Nylon Calculus Week 18 in Review: Recapping Trade Deadline deals

The trade deadline has passed, and we saw no other stars flipped to other teams — the DeMarcus Cousins trade remains the biggest one. This isn’t unexpected, but it’s a little disappointing. Perhaps, as I theorized, teams are wary of trying to challenge the Golden State Warriors or Cleveland Cavaliers, and are perfectly content to build for the future and wait for a better time to peak. But the changes in the CBA appear to be harmful for small market teams — the opposite of its intended effect — and we may see more stars leave from poorer organizations. This wasn’t the quietest trade deadline by any stretch of the imagination, however; there are a few deals to analyze as the season presses on. And with that, let’s look back at the last week in the NBA.

Nerlens “The Eraser” Noel in Dallas

One trade deadline deal could be remembered years later from now as a steal: the Dallas Mavericks essentially traded two second round picks, Justin Anderson, and Andrew Bogut’s contract (who has already been waived) for Nerlens Noel. I realize the center situation in Philadelphia was untenable, and they were all depressing each other’s value. But anyone with a passing interest in the team understood Joel Embiid’s injury history, which means it’d be pretty smart to have a good plan B. Luckily, they had Nerlens Noel and Jahlil Okafor already, and a cursory glance at how the team has performed with either guy should lead one to a solid conclusion: Noel’s the keeper, and he’s the only one who could play next to Embiid as well, since Okafor isn’t quick enough to guard perimeter guys.

Read More: Willie Cauley-Stein, Jahlil Okafor, and the benefit of opportunity

Unfortunately, the market was soft for Okafor, and Noel will be a restricted free agent this summer. The 76ers wanted to save face by not selling the former for little to nothing, and the latter could be a financial drain. They did not see the forest for the trees and they chose an option that will look better in the short-term but will severely hamper them long-term. Already, the decision does not look wise; Embiid is out indefinitely and Noel has looked fantastic with his new team. The game was already “over” at the time of the clip below, but you can see Noel’s quickness and anticipation. It’s why he had number one pick potential before a knee injury.

The idea that Philly should hold onto Jahlil because the returns weren’t great is a fallacy. The team has not performed well with Okafor, who increasingly looks like a dinosaur in a mammal’s world, unable to defend and contribute to a modern offense. His value will only decrease as he runs out the rest of his rookie contract. Perhaps he may improve — but the safer bet is that Noel would be a better core piece, and, honestly, even backup Richaun Holmes would be the wiser investment, partly based on his cost.

Noel is the one who looks like a game-changer and a future Defensive Player of the Year candidate: he’s somehow at the top of the steals per possession leaderboard, next to Tony Allen and Chris Paul, while still providing good rim protection numbers. If he maintains these rates the rest of the season, he’ll join Bobby Jones, Gerald Wallace, and Hakeem Olajuwon as the only players to average anywhere near that many steals and blocks per possession. He’s currently third in loose balls recovered per minute too, just a hair behind the leader, and he’s first in deflections, which is ludicrous for a big man. The signs are all there — this is not a guy who should walk away for two first round picks and a guy, Justin Anderson, who may or may not be a solid rotation player. Dallas has a key piece for their future, as, if healthy, Nerlens Noel will be a highly value contributor for a long time.

Paul George and portability

The player who I wanted to see traded more than anyone else was Paul George. It’s because I feel he’s the star with the highest portability currently playing who’s not already on a contender — Draymond Green is highly portable, as who wouldn’t want a versatile defender who can pass and hit from outside? Kawhi Leonard is portable too for related reasons, although he’s become more of an isolation scorer lately.

Portability is basically a term for how a player’s individual value changes in different environments  — it’s not about pure talent or how good a guy is. Paul George seems like an ideal additional star for any contender. In other words, he’s highly portable. He’s a long, rangy defender who can guard multiple positions, he’s not too ball dominant, and he’s an excellent outside shooter. He’s like a turbo-charged 3-and-D player, the coveted archetype every contender tries to collect. It’s unfortunate to see him stuck with the Pacers for the time being, and from rumors it appears if he does escape it’ll be with the Lakers, another team without a clear path to being a contender. It’s too bad because his talents are needed elsewhere.

From Phoenix to Toronto: Long-haul Tucker

In a trade meant to appease me, the Phoenix Suns finally let PJ Tucker move to a playoff team in Toronto, where his 3-and-D exploits will be of greater value. He could end up being only a free agent rental, but they did not have to pay with their first round pick — he was dealt for two second round picks along with Jared Sullinger’s contract — and he’s an under-appreciated defender. Overall, he’s limited by his offensive utility, where he doesn’t provide a lot except for below average 3-point shooting. However, he’s a career 35 percent shooter from that distance, and he’s near that this season; it’s just enough that defenses can’t ignore him completely.

Defensively, he’s a tough forward who can log time as a power forward in many matchups competently. His defensive numbers aren’t overwhelmingly great — his RPM is consistently around +0.50 on defense for some reason — but he’ll pick up a few steals, deflections, and loose balls with regularity. He has quick hands; you can see him poke the ball away from James Young here. And this guy is tough and relentless: he’ll go toe-to-toe with Jusuf Nurkic under the basket for a rebound, and Nurkic will be the one on the ground while Tucker gets the technical foul. His strength is why the Raptors want him for a potential future playoff series against LeBron James. You can see some more clips of his defense here from the 2015 season; he hasn’t lost much since then, if anything. Going forward, it’s a smart move for the Raptors, but unfortunately they have to deal with a bigger issue now: Kyle Lowry’s injury.

The conflation of team and individual defensive value

Last week, Krishna Narsu released an article on how individual player stats change when those players change teams. There’s a lot of interesting information to unpack, like how when players move to better teams they shoot more 3-pointers or how both assist and usage rates decline, but there was one little finding I found intriguing: while BPM is more stable than PER or Win Shares when changing teams, the defensive component, DBPM, is not. When players move to better teams during the same season, their DBPM’s usually rise significantly. I’m pointing this out for people who will use this stat in the future and may, for example, cite this statistic in the Defensive Player of the Year debates. It’s something to keep in mind, and this is an issue with every team-adjusted metric, including my own (Dredge and HBox.)

The Chicago-Oklahoma City trade

Last week, the Thunder traded Cameron Payne, Anthony Morrow, and Joffrey Lauvergne for Taj Gibson, Doug McDermott, and a 2018 second-round pick. This deal has already been analyzed thoroughly — and, seriously Chicago, the Thunder received the better players yet still gained a pick from the process? — but I think two aspects of the trade warrant closer looks. Firstly, the Thunder are exchanging one shooting specialist, Anthony Morrow, for another in Doug McDermott. Morrow has been disappointing this season where he’s shooting 29 percent from behind the arc, but anyone who knows 3-point percentages understand they’re highly volatile and not stable season-to-season. There’s no reason to suspect he can no longer shoot, and I’m confident the guy will regain his shooting touch — he’s 13th all-time in 3-point percentage, for one. It’s not like Doug is a more complete player or they need his defense. Both guys are pretty limited, and Oklahoma City’s spacing issues require a solution beyond one shooting specialist.

Secondly, this trade reminds me of the New Orleans heist, where the Kings overvalued Buddy Hield and got less in the trade than they should have. The Bulls see Cameron Payne as a worthy, high-value target, when most outside observers see his ceiling as backup point guard. No, the Bulls were probably not going to keep Taj Gibson in the off-season anyway, and Dougie doesn’t command a high price, but it’s a curious use of assets nonetheless.

The forgotten pioneer

Here’s a nice little feature on how the NBA has seen an offensive explosion over the past 15 years, and most of the regular actors — Mike D’Antoni, Steve Nash, Steve Kerr, et al — but there was one curious exclusion. Why are we all collectively ignoring Don Nelson? He was a true maverick whose goal was positionless basketball and used unprecedented lineups like a frontcourt of Stephen Jackson and Al Harrington. This culminated in an epic upset of a 67-win Dallas team by his No. 8-seeded Warriors. Years later, Eric Spoelstra would win multiple tiles with non-traditional lineups using Shane Battier as power forward and pushing his center, Chris Bosh, to the 3-point line. Golden State would find similar success with Draymond Green as the center, and both teams used their versatility to switch frequently on defense. That is all reminiscent of Don Nelson’s style, who had been innovating since the 1970’s. But he’s rarely mentioned anymore, even though he’s one of the founding fathers of small ball. That’s a shame.

Lou Rocketship: Houston needs more scoring

After a summer where the Rockets acquired Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon, people were skeptical because the team appeared to be cartoonishly all-offense and no-defense. Now, after finding some success, they’re adding yet another offensive piece with little defense: Lou Williams for a first round pick and Corey Brewer. Lou is in the midst of a career year, which is strangely occurring in his first season in his 30’s. His true shooting percentage is a little north of 61 and his usage rate is over 30 percent — both are career-highs. His shooting percentages are not sustainable, at least not at that usage rate; but it’s possible his shooting percentages hold while his shot volume numbers plummet on the superior Houston squad.

Lou Williams is a classic Daryl Morey player. He’s efficient because he generates an overwhelming number of free throws and 3-pointers, just like James Harden. In fact, as you can see in the graph below, he had a season (2016) that was as much an outlier in terms of free throw and 3-point attempts as anything we’ve seen from Harden or Danilo Gallinari. His current season compares favorably too. He’s already the prototypical Houston Rocket, and in retrospect I wonder why it took him so long to join the team. But that leaves me wondering: why didn’t Houston make a play for Gallinari? Might as well collect them all and go for broke.

Unselds and Westbrooks

Over a year ago, I tried to tackle a stat name the “Unseld,” which wasn’t completely my idea — Bill Simmons has proposed this before and I’m sure he’s not the only one. It’s all about a full-court outlet pass that turns into an assist, and for those unaware, Wes Unseld was a master in this respect and is regarded as many as the best practitioner on league history. Unfortunately, there’s not a clear way to create this stat from available data because there’s no public access to passes or assists of a certain distance. This is what stopped me previously: at first I was using SportVU’s raw movement data, which was not clean but contained tracking information for both the ball and the players, and then that data was taken away. Instead I have to rely on a limited version of the stat, but nonetheless it provides an interesting subsection of NBA players.

Here’s the definition I’m going with: players who grab a defensive rebound, and within three seconds net an assist that leads to a layup or dunk. I wish I could count inbound assists, but I’m relying on play-by-play data and, thus, I don’t know who’s inbounding the ball after a made shot. The three seconds was found through experimentation, as it’s a good balance between not losing any outlet assists or not counting too many instances of a rebounder dribbling up the court and then passing.

You can see the results below for the top-ranked seasons for every season from 1997 to 2017 (pre-all-star break.) Fittingly, Kevin Love’s tour de force is first. That’s the season he averaged 4.4 assists per game, and it remains his best season (according to most metrics) by far. Oddly, none of his other seasons do as well; his next highest season was in 2015 with 10. Most Unselds are from point guards, as Jason Kidd and Andre Miller look like the maestros here. There are a few versatile forwards too, like Paul Pierce and LeBron James.

Table: top seasons by Unselds (rebound-outlet-assists)

If you’re wondering who the leader is for this season, it’s a tie between Ricky Rubio and James Harden; each has six. Rubio has 31 total so far in his career, but he’s far from the current all-time leader: Andre Miller with 140, followed by Kidd with 130. Unfortunately, I don’t have data going back to the 1980’s and 1970’s and even further, so there’s no information on Magic Johnson, Bill Russell, Bill Walton, and the man himself, Wes Unseld. But I imagine what Kevin Love did in 2014 is one few other big men have accomplished in terms of outlet passing, outside of a handful of legends. And it’s no surprise because Wes Unseld himself played with Kevin’s father, Stan Love, back in the 1970’s, and he was a major inspiration for Kevin.

The “Unseld” has a related statistic, and in spirit it is its opposite: the Westbrook. This is when a player gets a defensive rebound, and five seconds later scores an unassisted shot within three feet of the rim. It’s obvious why it’s named after Westbrook, and you can see the season leaders below. LeBron James actually has the most in a season, back when he was a 20-year-old phenom. I could have named this stat after LeBron, but I didn’t want a situation where everything is named after him, like Euler in math; LeBron’s just too versatile and commanding.

Table: top seasons by Westbrooks (rebound-fast break-unassisted shots)

Russell Westbrook indeed performs well in this stat, but he has competition. LeBron’s a stud, obviously, but John Wall looks superb too. Also, curiously, Tyreke Evans has the second-best season. This was when he was a promising young player who won Rookie of the Year, and he famously averaged 20 points, 5 rebounds, and 5 assists per game which had only been done by rookies named Michael Jordan, LeBron James, and Oscar Robertson. You can see that the list is full of young, athletic wonders. Usually guys only rack up a bunch of Westbrooks when they’re in their early-to-mid 20’s, and most are super athletic with the exception of Andre Miller.

The career leader, by the way, is LeBron James with 146, and he’s still running up the score (he is a cyborg.) Tony Parker, surprisingly, is second with 101, but he’ll be passed soon by Westbrook himself, who has 94. Sadly, the leader for this season is Jabari Parker with 10, who has played only 51 games before a season-ending injury. LeBron, Westbrook, and Trevor Booker are each tied with eight.

Due to the nature of the data and how arbitrary some of the cut-offs are, this is by no means a perfect set of new stats, but I think they’re interesting enough to collect and share. I just want to warn people that there are limits. For example, I was going through the results and saw Hassan Whiteside had one Westbrook. Naturally, I was curious since he’s a big, lumbering guy not known for his fast break buckets. Here’s the play: a shot goes up, hits the rim, an offensive player tries to tip the ball back out to a teammate, and Whiteside comes up with the ball at half-court, credited there as a rebound, and then sprints to the rim and hits a layup. That’s not the worst error, but you can see how a rigid definition can fail.

Next: The Sacramento Kings adjust to life after DeMarcus Cousins

I’ll post complete season results for every player pretty soon after I do some error-checking and ruminate on whether or not I can improve the results. Unless someone from SportVU wants to be nice, this is probably as good as it gets. But it’s nice to see quantifiable information on how special Kevin Love’s passing is and how LeBron James is a freak of nature.