Remember when the Los Angeles Rams were supposed to make playing the 2026 NFL season a formality because they had assembled an automatic Super Bowl winner this offseason? Well, after a month that whole narrative looks foolish with the NFC West turned on its head — and it's far from the only division going through it right now.
Those same Rams sit at .500 and in third place in the West, quite literally leaving it at a 50-50 chance (for now) that they'll get hot enough to be a championship contender. While the undefeated San Francisco 49ers are the farthest thing from frauds, let's explore a handful of division leaders that can't possibly maintain their winning ways the rest of the year.
NFC East: New York Giants (3-1)
Even if quarterback Jaxson Dart hadn't torn his ACL in Week 2, there's nobody out there who could have possibly predicted the Giants leading the NFC East after a month. The Dallas Cowboys look exactly the same as last year — great offense, terrible defense — and the Philadelphia Eagles are a shell of their championship-contending selves. New York, unfortunately, has to ride with either Jameis Winston or the newly acquired J.J. McCarthy at QB the rest of the year, which will mean feast or famine for the offense (famine mostly).
The Giants greatly benefitted from an easy schedule across the first four weeks. They played three teams that missed the playoffs last year and needed literal last-second interceptions to seal wins against clubs that won a combined six games in the Cardinals and Titans. Given their extreme defensive luck, the likeliest Week 5 scenario is a come-back-down-to-Earth loss on the road to the Washington Commanders — which likely will have Jayden Daniels back — before embarking on a gauntlet of a lineup the rest of the way. Prepare for a generational crashout, Giants fans.
AFC North: Cleveland Browns (3-1)
Somehow, some way the Browns have strung together three wins in a row after starting the year 0-1. Quarterback Deshaun Watson, much to the chagrin of Shedeur Sanders stans, has turned back into the prime version of himself in that same span. Either the teams Cleveland has beaten — Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay and Carolina — are all frauds themselves, or the Browns have just been incredibly lucky.
A Week 5 bout with the New York Jets was supposed to be a clash of trash (it still could be) but now one outcome could realistically be the Browns taking care of business against an inferior foe. The following week could determine the trajectory of the AFC North as Cleveland hosts the Baltimore Ravens. The rest of the schedule looks rather favorable too should the rest of the division slide in Cleveland's favor. Don't count on that happening, though; the Browns always find a way to mess it up.
AFC West: Kansas City Chiefs (4-0)
The Chiefs don't necessarily fall in the fraud category per se. Yet, the rest of the season has serious question marks surrounding it with both Rashee Rice and Tyquan Thornton leaving Sunday's win over the Las Vegas Raiders with serious injuries. Patrick Mahomes makes magic with anybody that has a pulse wearing red, but if the team has to resort to reuniting with a 32-year-old Tyreek Hill, things could get dicey quickly.
Of course, Kansas City has a bit of a cake walk schedule in the middle part of the season. Over the next six game weeks Kansas City will face the winless Chargers, the Seahawks, the Broncos (which they already beat), the Jets, the Falcons and the Cardinals. Don't be surprised if they come out of that stretch 9-1 overall on the back of Kenneth Walker III. It'll be a fragile record, however, as the final seven weeks of the season include bouts with the Bills, Rams, 49ers and a rematch with Las Vegas.
NFC North: Minnesota Vikings (4-0)
The defense is carrying this team, period. Kyler Murray has been okay at best, and head coach Kevin O'Connell feels so comfortable with Carson Wentz behind him that he signed off on a trade sending J.J. McCarthy to New York. The Vikings managed to escape with a win over the Miami Dolphins on Sunday by scoring only field goals. That's something the Giants would do — oh wait, they did last week against Tennessee. If Justin Jefferson is forced to miss more time, that kind of offensive output isn't sustainable.
Minnesota will be entering a rough stretch of schedule over the next six weeks, including tough contests against the Saints, Colts, Bills and 49ers. The Vikings should be underdogs in all four of those games if injuries persist. The defense can only hold highly capable offenses down for so long. Even Miami managed to gash the secondary for big plays, but they didn't count only because of devastating penalties. Expect this undefeated start to level out over the next month or so.
NFC South: Carolina Panthers (2-2)
The NFC South is always a battle of lucky losers, and this year doesn't appear to be any different. The Panthers are sitting at .500 after handling a Detroit Lions team on Sunday Night Football that entered the year with high expectations. Yet, the same Panthers also hemorrhaged 59 points to the Chicago Bears in Week 1 and came up three points short against the Cleveland Browns. So, which version of Carolina is the real deal? For all we know the Lions are just back to being really bad and Week 1 against Chicago was the only real indicator of how the Panthers are going to play the rest of the year.
Carolina's schedule the rest of the year doesn't get any easier either — at least on paper. The next game is against the Philadelphia Eagles which, like the Lions, could cede a win just out of pure inadequacy. Though, to be honest, all the Panthers have to do is win its division games and even with a losing record it'll represent the NFC South as the No. 4 seed in the playoffs. Gosh, that format really needs to change, doesn't it?
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