MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – Saturday June 23
Welcome to the Saturday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind MLB DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s MLB DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference, to help you build your best line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
Friday’s MLB DFS was a nice bounce back spot for Picks and Pivots after an ugly Thursday as we went into the night with a few core plays in mind. First, the goal at pitcher was to chase K upside in the mid-range with Jon Gray who delivered in a big way with 12 K’s and 1 ER in 7 dominant inning against the Marlins in Coors Field. Much like everyone else the goal was to build around the Coors bats and Nolan Arenado hit one of the chalkiest (and most predictable) HR’s of the 2018 season. Where I looked to differentiate a bit was to find the salary for the Red Sox duo of Mookie Betts and JD Martinez who I felt may get over-looked with so much focus on the Coors bats and boy oh boy did my man JD deliver as he dropped 44 FantasyDraft points, tied for the highest raw point output on the night with 2 doubles, 1 HR, 5 RBI and a stolen base which when combined with Gray and the Rockies hitters made this a great start to mt MLB DFS weekend.
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Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your MLB DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
MLB DFS – Early Slate Pitching:
Welcome to a split slate Saturday of MLB DFS and depending on which site you play on the slate size and start times will differ so make sure you are checking the player pool on each site as for example – the early slate on DraftKings and FanDuel starts at 2PM EST and includes 10 games where on FantasyDraft the early slate ignores the first three games which start earlier and gives us a 7 game slate starting at 4:15PM EST.
One of the big advantages to how FantasyDraft has approached this slate is that they remove the Coors Field game from the slate and what you are left with is seven games all with similar Vegas totals which makes this a much more interesting DFS slate to dig into – it is not a simple “Jam Coors Bats In” kind of slate, it requires a bit more sleuthing which I personally love.
From a pitching perspective this seven game slate is interesting in that we do not have any must have arms to pay up for but conversely there are no standout offenses (at least from a Vegas perspective) so I don’t see any arms really becoming overly chalky as a result. Although we have some names at the top with Aaron Nola, Zack Greinke and Dylan Bundy – I have zero interest in attacking the left-handed heavy Nationals, Pirates (low K team) or the Braves in Sun Trust. Instead I am going to look to pay down at both SP positions with arms that have K upside against weak line-ups in good pitching environments and that leads me to Andrew Suarez ($14.9K) and Sonny Gray ($13.7K).
Suarez gets a home start against the Padres and is the largest favorite on this slate at -153 while the Padres have the lowest projected run total on the board. Suarez has pitched quite well at home this year with a low 3 ERA and a 25% K rate and faced this Padres team once already in SF back in May when he went 7 innings, striking out 5 and giving up only 2 ER for 18.75 fantasy points. The Padres strike out at a 25.7% clip against LHP this season which is the third highest mark in the majors so not only does Suarez get an elite pitching environment with a solid run prevention match-up but there is also some solid K upside here and for under $15K that is more than enough for me to be willing to roll him out on this seven game slate.
Gray is the one arm I could see becoming popular as an SP2 as he has the name value of a top arm and is facing the Rays in Tampa Bay, one of the best pitcher’s parks in baseball. The book on Gray this year has actually been quite simple – avoid him at home and pitch him on the road as he has a 2.93 ERA on the road with a 24.6% K rate and a 7.22 ERA at home and only a 15% K rate. In his last three road starts against the Nationals, Blue Jays and Orioles, Gray has pitched 19 total innings, striking out 21 batters as opposed to only 3 walks and has given up just 3 ER while topping 20 fantasy points each time out.
Gray is much like Suarez in that he is the second highest favorite and his opponent has the second lowest run projection (both behind Mr. Suarez) so you are taking two arms that Vegas think have a good chance to get the win (worth 4 points), while getting solid run prevention and have built in K upside. Let others pay up for over-priced arms in bad spots and simply take the savings for Gray and Suarez and load up on all the bats your little heart desires.
MLB DFS – Early Slate Hitting:
As electric as Dylan Bundy can be at times, we are still talking about a pitcher with a .200+ ISO to left-handed batters with a near 50% fly-ball rate and 33% HC rate and now has to step into Atlanta where it will be in the high 80’s with the wind blowing out against a stacked left-handed line-up full of power. Freddie Freeman ($10.8K) and Ozzie Albies ($9K) are the top bats to start with here as each is sporting a .220+ ISO against RHP this season and they both absolutely demolish fastballs in the 91-92 MPH range which Bundy throws over 51% of the time as each Braves hitter has a .400+ ISO against that pitch.
One of the best stacks on this slate, as they have seemingly been in each of the last two days, is the Chicago Cubs against RHP Anthony DeSclafani. After back to back days where the Cubs were projected to go off against Matt Harvey and Luis Castillo and managed a mere 5 runs in two games, I wonder how many will simply opt to look elsewhere and let recent bias cloud their judgement. The Reds RHP has been absolutely awful against left-handed batters this season with a massive .357 ISO allowed and a 39.1% HC rate through three starts and before you scream small sample size, take a look at his career numbers and his 1.4 HR/9 rate to LHB and 34% HC rate and this is a spot I intend to load up on Cubbies bats. The lefties are where we need to start here with Anthony Rizzo, Jason Heyward and Kyle Schwarber and I would simply skip over the RHB in your stacks as DeSclafani has actually been quite solid against righties with a .100 ISO with only a .62 HR/9 rate in his career.
The Cardinals are an interesting reverse splits stack today against RHP Chase Anderson who is giving up a .209 ISO with a 36.3% HC rate this year against right-handed batters. Tommy Pham and Marcell Ozuna each have a .200 ISO against RHP this season and both have hit Anderson well in their careers going a combined 11 for 27 with 2 doubles and 3 HR’s.
Overall my advice on this slate is to pick and choose from a few 2-3 man stacks rather than simply plant your flag with one team and with the salary savings we have at pitcher we have the flexibility to pick and choose the best bats from in each hitting environment.
MLB DFS Sample Line-Up and Slate Overview:
The line-up below is meant to be illustrative only to further back-up the logic laid out in previous slides and is not meant to be an optimal line-up or a roster you simply plug and play on your own!
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SP: Andrew Suarez ($14.9K)
SP: Sonny Gray ($13.7K)
IF: Freddie Freeman ($10.8K)
IF: Ozzie Alvbies ($9K)
IF: Anthony Rizzo ($9.2K)
OF: Jason Heyward ($8.1K)
OF: Kyle Schwarber ($8K)
OF: Marcell Ozuna ($8.3K)
UTIL: Tommy Pham ($8.9K)
UTIL: Bryce Harper ($9.1K)
Slate Overview: With no Coors Field on the FantasyDraft Main Slate we are going to see the slate in a totally different way than those on FanDuel and DraftKings and as such will be targeting hitters that those on the other sites will likely overlook. On this seven game slate I think we have a handful of above average spots to target but none I feel the need to go all-in on so building a few 2-3 man stacks with the best pure hitters in each game is my preferred route. As always, keep an eye on line-ups as we tend to get funky line-ups as players get rested on these weekend day games so make sure you check back before lock and adjust as needed.
MLB DFS – Main Slate Overview
For a four game slate, this slate is LOADED with top arms as we get Jacob deGrom versus Clayton Kershaw and Lance McCullers Jr. at home versus the Royals as a massive -300 favorite. With so many elite arms on the hill on a short slate it will make finding bats to target that much more difficult to sort through but here we go!
The one BIG item to watch here is the weather in NY as we could get big time rain that could threaten the Mets and Dodgers. If this game is PPD we now have a three game slate and it is likely one I would sit out entirely but let’s approach it as if it plays.
I have a very simple rule in MLB DFS – when Jacob deGrom ($25.6K) is pitching at home, I play him. It is that simple. deGrom has a monster 37.4% K rate this season at home versus a 27% mark on the road after sporting a 31% mark at home last year versus a 26% mark on the road. The Mets right-hander is putting up video game like numbers this season especially since his return from the D.L in mid-May with a 32.2% K rate, only a 26% HC rate and a monster 16.5% swinging strike rate – he is a must play for me on this short slate.
Jacob Barria ($14.6K) is my preferred cheap SP2 option to pair with deGrom as he get a solid -135 home favorite who relies nearly 35% of the time on a slider and will take on a team in the Blue Jays that notoriously struggles against this pitch type. The whiff rate on the slider for the Blue Jays big bats are all massive as each of Curtis Granderson, Justin Smoak and Teoscar Hernadez havd a 30-40% whiff rate against the pitch type.
If you are looking for a pivot, Eduardo Rodriguez ($16.3K) makes for a high upside option taking on a Mariners team he just dominated with 9 K’s and only 2 ER in 6 IP and game log watchers may end up making him a popular play as a result. E-Rod is a solid -167 home favorite and if you can find the extra salary he makes for a decent upgrade over Barria as an SP2 with upside.
From a hitting perspective, the one team that stands out to me as a stack is the Angels against Marcus Stroman who makes his first start off the DL. The beauty of the Angels is you can go high/low with your stack with the ability to get Mike Trout and Justin Upton as a result of using some of the value bats like Luis Valbuena, Kole Calhoun and Jose Fernandez (if he plays). The other spot to find some upside at a cheap price point is in Houston as the Astros get to tee off against RHP Ian Kennedy who is giving up a .226 ISO and 42% HC rate to LHB this season and we can easily afford guys like Brian McCann and Josh Reddick at $6.6K.
My strategy on this slate is simple – pay up for pitching and plant your flag with one stack. Locking in deGrom and E-Rd and stacking the bats mentioned above still leaves you with $7K for your last batter so you have a flexible start to your roster build as we head towards lock. Enjoy your Saturday all!
Best of luck in your MLB DFS contests across FantasyDraft, FanDuel and DraftKings and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis.