Only the brave or foolish will draft Blue Jays Marco Estrada
By Gavin Tramps
The smoke and mirrors illusion of Marco Estrada is finally over. Draft him at your peril.
Last year was an erratic season for Marco Estrada. The 34-year-old right-hander from Sonora, Mexico was coming off the best two seasons of his career, having posted 3.30 ERA over 57 starts in 2015-16.
Although wary of his low strikeout rate and two years of benefitting from sub-10 HR/FB rate, fantasy players could not resist and Estrada went with an ADP of 176. The next starting pitcher off the board was the Diamondbacks’ Robbie Ray.
He pitched well in his first 10 starts, 70 strikeouts in 62.2 innings (10.05 SO/9) and 3.30 ERA. This included a 12-strikeout, one-run outing against the Orioles on May 21.
June and July were dire, as Estrada posted a 7.86 ERA. There was the inevitable drop in strikeout rate to 8.63 SO/9 and he was walking everyone (5.81 BB/9).
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Although he picked up six wins over the final two months of the season (proving yet again that pitcher wins is the toughest category to predict), Estrada’s strikeout rate continued to fall, down to 6.82 SO/9, but at least he steadied the walk rate.
And so to 2018. Estrada is expected to slot into the middle of the Blue Jays’ rotation, behind Marcus Stroman and veteran J.A. Happ.
If Stroman is one of the best pitchers in the game at inducing ground balls, then Estrada is at the opposite end of the scale. Last season, Estrada finished with 30.3% groundball rate, the lowest mark of any starter (min 100 IP).
Allowing fly balls 50% of the time is dancing with danger in the most spacious of ballparks, but doing it at the Rogers Center is a recipe for disaster. Estrada’s results could have been far worse had he not benefited from a below-league-average rate of 11.2 HR/FB.
Previously, Estrada’s changeup was his best pitch, but last season, hitters took advantage of it. He will need to recapture its effectiveness if he is to provide any fantasy value next season.
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The Blue Jays face the power of the Giancarlo Stanton/Aaron Judge combo 20 times in 2018. Draft Estrada at your peril.