DFS MLB Game By Game Breakdown – Wednesday, June 13

Welcome into the Wednesday edition of the Game By Game Breakdown article! We have 9 games at hand for tonight so let’s dig in!

Tuesday night was another solid night for us in DFS MLB! I really thought that the injury to Mike Foltynewicz was going to wind up costing us the slate but Carlos Correa and Cody Bellinger came through late. A score of 135 was plenty to coast in cash games and we even slipped into some tournaments.

There is some afternoon baseball today that is split into smaller slates depending on what site you play on the most. When it’s split like this, I tend to focus my attention on the biggest slate of the day as far as the article goes. I’ll likely put out a lineup for each slate because let’s face it – we love playing daily fantasy baseball. If you didn’t, you’d be reading something else right now. Keeping that in mind, this is a really fun slate on tap with some good pitching options.

DFS MLB – Nationals at Yankees

Nationals Probable Starter – Erick Fedde, RHP 

4.76 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 26.1 strikeout rate

It took roughly 30 seconds to find the chalk offense of the night as the Yankees get to face a very unproven pitcher at home tonight. I left off the splits for Fedde because anything to take out of an under six inning sample size isn’t worth it. I want the best hitters from New York and trying to make them fit with some of the ace pitchers tonight is going to be the challenge. The Yanks are so expensive with even guys like Miguel Andujar sitting at $3,700 on FanDuel. Brett Gardner is the cheapest but also carries the lowest ceiling. I will have at least one lineup with the cheapest pitcher I feel can get me some points and a major Yankees stack tonight.

Yankees Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Aaron Judge, Brett Gardner, Greg Bird, Giancarlo Stanton

Secondary Options – Gary Sanchez, Gleyber Torres,

Yankees Probable Starter – Sonny Gray, RHP 

4.81 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and 20.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .221 average, .288 wOBA, 24.4 fly ball rate and 37.7 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .277 average, .358 wOBA, 36.4 fly ball rate and 32.7 hard contact rate

Gray appears to be righting the ship finally after being utterly useless for fantasy for most of the season. He draws a very interesting matchup tonight as the Nationals offense continues to scuffle theses past couple of weeks. They rank 28th in wOBA over the last 14 days and got owned by old man C.C. Sabathia last night. Here’s where things get fun for Gray – most of the Nationals best hitters are lefty and that’s one thing that Gray has done well. If he can control Bryce Harper, Juan Soto and Adam Eaton, Anthony Rendon is the righty hitter that has power to really hurt Gray. Rendon has an OPS of .723 against righties this year. I don’t think I’ll trust Gray in cash tonight because of who else toes the rubber but he’s a great tournament play. I’m likely not using Nationals unless it’s a stack situation.

Nationals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Bryce Harper, Juan Soto, Trea Turner, Adam Eaton

Home Run Pick – Aaron Judge

DFS MLB – Rockies at Phillies

Rockies Probable Starter – Tyler Anderson, LHP 

4.81 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 20.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .300 average, .406 wOBA, 36.1 fly ball rate and 29.7 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .239 average, .321 wOBA, 41.6 fly ball rate and 34.2 hard contact rate

I do not think Anderson is a good pitcher but the Phillies have been so bad overall offensively lately I think you can at least look at Anderson as a deep flier. If the Phillies put out their normal lineup against a lefty, Odubel Herrera might be the only lefty hitter in the lineup. Philly has the third worst average and the second worst strikeout rate in the past 14 days, not counting last night. I just can’t trust any Phillies hitters until they pull out of this a little bit. Herrera is a deep GPP option. Anderson is close to the minimum for a pitcher on FanDuel and there’s a chance for 30 points from him tonight.

Phillies Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Odubel Herrera, Rhys Hoskins, Carlos Santana, Cesar Hernandez

Phillies Probable Starter – Nick Pivetta, RHP 

3.76 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 27.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .248 average, .314 wOBA, 42.5 fly ball rate and 31.0 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .224 average, .264 wOBA, 32.9 fly ball rate and 24.2 hard contact rate

If we were interested in Aaron Nola last night, we have to give Pivetta a long look this evening. Now, I’m not suggesting that Pivetta is in the same class as Nola because he’s not. This is more attacking just how poor the Colorado offense is on the road. The Rockies strikeout 23.3 percent of the time on rank in the bottom five of most offensive categories on the road. Do I trust Pivetta given his recent form? Trust might be a strong word and he’s not my cash pitcher. However, if he dropped a 50 spot tonight I wouldn’t be surprised in the least. If you want to get after Pivetta, you’re going to want lefty bats. I’m finding it difficult to pay up for Charlie Blackmon and even Carlos Gonzalez seems expensive. They both do have solid matchups in a hitter’s park, even with their price.

Rockies Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Charlie Blackmon

Secondary Options – Carlos Gonzalez, Nolan Arenado

Home Run Pick – Odubel Herrera

DFS MLB – Twins at Tigers

Twins Probable Starter – Jose Berrios, RHP 

3.66 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and 25.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .203 average, .258 wOBA, 38.7 fly ball rate and 30.4 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .207 average, .266 wOBA, 40.4 fly ball rate and 27.5 hard contact rate

We’ve arrived at one of the pitchers who is in strong consideration for a cash game option. Detroit doesn’t carry the high strikeout rate like we normally like to target but Berrios can strike anyone out when he’s going at his best. He faced the Tigers recently and went for 55 FanDuel points. About the only reason I won’t use him tonight is there is a pitcher who’s only $400 more and is more consistent. This is hard to quantify, but the Detroit team likely won’t be too happy to come into work today after Miguel Cabrera was lost for the season due to a bicep injury last night. I won’t be using any Tigers bats but I will point out that both Nicholas Castellanos and James McCann have some very positive BvP data against Berrios. It’s a small sample size(under 15 at-bats) but they’ve each hit at least .455 off of him and McCann has two homers.

Tigers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Nicholas Castellanos, Leonys Martin, James McCann

Tigers Probable Starter – Matthew Boyd, LHP 

3.20 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 19.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .175 average, .234 wOBA, 47.6 fly ball rate and 47.6 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .208 average, .284 wOBA, 47.4 fly ball rate and 31.4 hard contact rate

By almost every single metric, Boyd has actually been a pretty solid pitcher this season through 12 starts. The fly ball rates and the low strikeout rate are pretty scary, but I don’t think I’d use Boyd personally. Minnesota is hitting pretty well lately and I might go right back to the well with Ehire Adrianza tonight. I had him basically locked in last night until I saw how cheap Carlos Correa was and switched. Adrianza went on to hit a grand slam but at least Correa had a big game as well. I also might take a run at Max Kepler. He hits lefties well and the fly ball rate to lefties makes it appear Boyd is vulnerable. I think those two would be it for me. Miguel Sano is striking out over 40 percent in the past two weeks and Brian Dozier isn’t hitting well. They’re both still full price and I’ll pass on them until they wake up a bit.

Twins Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Ehire Adrianza

Secondary Options – Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario, Eduardo Escobar

Home Run Pick – Eddie Rosario

DSF MLB – Giants at Marlins

Giants Probable Starter – Andrew Suarez, LHP 

5.06 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 23.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .200 average, .240 wOBA, 35.9 fly ball rate and 26.8 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .299 average, .372 wOBA, 31.3 fly ball rate and 44.6 hard contact rate

Can I just say how much I can’t stand when the Marlins offense is in a good spot? First off, they’re not very good. They’re just good enough to annoy the snot out of you if you play a pitcher against them. Secondly, the hitters that I’d want to have some interest in tonight just feel too expensive in Marlins Park. J.T. Realmuto is up to $3,700 on FanDuel and Brian Anderson is $3,500. It just feels gross paying that much for guys that don’t carry the most power. They seem more like floor plays than ceiling plays and I probably won’t pay that. Starlin Castro might be the only Marlin I play tonight because I’d feel like he’s a bit safer and his price is under $3,000. I wouldn’t tempt fate by playing Suarez.

Marlins Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – J.T. Realmuto, Starlin Castro

Secondary Options – Brian Anderson

Marlins Probable Starter – Caleb Smith, LHP 

3.70 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 29.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .300 average, .338 wOBA, 34.0 fly ball rate and 40.0 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .159 average, .263 wOBA, 56.6 fly ball rate and 36.0 hard contact rate

The Giants faced a lefty on Monday night and if they play basically the same lineup, Brandon Crawford will be the only true lefty. If the splits hold up for Smith, he should be able to have his way against San Francisco. The rub here is the Giants have four players above .370 in wOBA against lefty pitching. The real issue in this game is Caleb Smith has seen his strikeouts really drop off. He’s only been above five in a game once the past seven starts. Between that and the fact he doesn’t get to pitch the sixth all that often, I won’t be dealing with Smith. I would stack the Giants or go with a safe hitter like Andrew McCutchen instead of going for a one-off.

Giants Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Andrew McCutchen, Buster Posey

Secondary Options – Evan Longoria, Nick Hundley, Brandon Crawford, Mac Williamson

Home Run Pick – Starlin Castro

DFS MLB – Indians at White Sox

Indians Probable Starter – Trevor Bauer, RHP 

2.62 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 30.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .213 average, .267 wOBA, 35.6 fly ball rate and 38.2 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .215 average, .275 wOBA, 34.8 fly ball rate and 39.1 hard contact rate

This side of the game is pretty easy for me because Trevor Bauer is 100 percent locked in for me other than GPP entries to differentiate my lineup. The White Sox have a 24.4 strikeout rate for the season and it’s been even worse lately at 28.8 the past two weeks. If you played on Monday night, you saw Carlos Carrasco mow down Chicago with double digit strikeouts. Bauer also represents a significant discount on the Astros ace later on. I think we see a repeat of Sunday where Corey Kluber go about 20 percent owned and James Paxton at around 55 percent in cash with Gerrit Cole and Bauer. I’ll eat the Bauer chalk here and figure out the offense.

White Sox Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – None

White Sox Probable Starter – Dylan Covey, RHP 

2.22 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 23.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .222 average, .283 wOBA, 28.9 fly ball rate and 36.8 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .236 average, .238 wOBA, 18.6 fly ball rate and 34.9 hard contact rate

The past two nights, everyone has been all over the Indians and they haven’t exactly rewarded their owners. They can smash any pitcher in the league but I don’t think Cleveland will do anything spectacular tonight. I’m usually the first guy in line to play an elite offense against a no-name pitcher. It’s just a little hard to pay that premium price against these metrics. That’s one of the facets of DFS that I try not to stray from. The numbers will tell me where to go and be right more often than not. Players like Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez and Michael Brantley are all well over $4,000 on FanDuel and I just wind up liking other high priced players a good deal more. The fly ball rate is so low there appears to be not as much upside as usual.

Indians Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, Jose Ramirez

Home Run Pick – Edwin Encarnacion

DFS MLB – Reds at Royals

Reds Probable Starter – Tyler Mahle, RHP 

4.33 ERA, 1.43 WHIP and 23.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .284 average, .404 wOBA, 40.2 fly ball rate and 45.9 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .252 average, .288 wOBA, 31.7 fly ball rate and 35.6 hard contact rate

This was a game that I really loved yesterday but couldn’t really fit in any pieces with who I like more. That mostly worked out as the Reds didn’t score until the ninth inning to sort of salvage their night for fantasy. It’s virtually the same thing as yesterday for the Royals. The best lefty they have is Mike Moustakas and he’s priced up in this spot. Alex Gordon is on the best side of the splits and has been better than basically everyone thought. Still, it’s Alex Gordon and that’s not the easiest to click “Submit” with him in the lineup. If I had to bet, I’d say that Moustakas goes virtually un-owned tonight. As great of a spot as he’s in, he’s a tough sell at his salary. You can chase Jorge Soler‘s power if you wan but that’s not a place I’m headed this evening.

Royals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Mike Moustakas

Secondary Options – Alex Gordon

Royals Probable Starter – Jason Hammel, RHP 

5.24 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 15.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .255 average, .316 wOBA, 50.4 fly ball rate and 48.3 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .326 average, .355 wOBA, 30.1 fly ball rate and 42.9 hard contact rate

One of the best plays of the entire slate is Eugenio Suarez. I’d be lying if I said I always got him right. Whenever he’s in a monster spot, he’s had a tendency to let me down. Hammel is such a bad pitcher that even if Suarez doesn’t homer, he should be able to put up a good score. Suarez is under $4,000 on FanDuel which we can’t say about his teammates Scooter Gennett and Joey Votto. Hammel is giving up far too many fly balls and hard contact to have an average be that low. I don’t think Cincy ghosts us again tonight and they’re one of the better stacking options tonight. I’m not going to be the guy that talks you off hitters against Jason Hammel.

Reds Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett, Eugenio Suarez, Jesse Winker

Secondary Options – Curt Casali/Tucker Barnhart(whoever starts), Adam Duvall, Scott Schebler

Home Run Pick – Joey Votto

DFS MLB – Padres at Cardinals

Padres Probable Starter – Eric Lauer, LHP 

6.64 ERA, 2.06 WHIP and 19.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .361 average, .429 wOBA, 45.2 fly ball rate and 37.5 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .326 average, .409 wOBA, 35.1 fly ball rate and 42.6 hard contact rate

One of the reasons that I said the Reds were “one” of the best stacking options tonight is because the Cardinals might actually be a little bit better. If you’re a Cardinal in the lineup tonight, I’m at least going to have you in my player pool. Lauer really shouldn’t be in the majors at this stage of his career and the Cards might destroy him. Four hitters have a wOBA over .400 against lefties this year and I’m locking in Jedd Gyorko if he’s in the lineup. The best options are definitely very expensive and as much as I really want to play Jose Martinez, I’m not sure I can stomach $4,400. Also, Tommy Pham has ben in terrible form lately and his price is steep. I might take a couple of cheap options here and possibly sprinkle in the elite players here and there.

Cardinals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Jose Martinez, Jedd Gyorko, Marcell Ozuna, Tommy Pham

Secondary Options – Matt Carpenter, Harrison Bader, Dexter Fowler, Yairo Munoz, Yadier Molina(I like Cardinals tonight)

Cardinals Probable Starter – Luke Weaver, RHP 

4.35 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 20.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .287 average, .340 wOBA, 34.0 fly ball rate and 32.4 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .206 average, .266 wOBA, 38.1 fly ball rate and 32.0 hard contact rate

I like Cardinals so much tonight that even their pitcher is in play for me. Weaver probably won’t make my lineups due to his inconsistencies but the Padres flat out aren’t a good offense. They have been. hitting a little bit better than their season long track record these past two weeks and there’s some mild interest in a couple of bats. Eric Hosmer is in play but more expensive than I like for a player of his ilk. Where I might head is the Padres leadoff man, Travis Jankowski. He’s cheap like he always is and most players are going to be so busy jamming in Cardinals that they will fly right past him. Weaver really struggles with lefty bats and Jankowski has stolen base ability. He makes for a great cheap play in the outfield tonight.

Padres Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Travis Jankowski

Secondary Options – Eric Hosmer

Home Run Pick – Marcell Ozuna

DFS MLB – Astros at A’s

Astros Probable Starter – Gerrit Cole, RHP 

2.16 ERA, 0.84 WHIP and 37.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .178 average, .247 wOBA, 48.1 fly ball rate and 31.3 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .160 average, .228 wOBA, 45.8 fly ball rate and 35.7 hard contact rate

Maybe it’s the Pirates fan in me, but I’m usually rushing to plug in Gerrit Cole. I love that the Astros have turned him into a pitching machine, fulfilling the promise he just barely missed in Pittsburgh. This is a rare instance that I’m not all that interested. $1,600 is a lot of salary when constructing a lineup and that’s the difference between Trevor Bauer and Cole. Hopefully they don’t get mad at me for typing their names close together, as Bob Nightengale from USA Today wrote earlier this season. Cole should be able to dominate but if you want to get nuts, chase the fly ball rate and hope the powerful A’s put one in the seats. If Matt Olson and Khris Davis get a hold of one, that could be a massive difference in a tournament. I’d side with Olson but it’s nothing more than a dart throw.

A’s Hitters to Target 

Elite Options –

Secondary Options – Matt Olson, Khris Davis

A’s Probable Starter – Paul Blackburn, RHP 

1.50 ERA, 0.50 WHIP and 15.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .167 average, .208 wOBA, 33.3 fly ball rate and 0.0 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .143 average, .209 wOBA, 18.2 fly ball rate and 18.2 hard contact rate

We have another pitching to contact player on the mound for the A’s and that means we want to roster an Astro or two. It’s pretty funny how Carlos Correa jumped right back up to $3,900 on FanDuel after he dropped to $2,700 for who knows what reason. I’m sorry, but that was a huge whiff on the part of FanDuel. They can’t even use the “he was hurt” excuse because other players that were coming back form long-term injuries were more expensive last night, but I digress.

Evan Gattis is a prime way to fit Bauer in and have some money left to spend elsewhere. El Oso Blanco as he is known has been coming to life recently and still finds himself under $3,000 on FanDuel. Past that, it’s mostly the normal targets from Houston. I’d rank them as Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman and George Springer. The Astros are heating up and when that happens, offensive players tend to feed off each other.

Astros Hitters to Target

Elite Options – Evan Gattis, Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve

Secondary Options – Alex Bregman, George Springer, Josh Reddick

Home Run Pick – Matt Olson

DFS MLB – Rangers at Dodgers

Rangers Probable Starter – Cole Hamels, LHP 

3.86 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 23.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .260 average, .312 wOBA, 28.9 fly ball rate and 33.3 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .222 average, .334 wOBA, 39.3 fly ball rate and 47.3 hard contact rate

Hamels continues his audition to be a New York Yankee by the end of next month but he’s headed into a difficult spot tonight. The Dodgers are scorching hot and I’m probably going to ask Brian Tulloch(@2lockSports on the old Twitter machine) if he’s on the Dodgers again tonight. L.A. leads the majors in wOBA the past 14 days and that didn’t even include last night’s 13 run explosion. If they have any swings left in those bats, you have to like some Dodgers hitters again. The chalk option is likely to be Kike Hernandez and then you can sprinkle in Max Muncy, Justin Turner, Chris Taylor and Matt Kemp however you want. The way things are going for the Dodgers right now, I really can’t advise pitching Cole Hamels.

Dodgers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Kike Hernandez, Justin Turner, Matt Kemp, Max Muncy

Secondary Options – Chris Taylor, Yasiel Puig

Dodgers Probable Starter – Kenta Maeda, RHP 

3.61 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 30.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .284 average, .359 wOBA, 34.8 fly ball rate and 37.1 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .196 average, .255 wOBA, 35.4 fly ball rate and 33.3 hard contact rate

Despite the strikeout rate of both Maeda and the Texas lineup, I’m not playing Maeda tonight for any reason coming off a hip injury. Even if the Texas offense doesn’t chase him early, he could re-aggravate the injured hip and be down early. He could get roughed up by the lefty bats in this spot and if you’re swinging for pure upside, Joey Gallo has to be your man here. His price is down since it’s been a little bit since he’s hit a home run but it’s just a matter of time. I’d likely side with Nomar Mazara for a cash play but I really think this is too volatile a spot to chase very hard. If Maeda pitches well, the Rangers likely strikeout a ton. If he leaves early, we have to deal with a bullpen that can mix and match. There’s too many outcomes for cash games on this side of the game.

Rangers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Joey Gallo(GPP)

Secondary Options – Nomar Mazara, Shin-soo Choo

Home Run Pick – Justin Turner

DFS MLB – Sample FanDuel Lineup

P – Trevor Bauer  

More from FanSided

• Cardinals Rumors: Surprise extension, Dylan Carlson-Yankees link, Rays trade idea
• USWNT vs. Vietnam: Key takeaways before they take on the Dutch
• NFL rumors: 49ers trending toward contract drama with defensive star
• Steelers avoid any camp drama with latest roster move
• MLB Rumors: Potential Braves reunion, Lance Lynn no-trade clause and Orioles deadline intentions

C/1B – Evan Gattis

2B – Jedd Gyorko

3B – Justin Turner 

SS – Ehire Adrianza

OF – Kike Hernandez, Jess Winker, Marcell Ozuna

Utility – Eugenio Suarez

I can already see it’s going to be hard to build an offense that I’m not worried about leaving important pieces out of. This one doesn’t have a single Yankee in it, though we can move from Winker to Brett Gardner without any issue. Bauer is my pitcher of choice, even if he’s chalk. He has 60 point upside and if he hit that at 65 percent ownership, you’re going to be way behind the eight ball. Gattis gets us in on the Astros offense at least a little bit. Gyorko is incredibly cheap for the matchup and I’m just hoping he makes the lineup. Adrianza might be overplaying the hot hand but I’m still a little bitter I missed out on his grand slam last night. The outfield is a nice mix of value and one big gun with Ozuna in a glorious smash spot. I want to go back to the well with Suarez even with the previous poor results.

The Core – Kike Hernandez, Trevor Bauer(it’s not many today because there’s a lot of good offensive spots to consider closer to lock)

Stacks to Consider – Yankees(vs Washington), Dodgers(vs Texas), Reds(at Kansas City), Cardinals(vs San Diego) and Astros(at Oakland)

Next: DFS Golf - US Open Preview and Rankings

As always, may fortune be on your side and make sure to follow me on Twitter @bucn4life as MLB allows late swap. If there’s a late scratch and/or lineup cards aren’t put in for the late games, this article will always be updated on Twitter ASAP.