I could frankly care less what people who run NFL teams think about their own or each other’s chances. Yes, ESPN ran a story on Thursday, well reported by Eric Woodyard, about how Dan Campbell has full confidence that the Detroit Lions can win the Super Bowl. Some other coaches including Matt LaFleur and Sean McVay as well as some Lions staffers and players also chimed in about it, but I just … don’t care.
Coaches in the NFL are like business executives. They’re in charge of a huge operation, and a rival’s gain is generally their loss. Like with business executives, everything they say publicly is part of a wider agenda, and thus I am not interested in their analysis of each team’s chances (especially their own) beyond trying to figure out why they decided to go on the record.
Dan Campbell thinks the Lions are fine. I don't
Campbell was adamant in the piece that, and I quote, “Our window is not closed. It’s not closed.” So nice, he said it twice. What, was he going to say it was closed? “Oh, yeah, our window is closed, unfortunately. I don’t think there’s much hope for this team” would not exactly be my public relations strategy. But is he right that the Lions still have a chance?
Mostly no. While I don’t think the Lions’ window is closed, per se, I also think it’s more closed than it is open. Loosely ajar; a medium-sized fly could find its way in the window, but not a bird or some larger animal. No one is stealing a pie off this window.
Most of Campbell’s “argument” (probably better termed “agenda”) is that the Lions’ 2025 roster lacked depth to endure injuries, which, when combined with massive coaching staff turnover, created a poison cocktail that murdered their season. 2026, apparently, is a much better situation for the team that went 9-8, dropping six wins from their 15-2 2024.
Attrition has stunted the Lions' once-mighty roster
I don’t think this is a remotely accurate characterization of the Lions’ situation. While Aaron Glenn and Ben Johnson were highly regarded coordinators before they left for head coaching jobs, the Lions haven’t exactly had glorious continuity since then. Drew Petzing replaced John Morton as offensive coordinator, who himself was “replaced” by Dan Campbell in the middle of 2025 after he took over playcalling duties. The defensive side of the ball has been stabler under Kelvin Sheppard, but that unit has seen chaotic changes since 2024 due to injuries, losses in free agency and a criminal kidnapping case against Terrion Arnold.
Attrition has decimated the 2024 team, particularly on the offensive line, which was the great strength of that squad and what enabled the embattled Jared Goff to throw for over 4500 yards and 37 touchdowns on over 72 percent completion. Goff actually had an excellent 2025 as well via standard counting stats, but the team’s overall offensive output fell sharply.
The institutional continuity of Penei Sewell, Taylor Decker, Frank Ragnow and Graham Glasgow has fallen apart, with Sewell moving from right to left tackle (a tough switch), Glasgow and Decker gone, and Ragnow retired (he tried to unretire but failed his physical). The Lions once again have a new center and a highly questionable interior line in general. I fail to see how this team is more equipped to handle injuries than the last one, particularly in the heart of its offense.
The Lions were too passive in their team-building philosophy
The other reason I’m fading the Lions this year is a simple lack of aggression. The most successful teams in recent years all have one thing in common: a willingness to improve the team with extreme prejudice. The Los Angeles Rams won’t stop trading for All-Pros and the Seattle Seahawks beefed their defense to the gills; the Green Bay Packers went and got Micah Parsons; the New England Patriots signed half the league after tanking twice in a row and made the Super Bowl.
The Lions have instead operated like they can keep drafting NFL-caliber starters like it’s nothing, but since their unbelievable run from 2021 to 2023, three drafts that yielded 11 such players, they have been on a brutal cold streak. It might behoove this team to start acting like a front runner and acquire some established NFL talent in trades. You can’t just assume you’ll keep getting better.
The Lions still have tons of talent at their skill positions and in their front seven, but why would I predict this team will be appreciably better than it was last season when so many other positions have gotten worse year over year? Well, I wouldn’t, and I disagree with Campbell’s assessment that this will be a stabilizing year. It looks like it could be the opposite.
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