of getting it done when I actually see it. Week 1 at Clemson would be a great opportunity to prove me wrong.
8. Oregon
How much faith do you have in what Dan Lanning has built in Eugene? Because this season might be the ultimate test: With Evan Stewart out due to a spring injury, Oregon might have just one returning starter on offense, while the defense is facing a similar overhaul. Of course, a lack of returning production by no means indicates a lack of talent, especially not with the way Lanning recruits both high school and in the transfer portal. Running back Makhi Hughes, guard Emmanuel Pregnon and safety Dillon Thieneman should be real difference-makers, and five-star true freshman receiver Dakorien Moore is already making waves.
But it's awfully hard to paper over this many holes in one offseason, and I just have too many questions here to put the Ducks any higher than this. It starts with QB Dante Moore, who will be the third different starting quarterback in three years under OC Will Stein. He was an all-world recruit who flashed big upside at times as a true freshman at UCLA, but is he ready to lead this offense at an elite level? Is Moore ready to be a No. 1 target, and can anyone else emerge alongside him? What about a defense that is awfully unproven up front and had some toughness questions to answer to begin with?
7. Alabama
Alabama might make me look stupid in a very different way. But lord help me, I can't help but think we're all a little too hasty writing off Kalen DeBoer after just one season. The transition from Nick Saban was always going to be rocky; DeBoer has come out the other side, and he has a ton of talent to work with — with just one very big question mark.
The defense should be awesome, considering it was awesome last year (Vanderbilt meltdown notwithstanding) and returns just about every key starter. And whoever winds up playing QB will have a nasty, experienced offensive line in front of him and a dangerous group of weapons to throw to headlined by Ryan Williams. Of course, that's the million-dollar question: Who will play QB? And will they be good enough to get this team where it wants to go?
I want to believe in Ty Simpson, a former five-star who seems to have the inside track on the starting job and still has plenty of upside for DeBoer and Ryan Grubb to access. But the last time we saw him, he was struggling against USF and getting benched for Jalen Milroe. The Tide are a QB away from being an inner-circle title contender, but that's a big if.
6. Ohio State
On the one hand, the top of Ohio State's roster is as good as anybody: The Buckeyes might have the best player in the country on both offense (WR Jeremiah Smith) and defense (S Caleb Downs). The questions begin ... well, almost everywhere else, starting with even more QB turnover as Julian Sayin replaces Will Howard under center.
Even if you want to give Ryan Day and a former star recruit the benefit of the doubt there, though, I have some concerns. Is Brian Hartline ready to be a coordinator, and will he be able to fill the shoes of Chip Kelly? How much of a downgrade will Matt Patricia be from Jim Knowles? That's some massive coaching brain drain, and there are serious unknowns on both the offensive and defensive lines. The latter, in particular, could be an issue; replacing JT Tuimoloau, Jack Sawyer and Tyliek Wiliams would be tough for any program, and could leave Ohio State vulnerable against the better offenses on their schedule.
I do think the Buckeyes will be one of the two or three best teams in the Big Ten this year, and I'm relatively optimistic about the offense. The defense, though, might short-circuit any hopes of a title defense.
5. Georgia
I don't expect Georgia to have a particularly high ceiling this season; I simply don't have enough faith in Gunner Stockton and this receiving corps, and there's a lot of turnover in the trenches on both sides of the ball. But man, if last season taught us anything, it's that even a down year for Kirby Smart is pretty dang good.
It helps when you recruit as well as just about anybody, and Smart can fill all those holes with blue-chip recruits and star transfers all over the place. This secondary might be one of Georgia's best of the smart era, and again, this defense gets the benefit of the doubt. It's hard to imagine the Dawgs not being in the mix for an SEC title come December.
While I can't drop them any lower than this, though, I also can't put them into a tier with the very best of the best. Maybe Stockton, Zachariah Branch and Co. hit the ground running, but I need to see it before I buy in.
4. Clemson
It tells you something about the season ahead that I don't feel all that great about the team ranked fourth on this list. It's been a while since we saw Dabo Swinney and Co. look like true national title contenders, and this defense didn't inspire a ton of confidence last season.
That said, the defense was very young and could be in for a leap in year two under Tom Allen, especially with two legit stars up front in TJ Parker and Peter Woods. And besides, they might not be asked to do all that much, because Cade Klubnik and his merry band of wideouts (Antonio Williams, Bryant Wesco and TJ Moore) look ready to explode. It's hard not to lean on one of the few teams in the top 10 with a known quantity at quarterback, and it's also hard to envision a world in which Clemson isn't awesome on offense.
That alone goes a long way toward title contention, and an ACC schedule certainly doesn't hurt. All that's missing is some sturdier defense, and there's reason to be optimistic on that front.
3. Texas
Maybe this is overly aggressive. Texas is replacing nearly its entire offensive and defensive lines, plus leading receiver Ryan Wingo. And, you know, we still need to make sure Arch Manning is as great as expected before we crown the Horns; if he's merely very good instead, the preseason No. 1 could be in for a letdown.
But at the same time ... it just feels like Steve Sarkisian has this program humming, doesn't it? I'm willing to bet on Sark and a generational QB recruit, especially one as obviously athletic as Manning. Plus, Texas saw huge turnover on the D-line just last season and simply reloaded; why can't they do it again when they have an elite group of linebackers and defensive backs to rely on? It's not that hard to imagine how it could all go wrong, but I have more confidence in Texas answering the questions it faces than the teams below them on this list.
2. Penn State
Look, I get the James Franklin jokes, and I've even made a few of them myself. And I reserve the right to bet against Penn State in the biggest games on its schedule this fall. But if we're simply going by the confidence we have in a team's ability to be smack in the mix for a College Football Playoff spot this season, I don't see how you can't like what the Nittany Lions have to work with.
Penn State has as many proven entities as anyone entering this season: It's been years since the Nittany Lions were anything less than elite, and new DC Jim Knowles has more than enough talent to work with even with Abdul Carter moving on. I refuse to be worried on that side of the ball.
I am slightly worried about the ceiling offensively; I remain a relative Drew Allar skeptic when it comes to his ability to make big plays on passing downs. But he won't have to very often, not with an experienced line paving the way for Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen. For all the questions that remain about this program and its coach, the floor could hardly be higher.
1. Notre Dame
Again, this is much more about floor than ceiling. With freshman CJ Carr likely replacing Riley Leonard at QB, I'm not sure that the Irish will be explosive enough on offense to excel in the biggest games on their schedule.
Man, I'm not sure how this team isn't a lock for a College Football Playoff spot, though. Outside of Carr, it's tough to find a single real weakness: This offense should be able to run at will with Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price behind an awesome offensive line, and transfer Malachi Fields brings a much-needed weapon at wide out; the defense, meanwhile, returns most of the unit that just got to the title game last season.
Granted, QB is the most important position on the field, and it remains to be seen how the defense will pivot after losing Al Golden to the Cincinnati Bengals. But the foundation here is very, very solid, even if the ceiling doesn't come until 2026.