Alabama season preview: Best and worst-case scenario
After another championship season, Alabama enters 2018 with the same level of expectations.
Another year, another championship. Even as the No. 4 seed in the 2018 College Football Playoff, Nick Saban managed to coach Alabama to the National Championship, the school’s fifth under his watch, with the defeat of the Georgia Bulldogs on an overtime touchdown.
For a time, the Crimson Tide did not seem guaranteed for the College Football Playoff. They failed to make the SEC Championship Game, making way for Auburn vs. Georgia. Though, the CFP Committee chose to place Saban’s squad in the top four, anyway and made them eligible for the National Championship.
Auburn gave Alabama its only loss of the 2017 season with a defensive shutdown, 26-14, and just their second defeat since the start of the 2016 season. This knocked them down to No. 4, where they remained into the CFP.
For the other kind of loss, Alabama had another star-studded group of players leave for the NFL. They set a school and SEC record with 12 players selected, including Minkah Fitzpatrick, Rashan Evans and Calvin Ridley.
Ridley, despite being selected behind Fitzpatrick and Evans, stands as the biggest name to leave Alabama for the NFL. He acted as the main target for quarterback Jalen Hurts and Tua Tagovailoa in the National Championship game, and his nearly 1,000 yards will be missed.
How Alabama handles its wide receivers will be interesting this season, as no one else topped 300 yards. Jerry Jeudy, entering his sophomore season, should be one of the players to pick up the slack. He was a five-star recruit in 2017, according to 247Sports, so expectations will be high for him to become the top target for Hurts or Tagovailoa.
The quarterback position itself is an obvious question mark for Alabama, as Hurts and Tagovailoa battle for the starting job. Hurts held this position for his freshman and sophomore campaigns until the team’s offense struggled in the first half of the National Championship Game, and Saban made the change to Tagovailoa. One strong second half later, and the title was back in Tuscaloosa.
The defense lost Fitzpatrick and others to the NFL, but there’s no shortage of talented players to step in. Deionte Thompson will take a secondary spot from Fitzpatrick and Ronnie Harrison while Patrick Surtain and Saivion Smith potentially join him — two top recruits from the 2018 class.
Dylan Moses is another player to watch for, as well, entering his sophomore year at linebacker. If he can make a jump from intriguing talent to All-American, this could be the face of Alabama’s defense that becomes a force to be reckoned with.
All of these pieces will align for the Crimson Tide’s 2018 season, which features 12 games. It starts with Louisville and closes with the Iron Bowl:
Alabama Schedule
- Saturday, Sep. 1 vs. Louisville
- Saturday, Sep. 8 vs. Arkansas State
- Saturday, Sep. 15 at Mississippi
- Saturday, Sep. 22 vs. Texas A&M
- Saturday, Sep. 29 vs. LA-Lafayette
- Saturday, Oct. 6 at Arkansas
- Saturday, Oct. 13 vs. Missouri
- Saturday, Oct. 20 at Tennessee
- Saturday, Nov. 3 at LSU
- Saturday, Nov. 10 vs. Mississippi State
- Saturday, Nov. 17 vs. Citadel
- Saturday, Nov. 24 vs. Auburn
Best-case scenario: Alabama finishes the season perfect and goes to the National Championship Game, again. It would surprise no one if that transpired, and even winning it all in January 2019. Whether it’s Hurts of Tagovailoa as the starting quarterback, this team is still capable of another title, under Saban, to continue this dynasty.
This is a young but talented team, even after losing veteran defenders. If some of the aforementioned players rise to the occasion and create another top-ranked defense, this team could hold the No. 1 spot in the rankings for most, if not all, of the season and win another national title.
Worst-case scenario: Auburn, Mississippi State, LSU and Texas A&M games could all result in losses. Only the LSU game is on the road, however, and Auburn might be their toughest opponent of the season. Alabama will probably win at least three of those games, and given how the committee treated them for the 2018 College Football Playoff, one loss will not make or break title hopes.
Problems may come from improper development from the quarterback position, no matter who holds the starting job; Hurts must take a step forward as a pocket passer and Tagovailoa needs to show that the National Championship Game was not a fluke. If the starter struggles and the young defense can’t plug the holes of the departed starters, then it may be trouble in paradise.
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Either way, Alabama will be a favorite to win the SEC and the 2019 National Championship. There’s another strong but young group for Saban to coach and expectations will be through the roof.