NFL Stat of the Week: Why is Matthew Stafford collapsing under pressure?

Welcome to the Stat of the Week, where we use advanced metrics to uncover the trends, performances and strategic shifts shaping the NFL season.

Matthew Stafford is one of the greatest quarterbacks of his era and a likely future first-ballot Hall of Famer. He won his first NFL Most Valuable Player award at the end of the 2025 regular season, and his work with Sean McVay on the Los Angeles Rams will go down as one of the best head coach/quarterback duos… well, ever. 

All that said, the greats get held to a higher standard. So, when it’s obvious that something about Stafford’s game is off… and we mean way off… it’s worth discussing. And after the first three weeks of the 2026 NFL season, it’s become evident that the 38-year-old Stafford is struggling when under pressure to a degree he hasn’t before.

This is a primary reason why, after their 30-26 Sunday night loss to the Denver Broncos, the alleged “Dream Team” the Rams put together before the 2026 season is sitting at 1-2. These 2026 Rams are averaging 20.3 points per game after averaging 30.5 points per game last season, and they rank ninth in passing DVOA in 2026 when they ranked first in 2025. 

And pressure is the primary problem. More specifically, Stafford’s reaction to it in the new season.

NFL Stat of the Week: Matthew Stafford’s passer rating of 26.9 under pressure is the NFL’s third-worst

• Matthew Stafford has a 26.9 passer rating under pressure in 2026
• His passer rating was 78.8 under pressure last season
• The Rams' reigning MVP has dropped from 12th to third-worst in that stat

Per Pro Football Focus, Stafford has been pressured on 43 of his 119 dropbacks this season, and he’s completed 13 of 37 passes (35.1%) for 160 yards (4.3 yards per attempt), no touchdowns, two interceptions, and a passer rating of 26.9. With a clean pocket, Stafford has completed 54 of 74 passes (73.0%) for 712 yards (9.6 yards per attempt), six touchdowns, two interceptions, and a passer rating of 118.8.

Among quarterbacks playing at least 20% of their teams’ snaps this season, only Jameis Winston of the New York Giants (22.6) and Drake Maye of the New England Patriots (25.4) have lower passer ratings under pressure. 

This was not a problem in Stafford’s MVP season of 2025. Then, including the postseason, Stafford was pressured on 240 of his 755 dropbacks, and when under duress, he completed 97 of 206 passes (47.1%) for 1,313 yards (6.4 yards per attempt), eight touchdowns, one interception, and a passer rating of 78.8. That passer rating under pressure was the NFL’s 12th-highest among quarterbacks playing at least 20% of their teams’ snaps. 

So, what’s different now? 

Matthew Stafford is not the same wizard in the pocket he used to be

The primary reason that Stafford was able to succeed so well under pressure last season was his pocket movement. Not breaking the pocket, but moving within it. Stafford was a wizard when it came to subtle movements that kept him on his spot, and he would get rid of the ball on time and on target. 

This season, at least through three games, the pocket movement isn’t as refined, the reads aren’t as definite, and Stafford will hitch up into the pocket — which at times puts him closer to the pressure he’d prefer to avoid.

So, how do the Rams fix this? Well, getting receiver Puka Nacua back from the hip injury he suffered in Week 1 would certainly help, as Nacua has the frame and talent to turn a lot of those pressured throws into confident ones for the quarterback. It’s possible that Nacua will be back for the Rams’ Week 4 Sunday game against the Philadelphia Eagles. 

“It sounds like he had a good workout before the game,” McVay said of Nacua on Monday. “We'll continue to see, but if he is able to progress the way that we hope, there's optimism that he'll be able to play this week.” 

Nacua’s return would also allow the Rams to maintain Davante Adams’ ideal role as the short-area contested-catch warrior, especially in the red zone. Nacua is also the ideal explosive target in the Rams’ frequent use of 13 personnel (one running back, three tight ends, one receiver), which they’ve done more than anybody else in each of the last two seasons. 

Having his full array of targets might make Stafford more sure of the environment around him — and right now, that’s Job One for McVay and the Rams’ offense. Without that, it’s hard to say how far this team will go, no matter how “dreamy” they looked before the season began.

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