MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – Saturday June 2
Welcome to the Saturday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind MLB DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s MLB DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference, to help you build your best line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
Friday’s MLB DFS was all about which offenses you built around as the Athletics went off for 16 runs backed by a two homerun night from Matt Olson while the “chalk” in Coors Field hit big time with the Rockies and Dodgers combining for 19 runs and frankly if you didnt a stack if either the A’s or Coors Field on this night you were probably left well behind in the cash line due to the popularity of these spots. Sometimes the chalk is chalk for a reason and fading it is a dangerous game.
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Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your MLB DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
MLB DFS – Starting Pitching Overview – Early Slate:
We get a nice little seven game early slate on FantasyDraft that kicks off at 2:10PM EST with three games starting at this time and the other four games kicking off two hours later at 4PM EST. The biggest issue I see on this early slate is weather as two of the best name arms in Trevor Bauer and Masahiro Tanaka are also in really bad weather spots as there is heavy rain expected throughout the day in Baltimore and Minnesota which could make this early slate a four game slate very quickly. In looking at the weather, I think Trevor Bauer ($23.4K) is likely to be able to pitch eventually as the game may start in a delay but it appears the rain should clear mid-afternoon which would give him a window to pitch.
My one concern here would be if Bauer goes through his normal pre-game routine then is forced to sit through a delay before taking the mound. That warm-up then cool-down start and stop for a pitcher can be killer and initially my gut says to just avoid the pitchers in the weather games on this early slate and focus my time elsewhere.
The issue is, the rest of the options are frankly not all that appealing which SHOCKER is leading me towards to punt plays at pitching as it seemingly does for me most days. Chad Kuhl ($12.1K) gets a road start against the Cardinals in the very same spot and match-up that James Taillon crushed last night with a 31 fantasy point, 8 inning, 6 K shutout and frankly this is the perfect pitcher to go back to the well with today. The reason so many were on Taillon last night is that he dominates right-handed batters and struggles with lefties and the Cardinals outside of Matt Carpenter are essentially entirely right-handed. Well Chad Kuhl is basically the same exact kind of pitcher with a 23.2% K rate against RHB and a miniscule .096 ISO and 28% HC rate compared to a .283 ISO and 41% HC rate versus LHB. Assuming the Cardinals go right-handed heavy, Kuhl should flourish in this spot just as Taillon did for many on Friday.
James Shields ($10.2K) takes the mound at home against the Brewers and no, you are not yet in the stacks section of Picks and Pivots, I actually thinking Sheilds is in play as an SP2 on this slate. I know it may seem crazy but Shields has actually been quite solid this season and in recent starts has allowed 3 or fewer ER in 5 of his last 6 outings. What is really interesting with Shields this season is how he has essentially eliminate the HR ball issues he had a year ago when he surrendered over a 2 HR/9 rate to batters and this year it sits at only .5 HR/9 and I think the change is actually sustainable as Shields has changed his pitch types year over year, throwing 30% sinkers and change-ups which is more than double the amount he threw those pitches last season.The Brewers strike out at a 24% clip against RHP this season which is the 8th highest mark in baseball so there is some sneaky K upside here as well for Shields. On a short slate like this I actually think Shields is an interesting GPP option and I think the name “value” alone will have people more likely to stack against him than use a pitcher who is actually pitching quite well in 2018.
MLB DFS – Early Slate Hitting:
The one thing this early slate certainly does not lack is offense as Vegas is projecting 6 teams (Yankees, Cardinals, Indians, A’s, Brewers and Nationals) to score 4.65 runs or more so finding bats is going to be much easier than finding arms it seems. With my mindset of using pitchers against the Cardinals and Brewers as noted previously, this leaves me with four top teams in great spots to pick and choose from and frankly, all the salary room I could possibly need.
The Indians are the team I am looking to start my stack with today as Lance Lynn is simply awful against left-handed bats, sporting a .218 ISO and 42% HC rate this season and will have to face an Indians team that is LOADED with left-handed power. seriously – take a stroll down the 1-5 in this Indians offense and tell me how Lynn makes it through this gauntlet.
Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, Jose Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion and Yonder Alonso all have .220 plus ISO’s versus RHP this season and all but Ramirez have a 35% or higher HC rate. Now Lynn has been able to get an elite 60% GB rate against LHB this season but what I love about the top 5 here is that they are primarily fly ball hitters with every single one of these hitters (except Brantley for what its worth) having a higher fly ball rate than ground ball rate against RHP over the last two seasons. With the rain in the area it will mean high humidity which typically means bigger offensive production and on a short slate like this, the Indians offense as the ability and upside to set the cash line on their own and I want in.
The Nationals bats are probably my favorite secondary stack against RHP Brandon McCarthy, as even though McCarthy’s numbers are nothing to scoff at, I am simply looking at a game environment where we have the best pure hitting weather on the slate with temperatures in the high 80’s and wind blowing out near 10 MPH to left field. McCarthy is giving up a .194 IS) and 33% HC to LHB this season, not great numbers but also not numbers we need to take fringe guys against – the thing is the Nationals have this guy Bryce Harper who has a .365 ISO and 49.5% HC rate against RHP this season and can be paired quite nicely with Matt Adams who has a .336 ISO and 50% HC rate against RHP this season.
The one interesting way to approach this slate may be to actually game stack this spot, especially if we lose the ability to target the high-priced Yankee bats due to weather. Now Gio Gonzalez is not a bad pitcher by any means, in fact he has done a great job at limiting hard contact and the home run ball which is exactly why I think the Braves bats will be ignored on this slate which makes me intrigued by the thought of low owned bats like Freddie Freeman and Ozzie Albies in this elite hitting environment and keep an eye on who catches as either Tyler Flowers OR Kurt Suzuki would make a great addition to a low owned Braves stack here today.
MLB DFS Sample Line-Up and Slate Overview:
The line-up below is meant to be illustrative only to further back-up the logic laid out in previous slides and is not meant to be an optimal line-up or a roster you simply plug and play on your own!
More from FanSided
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- NFL rumors: 49ers trending toward contract drama with defensive star
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- MLB Rumors: Potential Braves reunion, Lance Lynn no-trade clause and Orioles deadline intentions
SP: Chad Kuhl ($12.1K)
SP: James Shields ($10.2K)
IF: Freddie Freeman ($10.1K)
IF: Ozzie Albies ($10.1K)
IF: Francisco Lindor ($10K)
OF: Jose Ramirez ($11.1K)
OF: Michael Brantley ($9.2K)
OF: Bryce Harper ($10.8K)
UTIL: Trea Turner ($9.1K)
UTIL: Michael Brantley ($9.2K)
Slate Overview: I like this early slate today but we are going to have to watch thee weather here and my gut instinct says to cross he Yankees/Orioles game off your player pool initially. There is definitely a path in my mind to double punting on two SP sites and just loading up on a plethora of big bats in elite hitting spots today and hoping your sticks carry you across the cash line!
MLB DFS – Main Slate Overview
The Main Slate looks to be one where I want to pay up for pitching as we have some elite arms in the slate including Justin Verlander, Jacob deGrom and Zack Greinke. As much as I love Verlander as a pitcher, I have no interest in picking on the Red Sox bats which leads to me targeting two arms in deGrom and Greinke who get solid home match-ups.
Jacob deGrom ($22.2K) has been absolutely nasty this season with a 33% K rate and any time he is pitching at home in Citi Field he becomes a lock and load play for me. deGrom this season has a 1.45 ERA and 38% K rate at home after putting up a 31% K rate at home last year with a 3.34 ERA and if you dig back through his season stats you will see his metrics at home verses away are consistently better year after year. The fact that deGrom is only a -115 home favorite likely has more to do with the offense tha surrounds him and the lack of run support he is getting but in y mind the dominant K upside he has makes him the top pitcher to build around on this slate.
Zack Greinke ($20.6K) has been just as dominant at home this year with a 1.65 ERA and a 26% K rate which falls right in line with his 2017 data as a pitcher who had better metrics at home and now he gets the added benefit of the humidor effect in Chase Field where the roof will be closed tonight. Greinke gets perhaps the best match-up on the board against the Marlins and it is no shocker that Miami has one of the lowest totals on the board tonight which puts Greinke in position to not only deliver a great run prevention spot but his 27% K rate on the season gives you the kind of upside that when paired with deGrom could make your team tough to surpass.
If you want to pay up at both pitching spots tonight you are going to need value bats and that means saying goodbye to Coors Field but I actually do not mind the Coors fade here tonight with Walker Buehler and German Marquez on the mound. Buehler is an elite pitching talent with serious K upside and Marquez is a ground ball arm who limits hard contact so the fade of the popular bats here is actually something I am fine with on this Main Slate.
CorIf you are looking for a game to stack with cheap bats and bad pitchers look no further than the Reds and Padres with Eric Lauer and Matt Harvey on the mound. If this game was in Great American Ballpark I could see the ownership flowing here but with it being in Petco and only an 8.5 run total I expect it flies a bit under the radar and that is OK with me.
Lauer is a pitcher we want to attach with RHB as he is giving up a .214 ISO and 43% HC rate to RHB this season so locking in Eugenio Suarez and Adam Duvall feels like a great start in your line-up tonight. Suarez has a massive .429 ISO versus LHP this season while Duvall is not far behind with a .348 ISO mark with both hitters sporting over 55% hard contact rates. I don’t care what park you play in, that kind of power and hard contact is going to do damage in even the most pitcher friendly of stadiums.
The Padres meanwhile get to tango with Matt Harvey, a pitcher with a .347 ISO and 41% HC rate to left-handed hitters which puts guys like Eric Hosmer, Travis Jankowski and even punt plays like Freddy Galvis or Cory Spangenburg in play if they crack the line-up. Outside of Christian Villaneuva at $9K, the Padres are dirt cheap across the industry so pending the line-up that San Diego rolls out, you can find multiple paths to stack against a pitcher in Harvey who gives up a ton of hard contact and has an inability to miss bats all while being able to pay up for two high-end arms on this slate.
MLB DFS Sample Line-Up and Slate Overview:
The line-up below is meant to be illustrative only to further back-up the logic laid out in previous slides and is not meant to be an optimal line-up or a roster you simply plug and play on your own!
More from FanSided
- Cardinals Rumors: Surprise extension, Dylan Carlson-Yankees link, Rays trade idea
- USWNT vs. Vietnam: Key takeaways before they take on the Dutch
- NFL rumors: 49ers trending toward contract drama with defensive star
- Steelers avoid any camp drama with latest roster move
- MLB Rumors: Potential Braves reunion, Lance Lynn no-trade clause and Orioles deadline intentions
SP: Jacob deGrom ($22.2K)
SP: Zack Greinke ($20.6K)
IF: Eugenio Suarez ($10.2K)
IF: Christian Villaneuva ($9K)
IF: Eric Hosmer ($7.6K)
OF: Adam Duvall ($6.4K)
OF: Travis Jankowski ($7.4K)
OF: Manuel Margot ($5.5K)
UTIL: Frdedy Galvis ($5.6K)
UTIL: Amed Rosario ($5.5K)
Slate Overview: With so much elite pitching on this slate I think that paying up for the high-end K arms is the way to build your rosters and look to find some cheaper low-owned stacks around them. I think deGrom and Greinke are in such good spots that it is worth fading Coors to lock in the pitching and use some cheap game stacks like Reds/Padres where you have arguably the two worst pitchers on the slate to find a sneaky edge on the field! Enjoy your Saturday all!
Next: DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown - Saturday June 2
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