Wisconsin season preview: Best and worst-case scenario

Despite finishing 13-1, Wisconsin’s soft schedule kept them from competing for a national title last year. How does this season’s schedule compare and what are the Badgers’ chances of finishing the regular season undefeated again?

Wisconsin put together a 12-0 season before losing to Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship. After bouncing back to beat Miami 34-24 in the Orange Bowl, they finished the season 13-1.

It was a massively successful season in many ways but at the same time, was both disappointing and frustrating as they fell six points shy of winning the conference title then watched two SEC teams with their same record and no one from the Big Ten make the four-team playoff.

Fair or unfair, the Badgers now head into the 2018 season feeling slighted, like they have something to prove, something to finish after 2017 never gave them a chance.

They return almost everyone from an offense that scored just under 34 points a game last year. Like all the other historically great Wisconsin teams, offensive success started on the ground last season.

This season shouldn’t be an exception either. Sophomore running back Jonathan Taylor returns as a Heisman front-runner following a freshman season in which he came up 23 yards shy of rushing for 2,000 yards.

He’ll have an experienced offensive line to clear the way and a third-year starter at quarterback in Alex Hornibrook to hand him the ball. Hornibrook should also be able to take some pressure off the running game, just as he did last season, completing 62.3-percent of his passes for 2,644 yards.

Defensively, they’ll be replacing several key players from a group that gave up less than 14 points a game in 2017. Most notably, three of the top four pass rushers are gone as well as the team’s two best defensive backs, Nick Nelson and Natrell Jamerson, who were both mid-round picks in the NFL Draft.

Linebackers T.J. Edwards and Ryan Connelly return as the team’s leaders and top playmakers in the middle. Safety D’Cota Dixon is as good as any player in the conference at his position and will be asked to do a lot for Wisconsin in the secondary. They also have several players who have not been starters but played significant and meaningful snaps who will fill in and bring more experience than it may look like on paper this season.

The Badgers also get plenty of help from a number of standout young players and have the benefit of starting the season with five games they’ll be heavy favorites in to get young players reps, move people around, and develop comfort and continuity on defense.

Overall though, Wisconsin’s 2018 schedule looks like a much tougher one than last season’s which means they’ll be challenged more but ultimately bodes well for their playoff chances if they can navigate it without more than a loss.

Wisconsin schedule

• Fri, Aug. 31 vs. Western Kentucky
• Sat, Sept. 8 vs. New Mexico
• Sat, Sept. 15 vs. BYU
• Sat, Sept. 22 at Iowa
• Sat, Oct. 6 vs. Nebraska
• Sat, Oct. 13 at Michigan
• Sat, Oct. 20 vs. Illinois
• Sat, Oct. 27 at Northwestern
• Sat, Nov. 3 vs. Rutgers
• Sat, Nov. 10 at Penn State
• Sat, Nov. 17 at Purdue
• Sat, Nov. 24 vs. Minnesota

Best-case scenario: 12-0

Wisconsin’s toughest regular-season game last year was against No. 21 Michigan at home in Madison. This year, they’ll play Michigan again and can expect to see a much-improved opponent from last year in a much more hostile environment on the road in Ann Arbor.

The Badgers will also travel to Happy Valley to play Penn State the third to last week of the season. Those two road games against teams from the Big Ten’s East Division are the two biggest games of the year for Wisconsin and nothing on the rest of the schedule comes close.

Wisconsin will play Penn State a week after Penn State-Michigan in Ann Arbor which gives them an advantage even if the game is on the road.

They will be capable of beating both Michigan and Penn State and should win every other game on their schedule. If they can, they’ll again be 12-0 and set up another date with whoever comes out of the loaded East for the Big Ten Championship.

Worst-case scenario: 9-3

As mentioned above the Badgers could lose to both Penn State and Michigan, especially since both are on the road. They should be heavily favored against every other opponent on their 2018 schedule but that doesn’t guarantee anything — just ask Ohio State.

Wisconsin will travel to Iowa this year. The Hawkeyes went 8-5 in 2017 but seemingly out of nowhere, they absolutely manhandled Ohio State and cost the Buckeyes a place in the four-team playoff. Iowa may not be great on paper coming into 2018, but Kirk Ferentz has been there for 19 years and put together winning records nine of the last ten seasons. Iowa is almost always going to be solid, well-prepared and the kind of team that ruins seasons when they get overlooked.

Nebraska is in a transition year under first-year head coach Scott Frost but they have talent on the roster. Northwestern, Purdue and Minnesota are all well-coached teams who have seen recent improvements and two of those will also be road games for Wisconsin.

I don’t know which one it might be and I’m not saying I expect it, but Wisconsin could stumble and lose to one of a handful of conference opponents in 2017, especially if they’re dealing with injuries late in the season or coming off emotionally draining games like Penn State or Michigan.

Most likely outcome: 11-1

Vegas has the over/under on Wisconsin wins at 10. I think they can do one better than that by winning every game on their schedule besides Michigan on October 13.

Penn State may be as good or better but the fact that they travel to Michigan then host Wisconsin in back to back weeks gives the Badgers an edge in my mind. Whether Penn State wins or loses the week before, they’ll have thrown everything emotionally into it and most-likely played an incredibly physical game too. It will be difficult to bounce back and match the intensity and focus they’ll need to win against Wisconsin. It will be one of the more impressive coaching jobs in James Franklin’s tenure if they can though.

Or maybe things go the other way around and Wisconsin beats Michigan then loses to Penn State. I think it’s the less likely of the two outcomes but either way, I think they win every game on their schedule besides one of those two, then play again for a shot at the Big Ten Title (and likely lose to Ohio State or Michigan State then watch a two-loss SEC team make the playoff again).