Fantasy Baseball 2018: Starting pitcher rankings
By Bill Pivetz
Starting pitcher isn’t deep with talent after the top 10, despite the number of pitchers in the league. If you miss one of them, you may be playing catchup.
Starting pitching is a deep position. Five, or six, starters per team multiplied 30 teams comes out to a minimum of 150 starting pitchers in the league. With bench depth, injuries and innings limits, there could be up to a total of 80 starting pitchers drafted in a 10-team fantasy league.
So, with more than 50 percent of the league’s starting pitchers drafted, it’s important to draft the best rotation possible. There may be a couple of breakout names left on the waiver wire at some point but there’s a reason they weren’t drafted. I don’t mind taking a risk on a rookie or veteran pitcher, hoping you picked the right season that they have a good season.
Each starting pitcher can provide you help in each pitching category. There are guys like Jimmy Nelson and Jeff Samardzija that will give you at least 190 strikeouts. If you are rewarded with innings pitched, Gio Gonzalez and Marcus Stroman reached 200 last year.
There were no 20-game winners but Jason Vargas was one of the surprising names to reach 18. And then, there are the stars who can, obviously, contribute to four of the five main pitching categories (ERA, WHIP, strikeouts and wins).
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While you may think rankings 70 names is enough, here are five more to keep your mind on before we get into the main list.
Alex Reyes (STL) – Reyes underwent Tommy John surgery last year. Reports suggest he should be back at the beginning of May. My colleagues Brad Kelly and Gavin Tramps are on different sides when it comes to Reyes this season. Kelly says we shouldn’t forget about him and stash him while Tramps says we shouldn’t believe the hype. Read both pieces and see where you stand on Reyes this season.
Lucas Giolito (CWS) – Giolito had a limited sample size last year with just seven starts. He fared well in those games, finishing with a 2.38 ERA, 0.949 WHIP, 6.8 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 with a 3-3 record. The White Sox may not have the best offense in the AL Central, Giolito will pitch well enough to rack up some quality starts this season. That’s why I hate using wins as a category. Giolito is someone we’ll be talking about in a better light next season.
Marco Estrada (TOR) – Tramps said that only the risky or fools should draft Estrada this season. After looking at his 2017 numbers, I don’t disagree. His walk rate has increased in each season since 2012 while not making any improvement to his strikeout rate. With the offenses in the AL East, things could get scary for Estrada.
Patrick Corbin (ARI) – The first of five Diamondbacks pitchers on my list. This pitching staff was one of the best in the league. Corbin bounced back in a big way after his poor performance in 2016. In 33 games, he had a 4.03 ERA, 1.418 WHIP, 8.4 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9. The ERA will work itself out this season, but the WHIP was the big eye-opener. His walk rate didn’t affect is as much as his 200-plus hits allowed. If he can cut that by 20 percent, he’ll finish higher on this list.
Jake Odorizzi (MIN) – Odorizzi was traded to the Twins earlier this month. If stayed in Tampa Bay, his outlook wouldn’t have been as high. Then again, being my No. 71 starting pitcher may not seem like an upgrade. He joins a pitcher-friendly division based on teams and ballparks. He’ll rebound nicely this year.
Now, here are my top-70 starting pitchers for the 2018 season.
Jordan Montgomery (NYY) – Montgomery was one of the young Yankees players that stepped up last season as the team made a miraculous run to the ALCS. He made 29 starts and finished with a 9-7 record, 3.88 ERA, 1.230 WHIP, 8.3 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9. He had a nice 40.7 ground ball rate but his fly ball and HR/FB rates were higher than desired. Kelly asked if his performance was something to believe in. I think it is.
Brad Peacock (HOU)
Michael Wacha (STL)
Alex Cobb (FA) – Cobb pitched well for the Rays in his first season following Tommy John surgery. Now, a free agent, he will be looking for a new team. Though, his fantasy value depends on where he signs. Kelly wrote about fantasy owners being cautious with Cobb. He saw increases in a few of his batted ball stats, keeping him in the SP4/5 range.
Aaron Sanchez (TOR)
Ervin Santana (MIN)
Tanner Roark (WAS)
J.A. Happ (TOR)
Jacob Faria (TB)
Sean Manaea (OAK) – Manaea regressed in his second season. While he did improve his strikeout rate, he allowed more free passes. He declined his first pitch and swinging strike rates. Manaea maintained the same groundball rate and gave up fewer home runs based on a higher fly ball rate. I believe he’ll make the proper adjustments to his pitch location this season, giving him lower ratio stats and a rebound season. As your SP5, Manaea will be that breakout pitcher on your team.
Julio Teheran (ATL)
Michael Clevinger (CLE)
Lance Lynn (FA)
Rick Porcello (BOS)
Dinelson Lamet (SD) – The Padres rookie finished with a 4.57 ERA, 1.242 WHIP, 10.9 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9 over 21 starts. Lamet didn’t pitch deep into many games, reaching seven innings just two times last season, but was able to make 10 quality starts. With the improvements to the Padres offense and high strikeout rate, I called Lamet a sleeper pick this season.
Taijuan Walker (ARI) – You may call me an Arizona lover, but the stats don’t lie. Walker posted another good stat line over 28 starts. He finished with an ERA under 3.00, 1.328 WHIP, 8.4 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9. The walk rate is the big concern for me. He fell below his career average in first-pitch and swinging strike rates. Though, his groundball and flyball rates went in the right direction. If he can get better control, he’s one of my sleeper starting pitchers this season.
Cole Hamels (TEX)
Blake Snell (TB) – Snell is just one of four pitchers in the Rays starting rotation. Despite an increase in his ERA and WHIP, Snell saw progression in his batted ball stats. His groundball rate rose over seven percent while his line drive rate dropped nine percent. He did have a 5.5 percent jump in his HR/FB rate but I chalk some of that up to the power hitters in the division. It wouldn’t be as high if we pitched elsewhere. With that, I think he’s a deep sleeper this season.
Kevin Gausman (BAL)
Dylan Bundy (BAL)
Chase Anderson (MIL) – Anderson had average success in his first three seasons. Then things changed. In 25 starts, he posted a 2.74 ERA, 1.090 WHIP, 8.5 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 with a 12-4 record. The ratio stats will regress to the mean some this season. The numbers I’m looking rate are his strikeout and walk rates. He improved both stats greatly, posting well above his career averages. The NL Central has two great offenses, one of them being the Brewers. Kelly asked if the breakout is legitimate and I asked if he finally figured it out as a pitcher. Both of those answers are yes.
Charlie Morton (HOU) – After bouncing around for a few seasons, Morton posted his best stat line in years. Tramps calls him a safe pick this season. Read his profile on Morton here.
Kenta Maeda (LAD)
Garrett Richards (LAA) – Richards has had back-to-back injury-riddled seasons. He made just six starts in each season. Richards dealt with a biceps injury after making just one start. He looked good upon his return, posting a 2.74 ERA and 0.9123 WHIP in his final five starts. If he can stay healthy, Richards can be a top-30 pitcher. But, with his history, it’s hard to take that bet.
Drew Pomeranz (BOS)
Trevor Bauer (CLE)
Michael Fulmer (DET) – Fulmer was on a roll last season but an elbow injury shortened his season. He still finished with a 3.83 ERA, 1.154 WHIP, 6.2 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9. I think over a full season, he could finish inside my top 20. Kelly mentioned Fulmer as a player to watch this season.
Jameson Taillon (PIT)
Gio Gonzalez (WAS)
Danny Salazar (CLE)
Jon Gray (COL) – Gray pitched a career season last year. In 110.1 innings, he posted a 3.67 ERA, 1.296 WHIP, 9.1 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9. Pitching in Colorado for half his starts doesn’t do him any favors, but he was able to take advantage of bad matchups. He actually pitched worse on the road than at home. Gray made eight quality starts over his last 11 outings. Gray should be drafted as an SP3.
Danny Duffy (KC)
Jeff Samardzija (SF)
Sonny Gray (NYY) – Gray didn’t pitch poorly after he was traded to New York. I know, that sounds like high praise. But moving to more hitter-friendly parks with power offenses didn’t kill his fantasy value. He kept the same strikeout rate but did see an increase in his walk and home run rates. I wrote about what to expect from him in 2018 here. Tramps is going all in, saying Gray could finish as a top-10 pitcher. I wouldn’t draft him as such but he could finish that way.
Luke Weaver (STL)
Jose Berrios (MIN)
Luis Castillo (CIN)
Johnny Cueto (SF) – Cueto posted career-worst numbers in an injury-riddled season. He made just 25 starts and finished with a 4.52 ERA, 1.1446 WHIP, 8.3 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 with an 8-8 record. Cueto made it into at least the seventh inning just seven times last season. With better offensive support and a healthy offseason, Cueto should be back to his 2016 self.
Zack Godley (ARI) – Godley broke out from nowhere last season, posting a 2.58 ERA, 0.947 WHIP, 65 strikeouts and 21 walks in the first half. He did give up a few runs in the second half but still finished with strong numbers. With the humidor getting installed in Arizona, Godley should give up fewer home runs in Chase Field, resulting in lower ratio stats. He’s the third-best pitcher in Arizona with top-25 potential.
Marcus Stroman (TOR)
Alex Wood (LAD)
David Price (BOS) – Price was pitching well before he got injured. The Red Sox, not wanting to bench him, put him in the bullpen. He did not allow a run in his 8.2 innings. But he is likely to go back to the rotation. Is he worth drafting as a starter?
Rich Hill (LAD)
Lance McCullers (HOU) – McCullers made 22 starts last season, matching the total from his first year. He was placed on the DL twice and posted an 8.23 ERA in his final six starts. With an elite curveball, a developing changeup and a 95 MPH fastball, McCullers has the tools to be a top-20 starting pitcher. Tramps calls him a high-risk, high-reward pick.
Kyle Hendricks (CHC)
Jon Lester (CHC)
Jake Arrieta (FA)
Shohei Ohtani (LAA) – There’s been a lot written about Ohtani since news of his posting broke, especially by me. I wrote three different pieces on his this offseason, most recently about him joining the Angels. He had a poor first outing, allowing a home run in 31 pitches, 17 of them were strikes. This should be noted as nothing more than a learning curve. He’ll be just fine. Plus, the DH eligibility doesn’t hurt.
Masahiro Tanaka (NYY) – On the surface, Tanaka had a down year, making sense of why he opted in for 2018. However, he pitched better in the second half. He posted a 3.77 ERA, 1.061 WHIP, 91 strikeouts and 14 walks in 76.1 innings. Kelly writes about what Tanaka staying in New York for fantasy.
Gerrit Cole (HOU) – Cole made a career-high 33 starts. Unfortunately, that came with some regression. He posted a higher ERA and WHIP. Then again, that will usually happen when someone pitches in 90 more innings than the season prior. He did improve his walk and strikeouts rates though. Now, a member of the Astros, Cole won’t have the pressure of being his team’s No. 1 pitcher. The AL West improved across the board but he should still finish as an SP2.
Jose Quintana (CHC)
Dallas Keuchel (HOU)
James Paxton (SEA) – Paxton was one of the many Mariners pitchers bit by the injury bug last season. He was able to make a career-high 24 starts and finish with a 2.98 ERA, 1.103 WHIP, 10.3 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9. His 2.61 FIP suggests that he could have pitched like this over a full season. This is why I think Paxton could finish as a top-10 pitcher this season. The offense is good around him to get him wins. He throws hard enough to reach 200 strikeouts over 30 starts. He’s worth his eighth-round ADP.
Aaron Nola (PHI)
Robbie Ray (ARI) – Another Arizona pitcher with a high fantasy outlook this season. Ray improved in most aspects of his game. He gave up fewer runs despite a lower groundball and higher fly ball rate. Ray posted a career-high 12.1 K/9 with a slightly elevated walk rate. I projected him as a top-10 pitcher if he can reach the 200-inning plateau. He’s a high-end SP2 in standard drafts.
Chris Archer (TB)
Yu Darvish (CHC) – Darvish struggled last season, posting a combined 3.86 ERA, 1.163 WHIP, 10.1 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 between the Rangers and Dodgers. Despite his playoff performance, he pitched well in his short time in the National League. He hasn’t been as durable as we would like, but when he is healthy, he’s one of the best pitchers in the league. Signing with the Cubs should help him stay healthy. I would give him one more chance on your team.
Carlos Martinez (STL)
Carlos Carrasco (CLE)
Justin Verlander (HOU)
Jacob deGrom (NYM) – deGrom was the only healthy Mets starting pitcher last season. He posted great walk and strikeout rates along with a good ERA and WHIP. Soon-to-be 30 years old, deGrom is entering just his fifth season. While Syndergaard is the ace of the rotation, deGrom is the more reliable option. He just might be ranked too high.
Luis Severino (NYY) – After his full 2017 season, fantasy experts are going head-over-heels for Severino. He posted a 2.98 ERA, 1.040 WHIP, 10.7 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 in 31 starts. Looking at that line, it’s hard not to blame them. I wrote about him, asking if he’s being overhyped or undervalued entering this season. It’s to say he’s being undervalued as my No. 9 starting pitcher but 210-plus strikeout potential and a sub-3.50 ERA, he is an ace in the making.
Zack Greinke (ARI) – The fifth and final Diamondbacks starter on my list. A couple of years removed from his 1.66-ERA season, Greinke posted a 3.20 ERA, 1.072 WHIP, 9.6 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9 in 32 starts. He is the one pitcher that won’t be affected much by the humidor. Greinke has the skill to post a sub-3.00 ERA. The benefit is that the decrease in home runs will give him a boost.
Noah Syndergaard (NYM) – Syndergaard was a big disappointment for fantasy owners last season. He made just seven starts but only four went at least six innings. He returned at the end of the season but threw just 31 combined pitches in his final two games. I questioned if you can safely draft Syndergaard. To summarize, I don’t project another season-shortening injury like the one he had last season. He should be drafted confidently as a top-10 pitcher.
Stephen Strasburg (WAS) – Strasburg has shaken off the injury-prone label over the last couple of seasons. While hasn’t made 30 starts since 2014, he posted his best ERA and WHIP last season. Strasburg finished with a 2.52 ERA, 1.015 WHIP, 10.5 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9. He has plenty of offense and defense to support him. He almost made it into my top five.
Madison Bumgarner missed a big chunk of the season after suffering a dirt bike injury. I clearly don’t expect that to happen again, so we’re in line for another dominant season from MadBum.
The Giants rotation may not be that good and Bumgarner can only pitch once every five days. He can’t do it all. The front office improved the team at third base and the outfield, giving MadBum two top defensive options behind him. They are also better bats than what they had, giving him more run support.
Bumgarner was pitching like his 2016 self but with his batted ball stats. They were above his career averages, but still worthy enough to finish as a top-10 pitcher. AT&T Park is a pitcher’s park, along with Petco Park and soon-to-be Chase Field. He’s good enough to pitch out of trouble in Coors Field and Dodger Stadium.
Bumgarner is at the back-end of my elite pitching tier. The first four pitchers will be drafted before the third round. You may be able to get Bumgarner then but it depends on the other owners in your league. If you can get him in the fourth, I would feel very confident in him as my SP1.
Corey Kluber has been on everyone’s radar since 2013. He won the Cy Young the following season. 2017 was yet another good season from the 31-year-old.
In his second Cy Young award-winning season, Kluber posted a 2.25 ERA, 0.869 WHIP, 11.7 K/9 and 1.6 BB/9. Those are ridiculous numbers. He won 18 games for the third time in his career.
The only thing you have to worry about when drafting Kluber is the possibility of some regression. After his first Cy Young, Kluber finished with a 3.49 ERA and 1.054 WHIP. I don’t expect that big of a jump in his ratio stats, it’ll be hard for him to replicate those numbers.
You may be able to wait until the end of the second round to draft Kluber. It all depends on how your leaguemates value starting pitchers. Kluber could go first or second, leaving one of the other three for you. I wouldn’t complain about that, either.
The AL Central has three rebuilding teams, giving Kluber a clear advantage over the top-three pitchers. I wouldn’t mind if you reach for him as your first pick in your draft.
Chris Sale dominated in his first season in the AL East. Now, he’s going to have to be that much better, especially against the Yankees.
He pitched in 32 games, posting a 2.90 ERA, 0.970 WHIP, 12.9 K/9 and 1.0 BB/9 in the process. Sale finished second in the AL Cy Young voting. He would have won in any other year if it weren’t for Kluber.
While he did see an increase in his fly ball rate, not many left the park. He was ahead in counts 66.8 percent of the time after the first pitch and had batters swinging at everything. Sale posted a 14.9 swinging strike rate, 36.2 O-Swing rate, 49.9 swing rate and a 70.1 contact rate.
The Red Sox helped him out as well by signing JD Martinez for extra lineup support. Then again, he probably wouldn’t have needed it. Sale struck out 308 batters last season, the only pitcher to reach at least 300 strikeouts since Clayton Kershaw in 2015.
If you play in a points league, Sale becomes the top pitcher. While you can make up the difference later in your draft, leaving 300 strikeouts on the board is a hard pill to swallow.
The Blue Jays and Rays won’t compete. The Orioles could score some runs or strikeout a ton. He’ll cruise to another year of dominance and it’ll be better if he was on your fantasy team.
After comparing him to Kershaw, it was hard not to put Max Scherzer as my No. 1 pitcher for this season. He has three Cy Young awards, including two in back-to-back seasons. It’s hard to pitch better than a two no-hitter season, but he figured out how last year.
Scherzer made 31 starts, just a bit off from his recent average. He still threw in 200.2 innings with a 2.51 ERA, 0.902 WHIP, 12.0 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9. If he would have made another start or two, based on his skill, he would have lowered his ratio stats while adding more strikeouts.
Scherzer is the best pitcher in the NL East. It helps that the teams he faces don’t have the best offenses. There are some players in each lineup that can do damage but the lineup as a whole wouldn’t scare me as a Scherzer owner.
He’s been close to 300 strikeouts but was 16 away in 2016 and 32 away last season. If he can reach that plateau this year, then there will be a big debate on the No. 1 pitcher for next season.
Clayton Kershaw was yet another big name to miss some time last season. He made 21 and 27 starts in his last two seasons, respectively. With a healthy prognosis, Kershaw should return to his normal ways this season.
He threw a 2.31 ERA, 0.949 WHIP, 10.4 K/9 and 1.5 BB/9 in 175.0 innings. Kershaw still managed to win 18 games. He missed out on his fourth NL Cy Young award. If he would have made 30 starts, he might have won.
Kershaw saw a two-percent decline in his groundball rate while seeing a three-percent jump in his fly ball rate. His HR/FB rate more than doubled between 2016 and 2017, 7.5 to 15.9 percent.
Dodgers manager Dave Roberts already named Kershaw the Opening Day starter, like they had any other option. This will be his eighth Opening Day start. In his first spring training start, he threw just three pitches to an aggressive Mariners team. Limiting his innings now will lead to another successful season.
When healthy, Kershaw is the best pitcher in real and fantasy baseball. This is a no-brainer pick. Lock down your pitching early with Kershaw and build the rest of your rotation later.
As you can see, you can make the case for any of the top four to be the No. 1 pitcher. They have the skill to strike out close to 300 batters if not more while keeping their ratios low.
That is someone you need on your team, especially in today’s “long ball” era. You could wait a couple of more rounds to land a guy like Greinke or Severino but you’ll have to add to your rotation earlier than the other owners.
This is why doing mock drafts is key. It allows you to test different strategies. See how your team looks if you go with Kershaw compared to Severino as your SP1.
The final position rankings for relief pitchers will be out later this week.