Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- Our way-too-early NFL Rookie of the Year predictions highlight six players with the talent to make an immediate impact in 2026.
- The watchlist leans heavily on first-round picks, though a few late-round selections could still surprise with their readiness.
- The debate centers on whether an offensive star will dominate or if a defensive standout can carry a rebuilding team early in the season.
The NFL Draft is behind us, and after sifting through all the storylines and surprise moves that happened last weekend, we can finally settle into offseason plans ahead of training camp. Draft picks made way to their new teams and are already getting on the field for workouts ahead of the 2026 season. Which players have the advantage of the others in this class? It’s easy to turn to the top draft picks when talking about Rookie of the Year honors.
The Offensive Rookie of the Year has come from the first round in every year since 2017, while the Defensive Rookie of the Year was drafted in either the first or second round each year since 2000. That’s not to say that late-round players can’t turn into gems, but when it comes to first-year impact, it usually comes from the guys taken early on. That’s why these six players made our way-too-early Rookie of the Year watchlist.
Offensive Rookie of the Year candidates after the NFL Draft
QB Fernando Mendoza, Las Vegas Raiders
- Was the No. 1 overall pick
- Raiders did a good job of building around him
- This young core could have a similar turnaround as the Houston Texans if all goes well
It would be a bit ridiculous to not put the No. 1 overall pick on an early look at Rookie of the Year candidates. Mendoza did win up in Las Vegas, which also did a really good job of putting talent around him throughout draft weekend. The receiver room is still a work in progress, but the rest of the team looks good. Brock Bowers will probably be Mendoza’s top weapon, though speedster Jalen Nailor could become a favorite target as well.
You don’t usually win awards on a losing team. But the Raiders beefed up this defense as well, which should help them be competitive quick. Mendoza will have a learning curve adjusting to the NFL, but if he’s even half as good as he was in Indiana, he’ll not only be in contention for Rookie of the Year, but should set Vegas up for success moving forward.
RB Jeremiyah Love, Arizona Cardinals
- No. 3 overall pick
- Gives the Cardinals a running game and pass-catcher out of the backfield
- Under a lot of pressure for a breakout rookie season
Saquon Barkley was the last running back taken inside the top four. That worked out for him; not so much the New York Giants, but he eventually became a star as anticipated. The Cardinals will probably be a lot more patient with Jeremiyah Love and, in turn, he’ll be the catalyst on an offense full of weapons.
Ashton Jeanty had an odd transition to the NFL last season and wasn’t quite the explosive playmaker he was while leading Boise State to the College Football Playoff. Love is walking into a similar situation, but he’s probably my favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year just because he’ll have a lot of chances to impact this team. It will be difficult in an NFC West division loaded with stingy defenses. But good players find a way to make an impact, and Love is every bit as talented as the Cardinals think he is.
WR Carnell Tate, Tennessee Titans
- Was taken very high for a receiver (No. 4)
- Will have a lot of potential with Cam Ward as quarterback
- Comes from a long lineage of Ohio State wideouts
Carnell Tate has every chance to turn into a star receiver in the NFL. The Tennessee Titans offense is bad, but that shouldn’t hold Tate back if Cam Ward builds on the potential he showed as a rookie. This offense needed weapons badly, and the Titans were able to accomplish just that, telegraphing just what they think of Tate and how much they want to feature him. They also bolstered this defense, which needed some help after a few seasons of rebuilding.
I can respect the Titans for being interested in Tate because Ohio State has had a long lineage of receivers who made the transition from college to the NFL. Jaxon Smith-Njigba just had an unreal season, leading the Seattle Seahawks to a Super Bowl win over the New England Patriots. The Titans had a chance to land one of the best offensive players in this draft and they did so. There’s a very good chance he has a standout rookie season.
Defensive Rookie of the Year candidates after the NFL Draft
EDGE David Bailey, New York Jets
- One of the most NFL-ready players in this draft class
- Had 14.5 sacks last year (29 in his college career)
- Could be the anchor for this Jets defense
David Bailey has the chance to be one of the best players in this 2026 class, bar none. This draft class was full of potential defensive stars, but Bailey has a chance to prove the Jets were right to take a chance on him. There was a lot of talk of Arvell Reese being the No. 2 pick, but the Jets went for experience over potential. It was a smart move, and should give them an elite pass rusher in time.
Because there are a lot of solid defensive players in this class, it’s hard to tell which one will rise as the best, but Bailey is certainly in the conversation. Beyond his own production, this Jets defense has to look a lot better than it did in 2025. If they do, it will largely be because of Bailey. His impact will determine if he’s a Defensive Rookie of the Year frontrunner or not.
S Caleb Downs, Dallas Cowboys
- Drafted No. 11 overall in a deep defensive class
- Versatility allows him to impact the game against the pass and run
- Could develop into a key piece of Dallas’ defense
You just knew there were going to be multiple Ohio State players on this list. The Buckeyes had four of the first 11 picks in the NFL Draft, three of them defensive players. Downs was one of the most polished players in this class, but his draft slide had more to do with positional value than athletic ability. If he lives up to the hype, Dallas not only got a steal but a future cornerstone on this defense.
The biggest caution with Downs is that he’s a gifted defender but one who doesn’t quite have the perfect position in the NFL yet. The Cowboys will have to figure out how to best utilize him. They could put him in the box more, which would help pump up his stats, or they could put him coverage. As a coverage safety, he wouldn’t have as much of a box-score impact, but he could still swing games. This all comes down to how Dallas uses him.
LB/EDGE Arvell Reese, New York Giants
- One of the most athletic players in this draft class
- Can play as an off-ball linebacker or pass rusher
- Has a lot of potential, but wasn’t a primary edge rusher at Ohio State
Arvell Reese is one of those players with maxed out boom-or-bust potential. The good thing is the Giants are going to have time to develop him into an NFL star. With the edge rushers they already have on the roster, I could very well see the Giants turning to Reese as an inside linebacker to start his NFL career. My guess is they’ll do what the Dallas Cowboys did with Micah Parsons, using Reese all over as a linebacker and pass rusher.
After seeing how Carson Schwesinger took off with the Cleveland Browns last year, it’s not outlandish to think Reese could be the second straight off-ball linebacker to win the award. He’s fast and tracks down ball carriers with speed. He’s good enough to disrupt the passing game up front, but not quite big enough yet to set the edge in the run game. He’s a player that, like Downs, if he finds his niche early, could be a problem for opposing offenses.
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