Three weeks of NFL football have been played and five teams remain undefeated, but history suggests that by the time the season is over, none of those teams will remain undefeated. That's just how the NFL has worked for all but two teams ever.
When will these teams suffer their first loss? Well, one is (almost) guaranteed these week as the Raiders and Chiefs meet. Barring a tie, one of those teams will see the number in the loss column go from zero to one.
Las Vegas Raiders
- Predicted first loss: Week 4 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The Las Vegas Raiders starting the season 3-0 is a great story. Kirk Cousins has managed to turn back time and Vegas looks to be in a great position to eventually slide Fernando Mendoza into the lineup without having to worry about the team around him hurting his development. Raiders fans should feel really good about where this team is at.
But that zero in the loss column ends this weekend. Vegas hosts the also-undefeated Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday, and it's really tough to see a scenario where the Raiders come away with the win here considering how well the Chiefs are playing right now.
And look: I'm not calling this a "fake" 3-0 start, but wins over the Dolphins, the Saints and the rotting husk that is whatever this Chargers team is doesn't really make me overly confident in this one against the Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs.
San Francisco 49ers
- Predicted first loss: Week 4 vs. Denver Broncos
Brock Purdy has been on fire this season. His nine passing touchdowns lead the NFL, and he's completing a career-high 72.3 percent of his passes. You can make a very strong argument that Purdy is currently the MVP frontrunner, and I do believe in his progression this year.
At the same time, there have been a lot of safe throws for Purdy, who ranks 29th in the NFL in deep ball attempts and 24th in air yards per attempt. He's definitely getting help from his players getting yards after the catch.
That will be tougher this week against the Denver Broncos, a defense that's significantly tougher than the last two that Purdy has faced. The team does allow the eighth-most yards after catch in the league, so there is a chance here for Purdy to just keep doing what he's doing, but the defense also should be able to put some pressure on him. No defense has more quarterback knockdowns this season.
Minnesota Vikings
- Predicted first loss: Week 5 vs. New Orleans Saints
I said earlier that the Raiders starting 3-0 isn't necessarily fake, but I think the Minnesota Vikings starting 3-0 (which is soon to be 4-0 because they face the Dolphins this week) is at least a little fake. They beat a Packers team that is underachieving big time. They eked out a 9-3 win over the Bears in a game that was just a complete mess. They then beat the winless Buccaneers and now will face the winless Dolphins.
The wake-up call is coming, though. In Week 5, the Vikings go on the road to face the New Orleans Saints in a game that likely won't go Minesota's way. New Orleans is only 1-2 so far, but they're better than that record. They took the Lions to overtime and beat the Ravens before losing to Las Vegas last weekend.
The Vikings defense is playing well, but the offensive performance so far feels unsustainable. The team ranks last in the NFL in total yards and despite being 3-0, Minnesota has been outgained 959 to 715, and that 959 yards allowed is actually 11th-best in the league!
Buffalo Bills
- Predicted first loss: Week 5 vs. Los Angeles Rams
This Week 5 showdown is going to be a lot of fun. A potential Super Bowl preview, with the winner coming away with a ton of momentum. And because the game is in Los Angeles, the Rams should be viewed as slight favorites.
Unlike the previous undefeated teams, the Bills aren't about to be exposed. This is an elite offense and a passable defense, neither of which is a surprise. But that also means that when the team faces a really good offensive team, the defense will struggle to hold up and anything can happen.
Now, you might say, "But the Rams are only 20th in points per game," which is true. However, the Week 1 stinker down in Australia where the team scored just seven points is definitely weighing that number down. The team that's averaged 27 points in its past two games is far closer to the real version of this offense.
Kansas City Chiefs
- Predicted first loss: Week 7 vs. Seattle Seahawks
I'm not saying that the Kansas City Chiefs are the best team in the league, but their schedule easily sets them up to be the last remaining unbeaten.
Week | Chiefs' Opponent |
|---|---|
Week 4 | at Raiders |
Week 5 | BYE |
Week 6 | vs Chargers |
Week 7 | at Seahawks |
The Raiders game won't be easy, but then you have a bye followed by a meeting with a hapless Chargers team that could, I suppose, bounce back by then, but nothing about these first three weeks suggest that that's the likeliest outcome.
The Week 7 road meeting with the defending Super Bowl champions will be tough. While Seattle losing to the Commanders shows that the team is beatable, the offense is likely to give Kansas City's pass defense issues. This is also one of the league's best run defenses and it will be extra motivated to shut down former Seahawk Kenneth Walker.
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