2016 NBA Draft roundup: Winners, losers, Celtics

The top two picks of the 2016 NBA Draft went exactly as reported — the Philadelphia 76ers took Ben Simmons No. 1, then Brandon Ingram went to the Los Angeles Lakers at No. 2. After that, things took a turn for the unexpected.

The Boston Celtics, who had reportedly been chasing a variety of trades for their pick, selected Jaylen Brown and then decided to hang onto him. Of the 30 first round selections, 14 were players who had born outside the United States, eight of which had only played internationally before being selected. Deyonta Davis, projected by many as a lottery pick, was still sitting in the green room at the end of the first round. Although the big trade rumors fizzled out, several big swaps did materialize in an NBA Draft that did not stick to the script.

Here are some thoughts on winners, losers, the big picks, and the big deals.

Boston Celtics and Jaylen Brown

As I predicted yesterday, the Celtics and the No. 3 pick turned out to be where the chaos started. Early in the evening, reports were that the Celtics had been talking about trade possibilities centered around this pick and either Jahlil Okafor or Nerlens Noel, and the Chicago Bulls around Jimmy Butler. Neither of this deals materialized and the Celtics went with Brown.

Celtics’ owner Wyc Grousbeck was booed when he announced the pick to the fans assembled at TD Garden for the team’s draft party. He made a point of characterizing the reported deals as “collection of rip-off attempts” and defended the selection of Brown — a prospect with intriguing physical tools and a somewhat disappointing collegiate resume.

Brown was a player who scouts and statistical models disagreed on vociferously, with the former generally ranking him as a top ten prospect and the latter placing him somewhere in the middle of the second round. He has potential as a very good and versatile defender, able to switch and defend several positions, but at this point he’s a disappointing finisher around the basket and has no jumper to speak of.

The Brown selection seemed to set the precedent for unexpected swings and the Celtics didn’t do much to endear themselves to fan with the rest of their night, taking Ante Zizic (a raw but active center prospect from Croatia) and Guerschon Yabusele ( a french Paul Millsap-type forward who likely won’t join the team next season). Over the past several seasons the Boston Celtics have worked hard to create a thick portfolio of rebuilding assets. Those assets have not yet landed them the star they covet and are slowly being converted into average NBA players in their early-20s. The mystique is receding.

Brown, Yabusele, and Zizic all have potential to be very good NBA players. That future is a way off though and the structure by which those players and the stronger elements on the current roster fit together is not obviously apparent. That’s not necessarily a problem, but it makes the whole night look like Plan B for Boston who were hoping to make a bigger and more immediate splash.

Others who did not have a great night

The Sacramento Facepalms

The Sacramento Kings entered the night with the No. 8 pick. However, they had struggled to get some of the top picks to workout for them, an indication that both players and agents were not wild about joining what has been the NBA’s gold standard for organizational chaos. In a serious of moves that looked strong at the time, they traded the No. 8 to the Phoenix Suns for the No. 13 and No. 28 picks, along with the right to draft-and-stash prospect Bogdan Bogdanovic. They also traded Marco Belinelli for the No. 22 pick.

Two thumbs up! Take your single pick, that you’ve had a hard time scouting for and turn it into three first round picks in the range where you can take a more informed swing at some high risk/high reward prospects. Kings gonna King, though. With those three first round picks they took: Georgios Papagiannis (a traditionalish back-to-the-basket center rated by most mock drafts as a second round prospect), Malachi Richardson (a raw wing who was not considered a first round prospect until a strong showing in the NCAA tournament), and Skal Labissiere (a raw but athletic center who slid out of the lottery).

Labissiere is a high value pick at the end of the first round, the problem is that he happens to play center. As does Papagiannis. As do current Kings Kosta Koufos, Willie Cauley-Stein (last year’s lottery pick), and DeMarcus Cousins, who tweeted this after the Papagiannis pick was announced:

https://twitter.com/boogiecousins/status/746149291249410050

It’s possible that somewhere in all that madness there is a method. For now, it just looks like antagonizing your volatile star by over-reaching to stockpile five centers.

Toronto Raptors

Despite finishing as the second-best team in the Eastern Conference this season, the Toronto Raptors held the No. 9 pick (as well as they’re own pick at No. 27) because of the trade that sent Andrea Bargnani to the New York Knicks. Picking in the lottery is an incredible gift for a team that already has so much talent in place, and they used that opportunity to select Jakob Poeltl, a polished post player from the University of Utah.

Poeltl actually looked like one of the surer bets in the draft. His statistical resume is a solid, a good rebounder and post scorer who lacked elite athleticism but showed the capability to be a competent defender with his awareness and body control. He could even become a potent pick-and-pop down the road. The problem is that, right now, he almost completely duplicates the skill and preferred offensive spaces of Jonas Valanciunas.

The Raptors may lose Bismack Biyombo to free agency this summer and finding a big man to replace him is important. However, it’s unfortunate that there weren’t a ton of options there with a better fit. It’s hard to imagine the Raptors ever playing Poeltl and Valanciunas at the same time and this does nothing to fill the hole at power forward — someone to complement Patrick Patterson with a little more defensive potential.

I’m a passionate adherent of the best player available approach, which the Raptors followed. Poeltl is value at the No. 9 pick and adding him to a championship-level roster is enormous. It just so happens that adding him to this particular roster doesn’t seem like the same kind of value.

Tom Thibodeau pokes the bear

The backdrop of the entire evening was Jimmy Butler trade talks. Yahoo’s Adrian Wojnarowski kicked things off right as the draft started, reporting that the Chicago Bulls were talking with the Celtics about a Butler trade that presumably involved the No. 3 pick.

Once Boston made their selection, things turned to the Minnesota Timberwolves and the No. 5 pick. It was reported several times that the deal revolved around Zach LaVine, and Kris Dunn, to be taken with the No. 5 pick, headed to Chicago in exchange for Butler. Remember that Tom Thibodeau, Butler’s former coach in Chicago, is now running things in Minnesota. Rumblings about this trade continued to persist for nearly two hours, even after Minnesota selected Dunn, until David Aldridge shut them down.

These sorts of trades are often rumored and never completed. What made this so interesting was the parties involved — Thibodeau was let go by the Bulls about a year ago in rather ugly fashion. And then this trickled out:

The idea that Thibodeau would engage the Bulls in trade talks he never had any intention of following through on, simply to troll and antagonize them, is both hilarious and troubling. Thibodeau has his flaws but on his was out of Chicago he was also loaded up with far more than his share of the blame by the team’s front office. Imagining him gleefully poking the beat is emotionally satisfying on a few levels.

If the reports are true though, the transactional door with Chicago is probably closed for as long as he’s in charge of the Timberwolves, and this could hamper his ability to make deals with other teams as well. NBA trades rely on relationships and the assumption of honesty and credibility. If Thibodeau has cost himself some future opportunity because of satisfying revenge, that’s a shame.

Feeling pretty good this morning

Philadelphia 76ers

Things couldn’t have gone much better for the Philadelphia 76ers last night. Although they couldn’t get the Boston Celtics to bite on a deal for Jahlil Okafor or Nerlens Noels to nab the No. 3 pick, they didn’t overthink things at the top and took Ben Simmons generally regarded as the best player available in the draft. As chaos overtook the middle of the draft, several highly regarded prospects slid towards the end of the first round and the 76ers made out like bandits.

With the No. 26 and No. 28 picks the 76ers scored Timothe Luwawu and Furkan Korkmaz. Both are athletic wings with a ton of potential as shooters and defenders. Both were also rated as lottery picks on many mock drafts and both reportedly have reasonable buyouts that would allow them to join Philadelphia next season. It’s still a jumble from a fit perspective, with a big hole at point guard, but suddenly this roster is: Okafor, Noel, Joel Embiid, Simmons, Dario Saric, Robert Covington, Luwawu, Korkmaz, and oodles of cap space. Not bad Process, not bad at all.

Thon Maker

Earlier in the day it looked like Thon Maker had receded from the first round as it was reported teams were questioning whether he was really 19-years old, and not several years older. Instead of sliding into oblivion, Maker was selected at No. 10 by the Milwaukee Bucks higher than he was realistically projected by anyone. The pick has the whiff of being a reach (and not just because Maker has an enormous wingspan and standing reach) as he’s a high school prospect who may need plenty of time to develop before he’s really ready to contribute.

However, his physical tools are tantalizing and, as easy as it is to oversimplify, the Bucks are a savvy NBA team who doesn’t make personnel decisions on the basis of wingspan alone. Trust that they saw something in Maker that others didn’t. However things shake out, you have to feel happy for Maker who has followed an unbelievably complicated and difficult path to realize his NBA dreams.

Phoenix Suns

The Phoenix Suns have to be ecstatic that the Celtics took Jaylen Brown because it delivered them Dragan Bender with the No. 4 pick. Bender is long and versatile with star potential, something the Suns could definitely use in their frontcourt. Then the Suns were able to swing a trade with the Sacramento Facepalms, moving the No. 13 and No. 28 picks for a chance to climb to No. 8 and get Marquese Chriss.

Chriss is another high risk/high reward prospect with elite athleticism but needing plenty of refinement. The Suns needed to rebuild their frontcourt rotation and there were no sure things in the range they were drafting. In landing Chriss and Bender they have taken two huge swings and if either one of them turns into home run, they’ll be set up. If both of them live up to their potential, watch out.

Kris Dunn

Falling to No. 5, and then spending most of the evening wondering if he was going to be traded to Chicago can’t have been fun for Dunn. But in the end things worked out with him in a fantastic situation. He is a very strong defensive prospect and Thibodeau will certainly help bring out the best of his potential on that side of the floor. He also gets the benefit of going to a team with something of a defined personnel structure, meaning there won’t be a ton of pressure on him to be a world-beater right out of the gate.

Assuming the Timberwolves hang on to Ricky Rubio (please, please, please), Dunn likely becomes the third guard off the bench. He can play off the ball alongside Rubio, or share ball-handling responsibilities with LaVine, giving him space to learn on offense and focusing helping the Timberwolves build an elite team defense.

Rich get richer

The San Antonio Spurs always seem to find themselves a gem at the end of the first round. This year was no exception as athletic combo guard Dejounte Murray tumbled out of the lottery and right into their laps. The Spurs have made a living out of squeezing exception production from average talent. Giving them someone of Murray’s potential seems almost unfair, but they’re not the only ones who made out.

The Cleveland Cavaliers traded back into the second round to nab Kay Felder at No. 54. He’s an undersized point guard at 5-9, but with his statistical resume like would have been a lottery pick if he was a few inches taller. He could be an enormous steal.

The Golden State Warriors gave themselves some free agency insurance by selecting center Damian Jones from Vanderbilt. He’s an active, big body who could potentially play some minutes if Festus Ezeli ends up elsewhere. In the second round, they found Patrick McCaw, a wing from UNLV who was rated as one of the best 3-and-D prospects in the draft.

In a few years, one of these guys is going to be playing big minutes in the playoffs and 29 other teams are going to be shaking their heads wondering how they missed it.

What exactly would you say, you do here?

The biggest move of the night was the trade between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Orlando Magic. Oklahoma City sent Serge Ibaka to Orlando in exchange for Victor Oladipo, Ersan Ilyasova, and the No. 11 pick, Domantas Sabonis. This deal is getting its own separate section both because of the ramifications and because I’m not really sure where to slot it on the spectrum of winning and losing.

For Orlando, Serge Ibaka is a fantastic addition and, in a vacuum, probably worth the cost. Ibaka’s mobility, shot-blocking, and outside shooting helps their spacing and protects Nikola Vucevic who is not a fantastic defender or rim-protector. Giving up Oladipo is not a huge loss as the Magic may be looking to re-sign Evan Fournier and would probably be well served giving some more minutes to Mario Hezonja. However, Ibaka is a free agent after next season and there is no guarantee that he stays in Orlando. As well as this trade addresses their current needs, it’s a little less palatable as a one-year rental.

For the Oklahoma City, Ibaka was reportedly unhappy and this seems like a pretty good return if they had to move him. Oladipo is perhaps the best two-way player the Thunder have ever had next to Westbrook in their backcourt. He’s not a fantastic shooter but at least as good as Waiters (playoff surge, notwithstanding) and certainly more reliable than Andre Roberson. Ilyasova can still make three-pointers but his defensive limitations mean he won’t have much use to the Thunder. Sabonis is a really interesting prospect but he has defensive question marks as well and likely won’t play much behind Steven Adams and Enes Kanter (and a little Mitch McGary, please!) next season.

While the deal may seem like a wash for Thunder talent-wise, and addressing a significant and enduring hole in their backcourt, it also opens another huge one in their frontcourt. The strategy that they used to push the Golden State Warriors to the brink simply wouldn’t have worked without Ibaka. His shooting and speed meant they could space the floor with Adams at center and still switch screens. His rim-protection ability allowed them to do the same when Kanter played. His ability to do all of those things together was what made small ball lineups work with Ibaka at center and Kevin Durant at power forward.

Ultimately, if this move helps convince Durant to stay in Oklahoma City then it it’s worth it a thousand times over. However, when you consider both what they gained and lost in the deal, it seems like more of a step sideways.

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