Mar 9, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Hawks guard Jeff Teague (0) passes the ball against the Sacramento Kings in the third quarter at Philips Arena. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
There are four games in the late night tournaments as well tonight, and this is where most of the stars are. There are plenty of options, more than usual when building a lineup from only four games.
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Here are my late night FanDuel lineups for March 11:
Jeff Teague, Hawks ($7,100): Teague has scored more than 20 fantasy points in every game since the beginning of February, but he has done even better since he was given a day off on February 28th. He has averaged 32 fantasy points per game in March, which puts him slightly above the elusive 4.5x value. He has a nice matchup against the Nuggets tonight, and should have no trouble getting to 32 again.
Ricky Rubio, Timberwolves ($8,200): Rubio had his worst game since his first game back on Monday against the Clippers because he was ice cold from the field. He still managed 25.4 fantasy points, which is lower than what you need from him, but he also played his lowest minutes since February 25th as the Timberwolves fell back late in the game. With a matchup against the fast-paced Suns tonight, Rubio looks like a really good play.
Worth The Cost:
Damian Lillard, Trailblazers ($8,700): Lillard broke out of his slump in a big way, putting up 52.4 fantasy points on the Timberwolves on Saturday. A well-rested Lillard will get to take on one of the weaker perimeter teams in the Rockets tonight. I wouldn’t be surprised if he broke 50 again.
Stephen Curry, Warriors ($10,300): Curry is facing a pretty good Pistons team, but Reggie Jackson found himself in foul trouble last night, so the Warriors are likely going to go after him tonight to try and rack up some fouls and get Spencer Dinwiddie in the game. Curry should be a solid play if this is their game play. It likely will be, since they are not equipped to attack Detroit on the interior.
Reggie Jackson, Pistons ($6,900): Jackson was a disaster last night against the Lakers, scoring just 3.9 fantasy points in only 22 minutes. He was in foul trouble for the entire game, and his shot wasn’t falling at all. He has a tough matchup against the Warriors tonight. While he should net more than 3.9 points, I doubt that he gets the 31.1 needed for 4.5x value.
Ty Lawson, Nuggets ($7,500): Lawson has played pretty well lately, but this is mostly based on his opponent, the Atlanta Hawks. Jeff Teague is a solid defender, and the Hawks lead the NBA in wins. This will likely be a blowout, meaning the likely scenario is that Lawson will have to deal with Teague for half of the game and end up resting the other half in a blowout. This does not look like a good time to use Lawson.
A: Rubio and Teague ($15,300)
B: Curry and Teague ($17,400)
Next: Harden Looks Like A Solid Play
Mar 7, 2015; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Timberwolves guard Gary Neal (12) looks on during the second half against the Portland Trail Blazers at Target Center. The Timberwolves won 121-113. Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
Gary Neal, Timberwolves ($4,300): Neal has emerged as the go-to scorer off of the Timberwolves bench. He has scored more than 20 fantasy points in five straight games, and is averaging 26.2 fantasy points per game over that time. That makes him a really good value as long as he keeps scoring, and you know the shots will be plentiful tonight against the Suns.
Randy Foye, Nuggets ($4,000): As long as they keep starting him over Will Barton, Foye is the safer play. That said, Barton holds some intrigue tonight since this could turn into a blowout. Foye is the safer play, but he isn’t always a great fantasy option. He is going to have his hands full with the Hawks tonight.
Worth The Cost:
James Harden, Rockets ($11,300): The injury to Wesley Matthews actually helps out Portland’s perimeter defense some since Arron Afflalo is now starting, but I have a hard time going against Harden. He has not been below 35 fantasy points in over a month, and has averaged 47.3 fantasy points per game since the All Star break. He should be close to that mark tonight, which makes him a solid option.
Kevin Martin, Timberwolves ($6,400): Martin put up 39.2 fantasy points on the Suns back on February 20th, and the only thing that has changed since then is the addition of Marcus Thornton and Danny Granger since Brandon Knight will miss the game. There is a great chance of a repeat performance tonight.
Eric Bledsoe, Suns ($8,300): Bledsoe was held under 25 fantasy points by Cleveland and Golden State in the last two games, and likely will be again tonight against Minnesota. Rubio hounds opposing PG’s, and has held some good ones to lackluster fantasy nights. I think the same fate is in store for Bledsoe. There are better options available.
Klay Thompson, Warriors ($7,100): The Pistons are notorious for holding down opposing SG’s, and Thompson doesn’t do much other than score. He has been held under 32 fantasy points (4.5x value) in each of his last five games, and in seven of the last ten. I’m thinking it will be eight of 11 after Detroit gets a hold of him.
Arron Afflalo, Trailblazers ($4,400): His price makes him enticing, but he is not the fantasy option that he was in Denver. He is behind LaMarcus Aldridge, Damian Lillard, and Nicolas Batum in the pecking order, and sometimes he even finds himself behind Robin Lopez. He has played more than 25 minutes in every game since his arrival in Portland, but is still only averaging 13.5 fantasy points per game. That is barely 3x value.
A: Martin and Neal ($10,700)
B: Harden and Neal ($15,600)
Next: Several Decent Options At SF
Mar 7, 2015; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Portland Trail Blazers forward Nicolas Batum (88) looks on during the first half against the Minnesota Timberwolves at Target Center. Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
Nicolas Batum, Trailblazers ($6,200): Batum is playing his best basketball of the season right now. He has topped 35 fantasy points four times in his last seven games, and is averaging 31.3 fantasy points per game in that span. Look for somewhere near that mark tonight against Houston.
DeMarre Carroll, Hawks ($5,700): Carroll is mostly a defensive stalwart, but he can do enough other things to fill a stat sheet too. He is averaging 24.5 fantasy points in his last ten games, and has a great matchup agianst Denver. He could top 30 again like he did on Monday.
Worth The Cost:
Draymond Green, Warriors ($8,200): It says something when Green struggles from the field and still gets 28 fantasy points. He is averaging 37.6 fantasy points per game over his last ten games, and remains a consistent force in daily leagues because of his rebounding and passing skills. His rebounds could take a dip tonight against a huge Detroit team, but he should do enough to get close to 4x value.
Andrew Wiggins, Timberwolves ($6,500): Wiggins was held in check by the Clippers on Monday, lending more credence to his inconsistency. The fact is, it was his first game under 20 fantasy points since the first week in February. Tonight he gets a Suns team that he put up 27.4 fantasy points against in the first game after the break. That would put him right at 4x. value.
Danilo Gallinari, Nuggets ($5,200): Gallinari has been one of the best value options in FanDuel for a couple of weeks now, but I don’t trust him against the Hawks. He had his first game in single digit points since cracking the rotation against the Knicks on Monday. The Hawks are a very good defensive team, so I am leaving Gallinari alone tonight.
P.J. Tucker, Suns ($5,400): Tucker has been off and on lately. He has been over 30 fantasy points twice in his last seven games, but in the other five, he has been under 22. One thing that is in his favor tonight is the fact that Brandon Knight is sitting, which means Tucker could see a few more minutes than usual. He is still a bit of a risk though.
A: Wiggins and Batum ($12, 700)
B: Wiggins and Carroll ($12, 200)
Next: Plenty Of Options At PF
Mar 10, 2015; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Detroit Pistons forward Greg Monroe (10) fouls Los Angeles Lakers forward Wesley Johnson (11) in the first half of the game at Staples Center. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
Adriean Payne, Timberwolves ($4,400): Word around the Wolf Den is that Kevin Garnett is getting another night off, and why not? Payne racked up 40 fantasy points on the Clippers on Monday. That makes him a great option tonight. Just make sure that he is in the lineup first.
Marcus Morris, Suns ($4,200): Morris is going to start for the Suns tonight with Brandon Knight out. They are going to shift Tucker to the two and let the Morris twins hold down the forward spots. Obviously, this makes Morris a very good value play.
Paul Millsap, Hawks ($7,400): Millsap struggled some against the Warriors, but they honestly didn’t need much from him. The offense was firing on all cylinders, and he got some more rest during the game. Millsap has an excellent matchup against Denver tonight, who is still a little thin in the frontcourt. He needs 33.3 fantasy points for 4.5x value, and should have no problems reaching that mark.
Worth The Cost:
LaMarcus Aldridge, Trailblazers ($9,400): Aldridge is not quite the force he was before the thumb injury, but he has still put up 39 fantasy points per game over his last six games. He has a nice matchup against Houston tonight, and should be able to remain around 4x value.
Greg Monroe, Pistons ($8,100): Monroe has been tearing apart opponents since the release of Josh Smith. He has also seemed to benefit from the addition of Reggie Jackson, Monroe has averaged 38.4 fantasy points per game in the nine games since the trade deadline. His matchup against Golden State isn’t one of his better ones, but he has faced some good teams in that stretch including Washington (twice), Charlotte, and New Orleans. None of them were able to keep him under 30. That makes him a pretty low-risk option.
Terrence Jones, Rockets ($6,700): It looked like his back was still bugging him on Saturday, and while that should be cleared up by now, he has a poor matchup against LaMarcus Aldridge and the Blazers. I wouldn’t bet against him, but I also don’t trust this either. It’s pretty much a toss-up between him and Faried.
Kenneth Faried, Nuggets ($6,400): Faried has averaged 33 fantasy points per game since the coaching change. He is getting plenty of minutes with Jusuf Nurkic out. I don’t like his matchup with Atlanta, but when Faried is getting minutes, it’s hard to argue with his production. Don’t expect him in the 30’s tonight, but he should be able to provide you with solid 4x value.
A: Faried and Jones ($13,100)
B: Payne and Morris ($8,600)
Next: Not Much At C
Mar 9, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Hawks center Al Horford (15) is introduced before a game against the Sacramento Kings at Philips Arena. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
Gorgui Dieng, Timberwolves ($5,800): Dieng seems to be the safest option in the rotation of Nikola Pekovic, Dieng and Adriean Payne. Dieng has seen 27 minutes or more in each of the last five games, and is averaging 24 fantasy points per game in that time. Those are not great numbers, but the matchup against the Suns is. Dieng put up 32.9 fantasy points in 38 minutes against Phoenix on February 20th. He should be somewhere near 30 tonight, which makes him a 5x value.
Worth The Cost:
Al Horford, Hawks ($8,100): Horford has put up an average of 34 fantasy points per game since getting a day off at the end of February. That makes him consistently over 4x value, and he should have no problems reaching that tonight against Denver. The only thing that might work against him is if this turns into a blowout.
Andre Drummond, Pistons ($8,400): Drummond has struggled at times with bigger teams on the interior. Fortunately for him, the Warriors are not one of those. He may not see huge minutes tonight since the Warriors will try and wear him out by running him around, but he should still have success on the defensive end of the court. That should translate well into FanDuel success.
Nikola Pekovic, Timberwovles ($6,200): His minutes still aren’t back to normal yet, nor do they need to be. Dieng and Payne are doing just fine, thank you. Pekovic will likely play around 25-28 minutes again, but that won’t be enough to get him around the 30 points he needs for 4.5x value.
Alex Len, Suns ($4,800): Len has been sporadic of late after a good run when Miles Plumlee was traded. He played well against Minnesota the last time these two met, but will he get enough minutes to do it again? Even if he doesn’t, his price is low enough that he is not that great of a risk.
A: Horford ($8,100)
B: Dieng ($5,800)
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