Week 10 has a lot of intriguing NFL matchups but one of them that doesn't pass the snuff test is the Miami Dolphins' trip to Lucas Oil Stadium to take on the Indianapolis Colts. The two teams enter the game with a combined record of 3-14, meaning it has little significance to the long view of the season outside of positioning for the loaded 2027 draft.
Miami, which recently placed starting quarterback Malik Willis on injured reserve, is going through what NBA fans would term "ethical tanking" as they develop young players and don't mind competitive losses as they improve their draft position. The Colts, on the other hand, tore things down at the trade deadline, moving rentals like Quenton Nelson, Keenan Allen and DeForest Buckner to add draft picks to their war chest.
Unlike the Dolphins, however, the Colts aren't incentivized to truly bottom out since they don't own their first-round pick. That selection is the final piece of last year's ill-fated Sauce Gardner trade, which saw them also send a 2026 first-rounder and wide receiver Adonai Mitchell to the New York Jets.
Why the Jets are heavily invested in the Dolphins-Colts outcome
Few teams have more ammunition in the 2027 draft than the Jets, who are in possession of three first-round picks: their own, Indianapolis', and the higher choice of Dallas's two first-round picks (their own or Green Bay's). According to Tankathon, those picks will fall fourth, sixth and 13th if the season were to end today, with the Colts' selection being the highest of the three.
The Jets loaded up on draft picks to rebuild their roster, but their ultimate goal was to secure a young quarterback in a potentially loaded draft class. The top three picks currently belong to the Chargers, who already have Justin Herbert, Tennessee (which does have a question about Cam Ward's future) and Miami.
The Dolphins definitely will invest in a quarterback if they get a high pick and that would also be a big problem for the Jets, who share a division with Miami and could have to contend with someone like Drew Mestemaker for the next decade if he lands in South Beach. The best possible result would be for the Dolphins to start winning some games to move back in the draft, with this week's matchup against the Colts representing one of the most winnable games on their schedule.
Outside of this game, the Dolphins still play Buffalo twice, Denver, Chicago, Green Bay and New England. Barring something freakish happening, they will likely lose all of those games, meaning the only realistic wins Miami can attain are here, hosting the Jets in Week 12 and the Chargers in Week 16.
The Colts are favored by 4.5 points on Sunday, but the Jets are surely hoping Miami earns a win today, getting them up to two and keeping the Colts down at two wins as well. There is always a scenario where the Jets can try to trade up for a quarterback if they don't naturally land a pick that's high enough, but GM Darren Mougey would prefer the ability to use all of his picks to take players to add to an improving roster.
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