Redskins at Ravens: Odds, trends and more

A 3-1 Baltimore Ravens team is 3.5-point favorites for Week 5’s matchup with the 2-2 Washington Redskins.

It’s an early betting line that says a lot about both teams. The Ravens haven’t been convincing, despite losing their first game in Week 4, and by just a single point.

Meanwhile, Washington has been as mercurial as their record suggests. On their best day, the Redskins can pile up the points against anybody. But 2015’s NFC East winners are just as likely to find new ways to self-destruct and lose.

Odds

Line: BAL (-3.5)

Over/Under: 47

The game will pit the NFL’s No. 1 ranked Ravens defense against a Washington offense defined by a plethora of exciting pass-catchers. Quarterback Kirk Cousins can target tight ends Jordan Reed and Vernon Davis, as well as wideouts DeSean Jackson, Jamison Crowder and Pierre Garcon.

However, the unit may struggle against a Baltimore unit that’s terrific up front. Nose tackle Brandon Williams is a nightmare in the running game, while fellow interior lineman Timmy Jernigan is at the start of a breakthrough year. Cerebral veteran safety Eric Weddle is still a force on the back end.

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The Redskins might have trouble doing their bit to hit the over in a line posted at 47 by OddsShark. Yet it’s been a trend for Washington to go over, per the same source: “The total has gone OVER in five of Washington’s last five games.” However, the Ravens have the recent history to buck the trend: “The total has gone UNDER in five of Baltimore’s last seven games at home.”

A lot will depend on how the Ravens secondary handles Cousins’ gifted receiving corps. The Redskins should be buoyed by what Oakland Raiders quarterback Derek Carr and his receivers did at M&T Bank Stadium last week. Carr threw four touchdowns, connecting with Michael Crabtree for three of them.

It helps the Ravens are succeeding in limiting the one thing Washington’s passing game is designed to create. Namely, yards after the catch. Most of Cousins’ best plays come from quick reads targeting the likes of Crowder and Reed on the run underneath. But the Ravens are the stingiest defense in the league when yielding YAC, according to Sporting Charts.

Cousins is also unlikely to receive the same level of protection Carr did last week. Oakland boasts perhaps the best offensive line in football, as numbers from NFL Research indicate:

Contrast those numbers with how the Redskins have struggled to protect Cousins. He’s been sacked seven times through four games. If the Ravens put heat on Cousins, he’ll make mistakes and the home team will more than cover the spread.

The best statistical matchup will pit Washington’s 20th-ranked road run defense, per OddsShark, against a refreshed Baltimore rushing rotation. Justin Forsett is gone, so now it’s time for Terrance West and rookie Kenneth Dixon to carry the load.

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West topped 100 yards against the Raiders, and is a good bet to do it again. If he can grind it out, while the Ravens D’ rolls down the shutters, Washington will be on the wrong end of a narrow defeat.