Find out how stacking isn’t just a preferred strategy in MLB DFS and how it can work for you in the NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball Stacks articles!
Happy Wednesday NBA DFSers! After a boring 3-game Daily Fantasy Basketball slate in which we suffered through the Suns typical shenanigans and the questionable status of Kawhi Leonard (what’s new?) who was ultimately ruled out, we turn our sights towards a hefty 11-game slate with a ton of marquee matchups.
As I mentioned in my previous stacking article earlier this week, I am unable to play NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball due to job restrictions in the NBA, but I love diving deep into the data behind the matchups, making these articles extremely fun to work on.
With that being said, as a reminder, my articles this season will NOT be your typical position-by-position top play installments. Instead, I am going to highlight the best team and game stacks on the given slate. While stacking in NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball is not as popular as NFL (QB-WR) or MLB (staple cash game strategy), it can prove to be a very useful strategy if approached correctly.
Without any more fluff, let’s get into the stacks!
Primary Game Stack: Oklahoma City Thunder @ New Orleans Pelicans
Thunder Team Ranks:
Pace: 6th (105.4 possessions per game)
Offensive Efficiency: 19th (105.7 points per 100 possessions)
Defensive Efficiency: 1st (99.5 points allowed per 100 possessions)
It’s not often that I prefer someone on the Thunder over Russell Westbrook ($11.5k FD / $10.9k DK), but tonight is an exception. Dollar-for-dollar, Paul George ($9.1k FD / $9.0k DK) checks the boxes as one of the top overall plays on the slate.
Over his last 4 games, George has been on a dominant stretch. he’s averaged 28.5 points, 8.3 rebounds, 4.5 assists and 2.5 steals in 33.7 minutes per game. Those are Westbrook-like numbers. The Pelicans also allow the 6th most fantasy points per game to opposing SFs (43.35 per game) and I would expect their best perimeter defender (Jrue Holiday) to focus on Westbrook, giving George extra space to work. He’s a cash game staple tonight but should come with lower ownership than he deserves.
While George is my favorite play on the Thunder, Westbrook still comes in as an elite play as well. He’s topped 65 FanDuel points in 3 of his last 6 outings and holds a 32.6% usage rate. You won’t get any argument from me if you play him, but I prefer George given his individual matchup and price.
Steven Adams ($6.7k FD / $6.4k DK) has seen his price remain affordable while quietly topping 33 FanDuel points in 5 consecutive outings. He’s also scored more than 20 points in 3 of his last 4 and should see a ton of minutes in an attempt to contain Anthony Davis tonight. While his ceiling against Davis may not be sky-high, the opportunity is there with his minutes and his consistency make him a very reliable cash game play.
Looking down from the big 3, Dennis Schroder ($5.8k FD / $5.3k DK) has some appeal given the game environment (tight spread, insane pace). He’s recorded at least 10 field goal attempts in 14 of his last 15 games with the other being a game where he attempted 9 shots. The volume is there for Schroder and for $5.3k on DraftKings, it’s hard to not like the play.
Primary Game Stack: Oklahoma City Thunder @ New Orleans Pelicans
Pelicans Team Ranks:
Pace: 3rd (105.8 possessions per game)
Offensive Efficiency: 4th (110.8 points per 100 possessions)
Defensive Efficiency: 24th (109.4 points allowed per 100 possessions)
This game, in a way, is the clash of the titans, as the Pelicans rank top 5 in offensive efficiency and the Thunder are the #1 team in defensive efficiency. That ranking, however, shouldn’t stop Anthony Davis ($12.4k FD / $11.2k DK).
He’s fresh off of a 41-point outburst and has now topped 60 FanDuel points in 6 of his last 9 games. His price is sky-high but the fact that his floor is still 4.5x(ish) is astounding. He checks in as a top-3 stud, but he wouldn’t be a top priority for me.
Jrue Holiday ($9.1k FD / $7.9k DK) had his first off game of the season last game, putting up only 7 points. Even so, he’s topped 34 minutes in 5 straight games and has averaged 20.5 pints and 8.8 assists per game on the season. He should also see ample opportunity for steals and blocks as he’s matched up with Russell Westbrook on the other end, likely heightening his ceiling.
One of the reasons that Holiday may have seen a recent dip (albeit small) in production could be due to the emergence of Julius Randle ($8.8k FD / $7.4k DK) with Nikola Mirotic out. With him out, Randle has posted a 28% usage rate (2nd on the team) and 1.32 fantasy points per minute. He’s topped 47 FanDuel points in 4 of his last 5 games and topped 33 minutes in all 4 of those outings. He’s one of my favorite plays on the slate as he should be able to dominate Jerami Grant in the post. He’s way too cheap on DraftKings especially.
Strictly looking at recent form and comparing to salary, it’s hard not to love the value that Tim Frazier ($5.2k FD / $4.1k DK) brings to the table. He’s topped 21 DraftKings points in 4 straight outings, putting him roughly at 5x at his current salary. He’s a priced a bit too high on FanDuel, but remains an elite value on DraftKings.
Secondary Game Stack: Toronto Raptors @ Golden State Warriors
Raptors Team Ranks:
Pace: 12th (103.0 possessions per game)
Offensive Efficiency: 3rd (111.3 points per 100 possessions)
Defensive Efficiency: 5th (103.2 points allowed per 100 possessions)
With Kawhi Leonard ($10.1k FD / $9.4k DK) sitting out last night, I think it’s safe to assume that he’ll find himself in the lineup in the marquee matchup against the Warriors. In his last 5 games against Golden State, he’s averaged 27.4 points, 8.2 rebounds, 3.8 assists and 2 steals in 34.9 minutes per game. Well rested and primed for one of his special defensive-performances against Kevin Durant, he comes in as a phenomenal play and should carry low ownership.
I tend to recommend Kyle Lowry ($7.6k FD / $7.2k DK) in the absence of Leonard, there is a chance that he could have a nice outing tonight. His recent form hasn’t been great (under 30 fantasy points in 3 straight), but he’s averaged 23.2 points, 8.8 assists, 5.2 rebounds and 2.6 steals per game over his last 5 against Golden State. He’s the ultimate GPP play tonight, but could pay off and then some at minimal ownership.
Down from the two heads of the Raptors, Pascal Siakim ($6.6k FD / $6.1k DK) has by far and away been the most impressive player on the team this season. He’s averaged 14.6 points and 6.5 rebounds per game while topping 32 DraftKings points in 5 of his last 8 games and averaging 1.01 fantasy points per minute. He might have his hands full with Draymond Green tonight, but this could also provide opportunity for more peripheral stats.
Serge Ibaka ($6.4k FD / $6.0k DK)Â has been extremely inconsistent lately and has averaged only 15 points and 4 rebounds per game against the Warriors in his last 5 matchups with them. In a game that I expect a lot of small-ball, we could see his minutes limited and Siakim at the 5, making him a large-field GPP option at best.
Secondary Game Stack: Toronto Raptors @ Golden State Warriors
Warriors Team Ranks:
Pace: T15th (102.7 possessions per game)
Offensive Efficiency: 1st (113.4 points per 100 possessions)
Defensive Efficiency: 13th (106.0 points allowed per 100 possessions)
Is there ever not a night to stack the Warriors? With Steph Curry ($9.4k FD / $9.8k DK) and Draymond Green ($6.7k FD / $6.6k DK) back in the fold, we should see the usage, rebounding and assist rates level out a bit for the rest of the team. With that being said, it’s hard to not love the big three here.
Curry has been lights out over the last three games, averaging 33.3 points, 7 assists, 6.7 rebounds and 1.3 steals per game. He’s also seen 33+ minutes in those three games, indicating that the reigns have been taken off following his injury. In what should be a competitive game throughout, this is a spot that I’d expect Curry to thrive.
With Curry priced at such a reasonable level and the Kawhi Leonard defense scaring people away, I have a hard time envisioning Kevin Durant ($10.2k FD / $9.6k DK) carrying any type of ownership tonight. With that being said, I don’t think he should go overlooked. In his last 5 meetings with Kawhi Leonard, Durant has averaged 34.4 points, 8.2 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 1.4 blocks and 1 steal per game in 40.7 minutes. Those are some awfully good numbers against arguably the best defender in the NBA. He’s a fantastic GPP option tonight.
Green is hard not to love tonight. He’s a player that gets up for the big games and contributes across the box score. He’s also priced at one of the lowest prices that we could see this season. In his first game back from his toe injury, he posted 7 points, 10 rebounds and 7 assists in 29 minutes. Should we see his minute allotment increase tonight, I see no way he doesn’t shatter value.
Klay Thompson ($6.8k FD / $6.5k DK) is never a player that I look to actively target as he is typically reliant on scoring, but he’s been crashing the boards more as of late and can always pop off for 37 points in a quarter. He’s strictly a GPP play.
Top GPP Stack: Minnesota Timberwolves (@ SAC)
Timberwolves Team Ranks:
Pace: T13th (102.9 possessions per game)
Offensive Efficiency: 15th (106.5 points per 100 possessions)
Defensive Efficiency: T15th (106.9 points allowed per 100 possessions)
With so many great spots above, I feel that the Timberwolves will go a bit overlooked, but they’ve quietly been playing great basketball since the departure of Jimmy Butler and have a cupcake matchup tonight against the Kings.
Karl-Anthony Towns ($9.7k FD / $10.0k DK) comes in to arguably the best spot of any Minnesota player tonight, as the Kings allow an average of 56.62 FanDuel points per game to opposing centers. Over his last 5 games against the Kings, KAT has averaged 30.0 points, 13.8 rebounds, 3.6 assists and 2.2 blocks per game. Without Butler this season, Towns has posted an elite 29.1% usage rate and averaged 1.44 fantasy points per minute. He’s an elite play in all formats but should carry low ownership in GPPs.
Coming down from Towns, Derrick Rose ($5.9k FD / $5.8k DK) has found himself in great recent form as of late, posting at least 38 DraftKings points in each of his last two outings while also seeing 34+ minutes in those outings. I would expect that to continue tonight against the non-existent defense of De’Aaron Fox, making him an elite GPP play.
Andrew Wiggins ($6.1k FD / $6.3k DK) has topped 20 raw points in 3 straight outings and while he remains one-dimensional, he’s a player you want to catch when he’s hot. The Kings are a bottom-10 team in the NBA in terms of fantasy points allowed to SGs (41.99 per game), giving him a good chance at making it 4 in a row with 20 points.
Top Value Stack: Cleveland Cavaliers (vs NYK)
Cavaliers Team Ranks:
Pace: 29th (98.9 possessions per game)
Offensive Efficiency: 22nd (104.3 points per 100 possessions)
Defensive Efficiency: 30th (112.4 points allowed per 100 possessions)
The Cavs just cannot catch a break. As soon as Tristan Thompson started playing to his potential, he goes down for 2-4 weeks. While this is just another unfortunate happening for the Cavs, it opens up a lot more value from a fantasy perspective.
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Larry Nance Jr. ($5.8k FD / $5.7k DK) should prove to be the biggest beneficiary and could even start to see 30+ minutes. Over his last two games, he’s topped 32 FanDuel points while failing to reach 30 minutes, showing his efficiency. With TT off of the court, Nance averages 1.12 fantasy points per minute and I expect that number to skyrocket. He’s an elite value in all formats.
Alec Burks ($5.3k FD / $4.8k DK)Â has seen his value increase exponentially since being traded to the Cavs, as last game marked only the second time he failed to top 20 fantasy points since the trade. Before last game, he posted outings of 46.8 and 31.8 DraftKings points in 36 minutes per game. He remains dirt cheap and the Knicks rank in the bottom half of the league against opposing SGs.
While Burks has soaked up a lot of usage in the back-court, the departure of George Hill has opened up the permanent starting PG role for Collin Sexton ($5.3k FD / $5.1k DK). He’s seen at least 32 minutes in 12 of his last 15 games while topping 20 raw points in 3 of his last 4. He’s been inconsistent in the peripheral categories but has flashed upside with 6 assists two games ago and a 10-rebound performance a few weeks ago. He’s a viable value play in cash games.
Thank you for reading my NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball Stacks for the December 12th main slate! Make sure to read the rest of the stellar content from the CPR team and be sure to hit me up on Twitter (@JMetz34) to talk slate!
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