Red Sox David Price: Fantasy Lottery ticket or lost cause?

By Brad Kelly | Feb 8, 2018

BOSTON, MA - SEPTEMBER 27: David Price /

David Price has failed to live up to expectations since joining the Red Sox. But, could 2018 be the year he lives up to his resume in Boston, or disappoint again?

The big stage is welcoming to some, yet makes even the strongest competitors wilt under the pressure. David Price is no stranger to the big stage and has earned plenty of accolades, but his time in Boston has been nothing short of a soap opera. Between feuds with Red Sox legends, to mediocre results on the mound, he has not lived up to the price tag.

But, could things turn around in 2018?

Before 2017, Price has amassed 1,672 innings on his left arm. Somehow, he has avoided any serious injury over that span, yet last season the injury bug caught up with him. Last spring, the Red Sox feared he had done serious damage to his elbow.

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He was shut down for all of April and only made one start in May, before finally joining the rotation in June. He ended the 2017 campaign with a 3.38 ERA/1.19 WHIP/76 K/24 BB over 11 starts and five relief appearances.

There is no reason to get into Price’s past, we all know he has been a perennial fantasy ace but it is important to look at his value as it stands now.

In 2016, his first season in Boston, he ended the year with a 3.99 ERA/1.20 WHIP/228 K line over a league-best 35 starts. Digging deeper into his profile that season, his 3.52 FIP points to a ton bad luck that year.

Putting things into perspective, he surrendered 22% LD, 44% GB, 34% FB, 19% Soft, and 35% Hard contact rates in 2016

Last season, all be it abbreviated, 22% LD, 40% GB, 39% FB, 21% Soft, 47% Soft, and 33% Hard contact rates.

Both those clips are very similar to his stellar 2015, 23% LD, 40% GB, 36% FB, 17% Soft, 55% Med, and 28% Hard, and that season he nearly won a Cy Young award.

Price has said in interviews that doctors have classified his elbow as “unique”. He did not opt for surgery this deep into his career which is a concern, but it is not as though he velocity dipped at all last season. He battled his command more, but the raw stuff has not fallen off the cliff that some have advertised.

One of the most encouraging signs in terms of his fantasy value was just how dominant he was in the postseason out of the bullpen. The team did not fare well against the Astros, yet Price blanked their stacked lineup over six innings while striking out six.

Now with a healthy offseason under his belt, and coming off the first season since 2013 where he did not throw for more than 200 innings, all of a sudden Price becomes a very appealing buy-low candidate. His early ADP sits near the 125 overall spot, a steep drop from the top-round pick he was just a few seasons ago.

The Red Sox will need Price to pitch like an ace to keep up in the AL. Digging deep into his profile we see that his rates are not dipping at an alarming enough rate to think that he is a 4.00 pitcher now. The velocity is there, he still shuts down LHH and definitely has a chip on his shoulder, which cannot hurt.

Next: Fantasy Baseball 2018: Dynasty Pitching Prospects to Target

The elbow is a concern, but that could be said for every pitcher. With his raw stuff, relatively rested arm, and resume, his current price tag is a steal. Do not be scared off of Price based on his hectic first two years with Boston, The talent is still there to be a fantasy SP2.

Look for an ERA around 3.50 and 200+K again in 2018.

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