It's not a Manning. ESPN analyst Rece Davis believes LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier will be the first overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.
Davis made the declaration on an episode of the College Gameday Podcast, touting the fifth-year senior's arm strength as a desirable attribute because the ball "comes out hot and nice" and "pops off his hand." The analyst also acknowledged that Nussmeier has some things to clean up and would have some "why did he do that moments" but added that those can actually be good because it comes from his "fantastic" confidence -- a must-have trait for an NFL quarterback.
It's an interesting choice given the potential depth of next year's quarterback class, but one on which several experts have agreed. Fellow analyst and draft expert Todd McShay also has Nussmeier going first overall in next year's draft, while Fox's Joel Klatt had high remarks for the quarterback in a recent article. Yet, Klatt did not include the LSU quarterback on his latest "NFL Big Board."
Garrett Nussmeier as the No. 1 overall pick would be a full-circle moment
Nussmeier grew up around football and the NFL. His father, Doug, was an NFL quarterback for six years in the 1990s after being selected as a fourth-round draft pick and has made several stops as a coach at the college and pro levels, lending his expertise as a quarterback developer and offensive coordinator.
Doug is currently the offensive coordinator for the New Orleans Saints, who may need a quarterback in 2026 after Derek Carr's retirement. Yes, New Orleans already has three young signal-callers on the roster, but the opportunity to add a local kid with that kind of talent and ties to the team would be enticing. Plus, we've seen teams double down on the position or even move on quickly after a year or two in the past.
Other teams will be interested as well, regardless of if he reaches No. 1 overall pick status. He has to play with a cast of new playmakers around him this season in a one of the country's deepest and most challenging conferences, but he has the football background to make the necessary adjustments and put himself in a position to succeed.
A look at the potential 2026 NFL Draft quarterback class
Nussmeier has received high marks and praise from experts across the country, but there are several others receiving the same or better during the offseason. Texas's Arch Manning is seen as the crown jewel as he enters his first season as the permanent starter for the Longhorns because of what he has displayed on the field in scarce playing time and his family's reputation in the sport.
Elsewhere, South Carolina's LaNorris Sellers has garnered more attention after his 2024 performance and his team's surprising finish, while Miami's Carson Beck looks to step out of Georgia's shadow after transferring. Clemson's Cade Klubnik finally showed signs of the heralded player he was coming out of high school. Plus, Rocco Becht and Sam Leavitt have earned attention in the Big 12. And then there's UCLA's Nico Iamaleava.
Not all these guys will be up for the No. 1 overall pick, but that's just a snapshot of some of the players at his own position that Nussmeier will have to outplay. Then, you have all the elite players at other positions trying to throw their hats in the ring for whoever ends up being the worst team in the NFL this season.
Nussmeier has a shot, though. He's proven himself as a college player since debuting in the 2024 ReliaQuest Bowl against Wisconsin, earning MVP honors with 395 passing yards and three touchdowns. Last season, he followed that with over 4,000 passing yards, 29 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, and another bowl game MVP award.
He also had big games against top-10 teams (at the time) in Ole Miss and Texas A&M, although turnovers were an issue against the Aggies.
Consistency seems to be the biggest hurdle, but a good year for Nussmeier and the Tigers could make Rece Davis' prediction true. There's just a lot to overcome, and any prediction and/or declaration at this point will be seen as bold.