Rays Alex Cobb: Cautionary fantasy free agent in 2018?
By Brad Kelly
Alex Cobb posted a solid line this season for the Rays, as it was his first full campaign from TJ surgery. But, could he be fantasy bust heading into 2018?
Starting pitching is as always at a premium, however, this free agency class lacks a clear-cut ace. That leaves such options as Alex Cobb at the top of the class. Cobb posted a solid line in his first full season removed from TJ surgery for the Rays, but can fantasy owners expect the same heading into 2018?
Cobb ended last season with a 3.66 ERA/128 K/1.22 WHIP over 29 starts and 179 innings. He was consistent as well, 3.75 ERA in the first half and 3.52 in the second, while never posting an ERA higher than a 4.66 ERA in any month.
While on the surface Cobb’s stats were plausible and fantasy friendly, there are some concerns in his peripheral stats. Cobb’s GB rate was still an excellent 48%, but he did see his LD rate jump to 22%, and his FB rate climbed to 30%.
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Looking further, his Med contact did drop to 48%, but the Hard contact rate rose to a career-worst 37%. Combine the harder contact and FB increase, and it is easy to why he posted a career-high 22 HR.
Cobb’s command remains excellent, a great sign considering his TJ surgery, but his K/9 dropped by nearly two strikeouts per game to just six. A major cause behind this was him going away from his signature split-change, and focusing more on his fastball/curveball mix.
But, his curveball lacks the movement to be a wipeout pitch, leaving him vulnerable to batters sitting dead read. Right handed hitters also hit Cobb to the tune of a .274 AVG, a far cry from what he was surrendering during his ace level stats in 2013 and 2014.
There have been a ton of teams in on Cobb already, including plenty of AL East clubs that are not the Rays. Cobb’s ERA jumped nearly a run away from the Trop, so it is key where Cobb lands in free agency.
Alex Cobb is not washed up by any means, and the further he gets away from his surgery, the better his stuff should return. But, if he lands in a more hitter-friendly ballpark, and refuses to get back to his wipeout split, all signs point to his ERA hovering around four instead of three.
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He is still worth drafting in fantasy next season, yet if he lands in a tougher situation he is more of an SP4/5 flier. If he can land somewhere favorable, like St. Louis for example, he is more on the SP3 radar as he can mask some of his FB jump.