DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown – Wednesday, August 8

Welcome into the Wednesday edition of the DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown! WE have a nice sized nine game slate in front of us so let’s go to work.

Last night was pretty solid, with the only lineup that didn’t come through being the Indians stack. They’re starting to be a team that annoys me a little bit. I feel like I haven’t been on the right side of them in a while. Everything else had a pretty good day and the one player I was mad I didn’t have was Juan Soto. I talked him up and didn’t end up with him, which is kind of easy to do on a 14 game slate. Maybe we can put a couple more pieces together tonight and figure out the Cleveland offense.

DFS MLB – Braves at Nationals

Braves Probable Starter – Mike Foltynewicz, RHP

3.04 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 28.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .190 average, .297 wOBA, 26.1 K rate, 39.2 fly ball rate and 32.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .225 average, .271 wOBA, 30.3 K rate, 33.6 fly ball rate and 34.7 hard hit rate

This side of the game is a GPP only for me. Foltynewicz has pitched against this team four times. Twice has been under 21 points and twice have been over 40, so the results have been mixed. His best start of the year came against the Nationals, scoring 70 points. The Nationals have been better offensively so I don’t think Foltynewicz has got that type of upside tonight. The larger amount of home runs have come from the left side of the plate and he uses the four seam/sinker combo the most. Juan Soto and Bryce Harper rate the best via the pitch data and Soto has a .493 xwOBA. The kid is amazing and he homered again last night. I think the answer here is to mini stack Harper and Soto or to pitch Foltynewicz. It’s hard to see a different path for this side tonight.

Nationals Hitters to Target

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Juan Soto, Bryce Harper

Nationals Probable Starter – Tommy Milone, LHP

*12.0 IP* 3.00 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and 32.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .077 average, .068 wOBA, 53.9 K rate, 50.0 fly ball rate and 33.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .303 average, .335 wOBA, 24.2 K rate, 28.0 fly ball rate and 44.0 hard hit rate

I’m not buying virtually any of the metrics that we’re seeing through 12 innings for Milone. I’m going to a lot of my normal targets when the Braves play lefties and one of the places to start is Johan Camargo. That seems odd when you’re talking about the Braves but he smacks lefty pitching. He actually leads the team in ISO against lefties at .295 and he looks great against the pitch data with a .401 xwOBA. In addition, he’s also $800 cheaper than a player like Ozzie Albies. The team leader in wOBA is Tyler Flowers at a whopping .524 mark to go along with a .473 xwOBA against Milone’s pitch mix. Even through the rest of his career, Milone has been pretty solid abasing lefties so my Braves exposure will be slightly limited.

Braves Hitters to Target

Elite Options – Johan Camargo, Tyler Flowers, Ronald Acuna

Secondary Options – Ozzie Albies, Freddie Freeman

Home Run Pick – Tyler Flowers

DFS MLB – Red Sox at Blue Jays

Red Sox Probable Starter – Brian Johnson, LHP

3.74 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and 22.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .229 average, .294 wOBA, 24.7 K rate, 42.0 fly ball rate and 31.4 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .284 average, .336 wOBA, 21.5 K rate, 38.6 fly ball rate and 32.2 hard hit rate

There’s definitely some GPP appeal with Johnson tonight as he showed with 11 strikeouts last start. Granted, he gave up four runs but it was still a pretty solid start overall for fantasy purposes. The pitch data is fairly average as Johnson throws a fastball and curve to right handed hitters. The downside comes from the fact that four hitters have an ISO over .200 so if they make contact, it’s going to go a long way. I think we’re in a bit of a repeat spot, although I’m not as excited to stack the Blue Jays. The two hitters to target more than others are Devon Travis and Teoscar Hernandez who lead the team in ISO. Both those hitters are the same price they were yesterday, which is a bargain for both. Aledmys Diaz and Yangervis Solarte are the other two hitters over .200 in ISO but like I said, I’m not going with a full four man stack.

Blue Jays Hitters to Target

Elite Options – Devon Travis, Teoscar Hernandez

Secondary Options – Aledmys Diaz, Yangervis Solarte

Blue Jays Probable Starter – Mike Hauschild, RHP

Career 14.0 IP – 6.43 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and 19.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .200 average, .405 wOBA, 22.2 K rate, 36.4 fly ball rate and 54.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .357 average, .415 wOBA, 18.2 K rate, 32.4 fly ball rate and 44.1 hard hit rate

We could have one of the best stacking options on our hands tonight in the Red Sox. Hauschild actually threw six scoreless innings against Seattle and his numbers are still that bad. He’s thrown a sinker over 55 percent of the time to both sides of the plate and four hitters have an xwOBA over .470, three of which are over .500. All four hitters have an ISO over .200 and J.D. Martinez and Mookie Betts are over .280. Mitch Moreland and Andrew Benintendi are no slouches either and I definitely want to find enough value to stack up some Red Sox tonight in at least one lineup. If I could only play one of Betts or Martinez, I tend to side with Betts. That’s especially true when he’s cheaper, even if it’s just $100.

Red Sox Hitters to Target

Elite Options – Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez

Secondary Options – Mitch Moreland, Andrew Benintendi

Home Run Pick – Tesocar Hernandez and Mookie Betts

DFS MLB – Orioles at Rays

Orioles Probable Starter – Andrew Cashner, RHP

5.05 ERA, 1.56 WHIP and 17.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .279 average, .370 wOBA, 20.0 K rate, 38.0 fly ball rate and 34.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .289 average, .355 wOBA, 14.0. K rate, 30.8 fly ball rate and 30.4 hard hit rate

Well, things can’t get much worse for Cashner after his last start netted a -22 points on FanDuel. Things shouldn’t be that bad this time around, but there’s still hitters to target on this side. I’m looking mostly towards the lefties as Cashner has given up 11 homers to them and only six to righties. Just looking for power means you have to go towards Jake Bauers. He’s carrying a .461 xwOBA on the pitch mix for Cashner to go along with a .259 ISO. Bauers isn’t the leader in xwOBA as that crown goes to lefty Ji-Man Choi. He’s up at .476 though his ISO and wOBA can’t match what Bauers is bringing to the table. Mallex Smith has been hitting that ball a ton lately and his batting average is just about .300. Whenever he gets on base, he can steal a bag. He’s got 23 on the season and has been a terror on the base paths lately.

Rays Hitters to Target

Elite Options – Jake Bauers, Mallex Smith

Secondary Options – C.J. Cron, Ji-Man Choi

Rays Probable Starter – Bullpen Day

I despise bullpen days and if you’ve been around for a little bit, this is not news. It makes it difficult to figure out where to head for the offense, especially when the offense isn’t good on paper like the Orioles are. They have been inexplicably better since the Manny Machado trade which makes no sense, but here we are. Jonathan Villar and Mark Trumbo will be my favorite plays since Villar is now in a plum role in this offense. He also has the pop and stolen base upside that is so attractive for fantasy. We’ll see how they rank compared to other players as we go.

Orioles Hitters to Target

Elite Options – Jonathan Villar

Secondary Options – Mark Trumbo

Home Run Pick – Jake Bauers

DFS MLB – Twins at Indians

Twins Probable Starter – Jake Odorizzi, RHP

4.60 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and 23.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .260 average, .362 wOBA, 21.5 K rate, 50.0 fly ball rate and 36.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .254 average, .332 wOBA, 25.4 K rate, 47.4 fly ball rate and 35.6 hard hit rate

Giving up fly balls to Indians hitters doesn’t seem like the best idea and Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor have taken advantage of that. They both have two homers in 11 at-bats and that could happen again tonight. Both of them hit a fly ball over 42 percent of the time and they have an ISO over .280. Odorizzi is sitting at a 1.89 HR/9 so this is a very dangerous spot. Add in that this game is in Cleveland and these two hitters are among the best options on the slate, regardless of price. On the cheaper side, Leonys Martin and Yonder Alonso are attractive as well from the left side of the plate. Alonso is over a .200 ISO and Martin has been hitting well since he got to Cleveland, with a .447 wOBA. This game could get ugly.

Indians Hitters to Target

Elite Options – Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Yonder Alonso, Leonys Martin

Secondary Options – Edwin Encarnacion, Michael Brantley

Indians Probable Starter – Mike Clevinger, RHP

3.48 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 24.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .240 average, .313 wOBA, 21.1K rate, 39.4 fly ball rate and 36.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .238 average, .284 wOBA, 27.5 K rate, 37.6 fly ball rate and 35.2 hard hit rate

It hasn’t been the sharpest stretch for Clevinger lately and I think he’s too expensive to take a chance on tonight. I’m not terribly excited to use the Twins hitters either because he’s not been a gas can, having allowed four earned runs or fewer in four straight starts. This is a spot where I’d swing for the upside so a hitter like Eddie Rosario and his team leading .234 ISO would fit the bill. If you wanted to stack the Twins and hope they can get to Clevinger, add in Jorge Polanco and maybe Miguel Sano. He’s not a good hitter but he’s got to hit a home run sooner or later. Minnesota isn’t exactly the best offense on paper at this point so I wouldn’t be surprised to see Clevinger be good. He’s just not worth $9,600.

Twins Hitters to Target

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Eddie Rosario, Jorge Polanco, Miguel Sano

Home Run Pick – Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor

DFS MLB – Cardinals at Marlins

Cardinals Probable Starter – John Gant, RHP

4.12 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 20.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .227 average, .317 wOBA, 17.0 K rate, 40.0 fly ball rate and 58.9 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .198 average, .256 wOBA, 23.6 K rate, 30.0 fly ball rate and 30.9 hard hit rate

Gant got beat up in his last start by the Pirates but he has a chance to get back on track just a little bit here. Since he’s been so good against righties, we’re looking at the lefties starting with Justin Bour. He brings the boom and the hard hit rate Gant is giving up to lefties doesn’t bode well for him. Bour is going to see a four seam and change 85 percent of the time and Bour has a .390 xwOBA against those pitches. He also has a .238 ISO which leads the team, even over J.T. Realmuto. Derek Dietrich is also in the mix as a cash game play with a solid wOBA and ISO combo of .357 and .165. It’s kind of the same spot as usual for the Marlins hitters. There’s a couple spots to exploit but I can’t see the merit of a full stack. Gant is cheap enough to take a stab at in tournaments.

Marlins Hitters to Target

Elite Options – Justin Bour

Secondary Options – Derek Dietrich

Marlins Probable Starter – Trevor Richards, RHP

3.92 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and 22.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .178 average, .247 wOBA, 25.2 K rate, 42.7 fly ball rate and 33.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .313 average, .379 wOBA, 20.1 K rate, 33.1 fly ball rate and 48.4 hard hit rate

I used Richards in his last start because the Phillies are lefty heavy but this spot is kind of an opposite of that. The Cards generally have six righties in their lineup which should present a problem for Richards tonight. Jose Martinez might be one of my favorite plays so far that doesn’t cost an arm and a leg. He crushes fastballs and has an xwOBA of .502 against the four seam/changeup combo that Richards throws a lot. He’s got the reputation as a lefty specialist but is carrying a .186 ISO and .366 wOBA against righties. Paul DeJong and Yadier Molina both have an ISO over .160 and wOBA’s over .320. That’s not spectacular but the splits with Richards make it look a little better. Matt Carpenter is a scary fade with how hot he’s been lately but Richards has been legitimately good against lefties.

Cardinals Hitters to Target

Elite Options – Jose Martinez

Secondary Options – Yadier Molina, Paul DeJong

Home Run Pick – Jose Martinez

DFS MLB – Yankees at White Sox

Yankees Probable Starter – Luis Severino, RHP

3.08 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 27.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .235 average, .289 wOBA, 28.6 K rate, 30.6 fly ball rate and 34.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .224 average, .276 wOBA, 26.7 K rate, 36.6 fly ball rate and 30.9 hard hit rate

Maybe this comes back to bite me, but my initial lean is to be all in on Severino. He’s been terrible lately and that’s why he’s $9,400 and now he draws a team that strikes out 25.5 percent of the time, fifth most in the league. Via FanGraphs, the White Sox are also in the bottom eight against the slider, which Severino throws a ton. If he can’t get back on track in this spot, the Yankees are going to have to have some major concerns coming down the stretch. I’m not going to play White Sox hitters against him because I really believe it’s time for Severino to regain form.

White Sox Hitters to Target

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – None

White Sox Probable Starter – Lucas Giolito, RHP

5.97 ERA, 1.49 WHIP and 14.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .268 average, .376 wOBA, 10.7 K rate, 43.7 fly ball rate and 33.2 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .222 average, .323 wOBA, 18.1 K rate, 38.1 fly ball rate and 30.2 hard hit rate

It may not seem like it, but Giolito has been pitching better as of late. Sure, he’s had a couple blow up starts but that’s been balanced out by five quality starts in the last seven starts. This is a very similar spot as last night for the Yankees. The lefties generally look a little better by the splits but righties have hit 10 home runs off of Giolito and Miguel Andujar leads the xwOBA portion of the stats with a .420 mark. He homered last night and could go yard again with his .182 ISO and .348 wOBA. The lefties are also a great option since Giolito doesn’t strike them out. Greg Bird, Didi Gregorius and Aaron Hicks are the lefty hitters that I want to chase. All of these guys have the ability to hit the ball out of the yard if they’re making contact at a higher rate and they all have ISO’s over .180. This has all the makings of a blow up start.

Yankees Hitters to Target

Elite Options – Greg Bird, Didi Gregorius, Aaron Hicks

Secondary Options – Miguel Andujar, Gleyber Torres, Giancarlo Stanton

Home Run Pick – Didi Gregorius

DFS MLB – Padres at Brewers

Padres Probable Starter – Brett Kennedy, RHP

*Major League Debut*

Kennedy is a 24 year old who’s making his debut after the trades of Tyson Ross and Jordan Lyles. This isn’t the best spot to be making a major league debut seeing as how Milwaukee is a dangerous team. Looking at FanGraphs, we can see that Kennedy is a ground ball pitcher with limited strikeout upside. The ground ball rate is over 52 percent and his strikeout percentage is 22.1. That’s not terrible but it’s nothing that really scares me. The Brewers have six hitters with an ISO over .200 against righty pitching so Kennedy better be able to get them to ground out a lot or this start might not be pretty. The only expensive player is Christian Yelich at $4,400 and the rest of the hitters that have a big ISO are all $3,400 or under. You have to make sure who’s playing for the Brewers everyday since they are loaded offensively but a guy like Eric Thames and his .305 ISO is going to have a field day if he’s not striking out. Yelich and Thames are my number one options from the Brewers offense and we’ll see how things shake out for the lineup before deciding who else to go after.

Brewers Hitters to Target

Elite Options – Christian Yelich, Eric Thames

Secondary Options – Travis Shaw, Jonathan Schoop, Jesus Aguilar

Brewers Probable Starter – Jhoulys Chacin, RHP

3.89 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 19.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .262 average, .342 wOBA, 14.0 K rate, 33.3 fly ball rate and 38.9 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .179 average, .248 wOBA, 24.4 K rate, 36.0 fly ball rate and 36.1 hard hit rate

The Padres hung 11 runs on the Brewers last night but Chacin might be able to stop the bleeding a bit. The Padres are generally a righty heavy lineup and Chacin has been excellent against them this year. The only to lefties that I sometimes look at are Eric Hosmer and Travis Jankowksi but even they are flawed. First, Hosmer has no discernible upside right now. He’s been awful this year and his pitch data is putrid at a .255 xwOBA. Jankowski will always ave a chance to steal a base but I’m not convinced he can get on base to start with. His xwOBA is even worse than Hosmer and the ISO and wOBA are under .100 and .310, respectively. That’s not a number that looks too good and I don’t have any issues with using Chacin tonight. The Padres maybe scared some players off last night and Chacin might be under-owned.

Padres Hitters to Target

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Eric Hosmer, Travis Jankowski

Home Run Pick – Eric Thames

DFS MLB – Cubs at Royals

Cubs Probable Starter – Jose Quintana, LHP

4.12 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 20.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .232 average, .291 wOBA, 25.2 K rate, 23.4 fly ball rate and 29.2 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .244 average, .333 wOBA, 19.4 K rate, 36.9 fly ball rate and 39.3 hard hit rate

If Severino wasn’t so cheap relative towards his typical cost, I would likely end up with a lot of Quintana. As things stand, I’m going to find the extra $1,200 to get up to Severino almost every single time. Quintana himself gets a solid matchup and has four quality starts in his last five with the lone bump in the road against the Padres. The one hitter that really worries you is Whit Merrifield but he looks a little rough via the pitch data. Quintana throws a fastball and a curve 78 percent of the time and Merrifield only has a .316 xwOBA against those two pitches. Salvador Perez and Merrifield both have an ISO over .200 but Perez is even worse from a pitch data perspective. Quintana has been pretty inconsistent this year but this is a pretty good spot.

Royals Hitters to Target

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Whit Merrifield, Salvador Perez

Royals Probable Starter – Heath Fillmyer, RHP

3.86 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and 14.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .197 average, .258 wOBA, 15.1 K rate, 26.0 fly ball rate and 20.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .308 average, .376 wOBA, 12.5 K rate, 26.7 fly ball rate and 51.1 hard hit rate

Fillmyer has only pitched for about 30 innings in his career so we don’t want to get too carried away with the splits. Still, righties have been the way to go and that means Javier Baez is firmly in play. He has the team leading ISO of .294 to take advantage of Fillmyer’s 2.13 HR/9 so far and Baez is in a pretty good spot. What is interesting about this game is the Cubs typically have six lefties in their lineup against righty pitching. If those splits are real, Fillmyer might actually have a shot at having a pretty solid game. I doubt that I would have the guts to play him but I think Baez and maybe Willson Contreras would be the only Cubbies that I would want in a major way. Even on a nine game slate, this game is kind of mediocre to pick on.

Cubs Hitters to Target

Elite Options – Javier Baez

Secondary Options – Willson Contreras

Home Run Pick – Javier Baez

DFS MLB – Dodgers at A’s

Dodgers Probable Starter – Clayton Kershaw, LHP

2.55 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 25.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .289 average, .354 wOBA, 25.6 K rate, 31.1 fly ball rate and 44.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .210 average, .258 wOBA, 25.4 K rate, 26.3 fly ball rate and 30.4 hard hit rate

Much like Quintana, it would be difficult for me to get away from Severino and pay over $2,000 more for Kershaw tonight. He’s still a pretty good play considering the A’s aren’t good against lefties at home. Kershaw might not be the same pitcher he used to be but his $11,000 makes you feel pretty safe even if the ceiling isn’t quite the same. I won’t have any A’s bats tonight but if you wanted to go against the grain you can use a hitter like Mark Canha as a GPP play with an ISO over .300 against lefties this year.

A’s Hitters to Target

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Mark Canha

A’s Probable Starter – Mike Fiers, RHP

3.48 ERA, 1.24WHIP and 17.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .255 average, .335 wOBA, 16.9 K rate, 46.0 fly ball rate and 38.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .258 average, .308 wOBA, 17.8 K rate, 43.0 fly ball rate and 34.9 hard hit rate

I was all set to fire up Dodgers again because Brett Anderson was the original starter but I’m pretty sure Fiers will have me pulling back the reins a little bit. I’m certainly not using him with the Dodgers lineup in town but he has the really frustrating tendency to give up two or three runs through 5.2 or six innings. He throws a bunch of different pitches so that’s not the best metric to look at tonight. The rub here is Fiers also has a 1.85 HR/9 to lefty hitters and the Dodgers have four in their normal lineup that have an ISO over .225. Cody Bellinger is the low man at .229 while both Max Muncy and Joc Pederson are over .300. Yasmani Grandal is up at .272 and I would honestly either go with a two or four man stack if you want to go after Fiers. Muncy has been slumping so he’s down at $2,900. They make intriguing options but I wouldn’t say their the best in cash games.

Dodgers Hitters to Target

Elite Options – Two man stack(GPP)

Secondary Options – Four man stack

Home Run Pick – Max Muncy

DFS MLB – FanDuel Sample Lineup

P – Luis Severino

More from FanSided

C/1B – Jose Martinez

2B – Jonathan Villar

3B – Johan Camargo

SS – Didi Gregorius

OF – Mallex Smith, Eric Thames, Andrew Benintendi

Utility – Tyler Flowers

I still can’t look past the discount for Severino in this spot considering the strikeout potential he has against the White Sox. We have a nice mix of value, mid-range and elite options for pricing tonight and there’s a good mix of power and stolen base upside. In short, there’s a lot of ways we can get points in a hurry. Camargo and Flowers pick on a lefty should should be due some regression and then we just have a bunch of one-offs. This is a bit odd as we really don’t have many two man stacks but it’s a good starting point.

The Core – Luis Severino, Tyler Flowers, Eric Thames

Pitching Options

High End – Clayton Kershaw, Luis Severino

Mid-Range – Jose Quintana, Jhoulys Chacin

Punts – Brian Johnson

Stacks to Consider – Boston Red Sox, Cleveland Indians, Milwaukee Brewers, New York Yankees, Los Angeles Dodgers lefties

As always, may fortune be on your side and make sure to follow me on Twitter @bucn4life as MLB allows late swap. If there’s a late scratch and/or lineup cards aren’t put in for the late games, this article will always be updated on Twitter ASAP.

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