Top-5 fantasy baseball third base prospects for 2018
By Gavin Tramps
We take a look at the third base prospects that will impact fantasy baseball leagues in 2018.
Playing time is the most critical element when ranking these prospects. Their position within the top-5 (or top-7 if you include the two players that missed the cut), will vary dependent upon playing time.
Third base is a tricky position this season. The best player at the position will not reach the majors for several years. The second best prospect could be the Rookie of the Year if he gets the call to The Show, or he could spend the whole season in the minors.
There are many prospect lists out there, most of which will feature Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as the top third base prospect, but, as our name suggests, our interest is Just Fantasy Baseball. Guerrero makes an appearance on our list of prospects for dynasty leagues, but he is very unlikely to have any fantasy impact this season.
If you are looking for the Rockies’ Ryan McMahon, there is almost no chance that he will man the hot corner in Colorado while Nolan Arenado is around, so McMahon checks in on our first base prospect rankings.
Rafael Devers, the top prospect on last season’s list, hit at Double-A and Triple-A before jumping to the majors to slash .284/.338/.482 with 10 home runs in 58 games.
Also graduating was the Athletics’ Matt Chapman, who hit 14 home runs but thanks to his superb rookie class, he was the fourth-best rookie hitter last season behind Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger, and Paul DeJong.
LONG-TERM INVESTMENTS
These third base prospects are unlikely to have fantasy value this season but are important players to know for dynasty leagues.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (3B-TOR)
The Canadian-born would-be-superstar hit 13 home runs with 84 runs, 76 RBI, and eight stolen bases in Single-A last season with a slash line of .323/.425/.485. That is .910 OPS as an 18-year-old. He has MVP-potential. Undoubtedly he needs to be owned in all dynasty leagues, but there is almost zero chance of him reaching the Major League this season. ETA 2020.
Colton Welker (3B-COL)
As a 19-year-old he destroyed Single-A in half a season with a slash line of .350/.401/.500 and six home runs, but injury prevented a full season of production. Taken in the fourth round of the 2016 draft, Welker has superstar potential and must be owned in dynasty leagues. Comparisons will be made with Rockies’ superstar third baseman Nolan Arenado. ETA 2021.
Nolan Jones (3B-CLE)
The Indians drafted Jones in the second round of the 2016 draft, and it is proving to be an inspired decision after a .317/.430/.482 slash line in Low-A last season. If the projected power materializes, Jones’ contact skills and plate discipline will make him a must-own fantasy hitter. ETA 2021
Jake Burger (3B-CWS)
The 21-year-old hit .271 with four home runs in 200 plate appearances in Single-A last season, which shows the faith the White Sox have in their 11th pick from the 2017 draft. He should be owned in all dynasty leagues before too much hype surrounds him. He is a mature hitter with intriguing fantasy value as his power develops. ETA 2019.
Sheldon Neuse (3B-OAK)
The 23-year-old reached Double-A last year, his third level of the season. He slashed .321/.382/.502 with 16 home runs and 14 stolen bases. The former second-rounder scored 70 runs with 79 RBI and 40 walks to 112 strikeouts. The right-hander could debut as early as late-2018, but the Athletics are set at third base with Matt Chapman. Neuse has only limited fantasy value but another season of double-digit homers and stolen bases will make him an intriguing pick next season. ETA 2019.
James Nelson (3B-MIA)
The Marlins picked Jimmy Nelson in the 15th round of the 2016 draft and hit the jackpot when he slashed .309/.354/.456 with seven home runs, 31 doubles, and six stolen bases in 102 games in Single-A as a 19-year-old. You can avoid him in all but the deepest dynasty leagues, but monitor his 2018 production. ETA 2020.
Ryan Mountcastle (3B-BAL)
Mountcastle was taken by the Orioles with the 36th pick of the 2015 draft. He hit .314 with 15 home runs, 35 doubles, and eight stolen bases in 88 games in High-A last season. Although he struggled with the jump to Double-A, better results are expected in 2018. He strikes out less than 20% of the time but doesn’t take a walk. The 20-year-old could be the Orioles’ third baseman of the future. ETA 2019.
JUST MISSED THE CUT
If everything falls right, these two third base prospects could be in the majors this season.
Christian Arroyo (3B-TB)
It was surprising when Arroyo slashed .439/.471/.682 in April in Triple-A. It was also surprising that the 22-year-old hit three home runs in his first 11 games in the majors. He then hit .165 over his next 23 games and got shipped back to Triple-A. His season only lasted eight more games in the minors before a broken hand ended his year.
Evan Longoria’s departure means a vacancy at the hot corner in Tampa Bay for the first time in many years. There will be a Spring Training battle between Matt Duffy and rookies Willy Adames and Arroyo.
If Arroyo gets the job, he will have immediate fantasy value. He destroyed Triple-A and will have learned from his first taste of the majors. You should be able to draft him very late.
Michael Chavis (3B-BOS)
Red Sox first-round pick from the 2014 draft hit 31 home runs with 35 doubles last season between High-A and Double-A. The 22-year-old slashed .282/.347/.563 to reestablish his fading prospect reputation.
He is has reduced his strikeouts each year, down to 20% in 2017 but he still doesn’t like to take a walk.
With Rafael Devers embedded at third base, Chavis needs to change position or see a trade open up playing time. There is a scenario where he becomes the Red Sox first baseman of the future. The right-hander is likely to get a brief taste of the majors in September, but you don’t need to draft him in fantasy leagues until he is called up.
NUMBER FIVE
Miguel Andujar (3B-NYY)
Unlike the other prospects on this list, the Dominican has an opening for everyday Major League at-bats on Opening Day.
Although Andujar is featured at the top of the depth chart, it seems unlikely the Yankees will risk a 23-year-old rookie at the hot corner rather than snapping up a veteran free agent.
The right-hander experienced three levels in 2017, hitting 17 home runs with 79 runs, 88 RBI and five stolen bases with a .286/.329/.437 slash line over 159 games between Double-A and Triple-A. He tasted the big leagues with two doubles and no strikeouts in eight plate appearances.
If Andujar gets the third base job, then he immediately becomes a must-own prospect. If the Yankees sign a veteran, then you can probably ignore Andujar until he is called up.
NUMBER FOUR
Austin Riley (3B-ATL)
The Braves’ first-round pick in the 2015 draft, slashed .275/.339/.446 between High-A and Double-A with 20 home runs, 71 runs, 74 RBI, two stolen bases and 43 walks to 124 strikeouts. The stats do not adequately illustrate the huge leap he took on reaching Double-A when he hit .315 in 203 plate appearances with .900 OPS.
Two straight seasons with 20 home runs points to serious fantasy production as the 20-year-old’s power continues to develop. Unless you are a big Johan Camargo fan, the rebuilding Braves have a gaping hole at third base. He needs to work on improving his on-base skills and reducing strikeouts, so a full season in Triple-A would help his development.
Riley could win the job straight out of Spring Training, but if not, expect his stay in Triple-A to be short-lived. Obviously, the 20-year-old needs to be owned in all dynasty leagues and should be a draft and stash candidate in single-season leagues.
NUMBER THREE
Colin Moran (3B-PIT)
The trade from the Astros boosts the 2018 fantasy value of the former first-round pick as he will not be blocked by Alex Bregman at third base.
Moran’s prospect shine had dulled before last season’s upturn when he slashed .308/.373/.543 with 18 home runs in 79 games in Triple-A before a brief 11 at-bat stint in the majors.
If he breaks camp, Moran might be platooned for the rebuilding Pirates with veteran David Freese, but although Moran destroyed right-handed pitchers, he was no slouch against lefties, posting .779 OPS.
The opportunity for playing time gives the 25-year-old immediate fantasy value, but enthusiasm needs to be tapered with the knowledge that he will be hitting at the bottom of a poor lineup and the likelihood of sitting against left-handed pitchers.
NUMBER TWO
Brian Anderson (3B-MIA)
The 24-year-old made his MLB debut last season with a slash line of .262/.337/.369 in 25 games, which followed 22 home runs and .853 OPS in 120 games between Double-A and Triple-A.
The harnessing of his projected power gives Anderson intriguing fantasy value when combined with his mature attitude at the plate. He has a 10% walk rate and a strikeout rate below 20%.
If Martin Prado is traded (or moved to the outfield), the former third-rounder could be the Marlins’ Opening Day third baseman which will give him interesting fantasy value in all but the shallowest of leagues this season.
NUMBER ONE
Nick Senzel (3B-CIN)
The second overall pick from the 2016 draft averaged .315 with .908 OPS in his two years in the minors. He hit 14 home runs last season between High-A and Double-A with 81 runs, 65 RBI, and 14 stolen bases, while walking 49 times to 97 strikeouts.
The concern that Senzel might never develop power appears to have dissipated with the 14 home runs and 40 doubles in 2017. Cerebral hitters playing in the same organization as Joey Votto will undoubtedly learn from the veteran’s skills.
Despite only 209 at-bats above High-A, Senzel looks Major League-ready and could be up with the Reds by midseason, or earlier if an opening is created.
He has the ceiling as an All-Star multi-category fantasy contributor, but perhaps more importantly, the 22-year-old probably has the highest floor of any player in the minors.
Senzel is undoubtedly already owned in all dynasty leagues but looks like a draft and stash candidate for single-season formats.
FINAL QUICK TAKE
There is a lot of fantasy potential at third base, but there is also the risk that none of the Top-5 receive significant playing time. Senzel is the class act of the third base prospects and one of the best hitters in the minors, but the Reds do not need to rush him while Eugenio Suarez is producing. Andujar’s fantasy value will be determined by whether the Yankees sign a veteran third baseman.
Frustratingly, Riley might be left in the minors to develop, and Pirates may decide Moran needs more time in Triple-A, especially with Freese on the payroll. The Marlins’ roster is in a state of flux, so maybe Prado plays the outfield, or maybe he mans the hot corner, blocking Anderson.