Florida’s defense could power a deep March run
By Chris Stone
To make a run in March, the Florida Gators may have to rely on their defensive efforts
The best team in the Southeastern Conference may not be the Kentucky Wildcats. There are certain parts of the country — those best known as Big Blue Nation — that will no doubt find such a statement blasphemous. After all, Kentucky features a roster filled with five-star talent and just won at least a share of the league’s regular season title for the fourth straight season.
The statement also has some numerical backing. In at least one metric the Florida Gators rank slightly ahead of the Wildcats. KenPom’s adjusted efficiency margin is meant to describe just how good a team has been this season based on their output on both ends of the floor and adjusted for competition and game location. As of Thursday morning, the Gators topped Kentucky by six one hundredths of a point.
To litigate which of these two teams is actually better isn’t really the point of this comparison. To answer that question, we would likely need a far larger sample of games. The point is that Florida and Kentucky are of comparable quality even though the public perception of the two teams — as measured by the AP Poll where the Gators rank 17th and the Wildcats are eighth — is quite different than what their on-court performances would suggest.
The Gators are No. 6 overall at KenPom and everywhere else likes them, too. They are No. 9 in the Sagarin Ratings and No. 7 in ESPN’s predictive metric, BPI. Resume-based metrics are also fans. Florida is No. 5 in the RPI with eight top 50 wins and No. 7 in the KPI. In short, The Gators are really, really good.
Florida is led by Mike White, a second-year head coach who had the unenviable task of following two-time national champion Billy Donovan in Gainesville. Then-athletic director Jeremy Foley spoke highly of the head coach at the time, “Michael White is someone who came to the top of our list very quickly and he checks all of the boxes we were looking for. He is a winner who has a high level of integrity, plays an up-tempo style of play and has the respect of his peers and the basketball community.”
While the recently named SEC Coach of the Year has adopted that up-tempo style — Florida has one of the 50 fastest offenses in the nation, per KenPom — his team really hangs its hat on its defense, which ranks fourth nationally in adjusted efficiency.
Oddly, the Gators don’t rate out as a top flight 2-point defensive team. Taking away easy baskets is the calling card of several other top 10 defensive units like Baylor (43.9 percent, 19th nationally), Georgia Tech (43.6 percent, 16th nationally) and Cincinnati (40.6 percent, 3rd nationally), but Florida’s opponents have shot 45.5 percent on 2s this season, a mark that ranks 41st nationally, per KenPom.
It’s not that the Gators don’t have an interior presence to deter or challenge those shots. They do. Center John Egbunu was one of the best rim protectors in the country before a torn ACL ended his season in February. His replacement, Kevarrius Hayes, has been even better. Hayes is averaging an elite 3.9 blocks per 40 minutes this season. Still, opponents have been able to score somewhat efficiently inside the arc against the Gators.
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Florida is stingier away from the basket, though. Less than a quarter of opponents points have come from behind the 3-point line, one of the lowest marks in Division I. That starts with the Gators denying their opponents the opportunity to attempt a 3-pointer. Several college basketball coaches make a point of taking away the 3 from opposing teams and with White, the numbers suggest the beginning of a trend.
In his first season, Florida’s opponents attempted 32.2 percent (70th nationally) of their total shots from behind the arc. This season, that number is down to 31.0 percent (28th nationally). The Gators have routinely held their opponents under their season average 3-point attempt rate (3PAr) — the ratio of 3s to total field goal attempts — this season. The below chart compares each opponent’s season-long 3PAr with their single game performance against Florida:
Notice how the orange line is consistently below the blue, season-long, line? It’s tough for teams to hurt you from behind the arc if they aren’t getting those shots up. There’s more to this story, too.
Opponents haven’t just struggled to get 3-pointers off against Florida. When they have attempted them, they haven’t gone in. Teams are shooting 30.2 percent on 3s against the Gators this season. That gives Florida the seventh best 3-point defense in the country. Investigating 3-point shooting requires some finesse as the offense controls a significant amount of the variance that goes into it, but there is likely a bit more going on with the fact that the Gators are holding opponents to 0.91 points per possession (PPP) (96th percentile) on 3-point attempts in the halfcourt, per Synergy Sports, while regularly keeping them below their season average:
Florida’s lineup is full of athletes with good length and that helps them defend the 3-point line. The Gators do an impressive job recovering on shooters and getting a hand up to challenge shots as they go up. 73.4 percent of opponents’ catch-and-shoot jumpers are guarded, per Synergy Sports. Those contested shots (0.94 PPP) are less likely to go in than open ones (1.08 PPP) even if the offense controls much of the variance.
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Measuring any defense by its ability to defend 3-pointers is a tricky exercise because of how much influence opposing offenses have in the process, but Florida’s numbers suggest that they just might be a bit of an outlier. The Gators use their length to deny teams quality 3-point looks causing them to regularly underperform their season averages in both 3-point attempt rate and 3-point percentage. It’s a trend that has powered Florida and its defense towards the top of the SEC. Now, it might help propel the Gators on a deep run in March.