Manny Pacquiao vs. Adrien Broner: Preview, prediction and fight odds

Manny Pacquiao and Adrien Broner meet in what is essentially a must-win situation for both boxers. The loser’s career will be in serious jeopardy.

Manny Pacquiao (60-7-2, 39 KOs) is a great champion and an all-time great, but at 40 years old his future in boxing is limited. Adrien Broner (33-3-1, 24 KOs) is only 28 years old, but his antics outside of the ring have impacted the progress of his career. On Saturday, Jan. 19, Pacquiao and Broner fight for Pacquiao’s WBA welterweight title on Showtime pay-per-view for an inflated price of $74.99. Despite Pacquiao’s advancing age, there’s no reason to believe that Broner stands a realistic chance of defeating Pacquiao.

Broner hasn’t won a fight in almost two years. People forget that. The last time his hand was raised in victory was in 2017 against Adrian Granados. He followed that up with a one-sided loss to Mikey Garcia and a controversial draw against Jessie Vargas.

Broner received a gift against Vargas in April of 2018. Vargas slowed during the second half of the fight, but Broner didn’t look impressive at any point in the contest. He has done nothing over the last two years to develop any faith in his abilities against Pacquiao.

Pacquiao looked like a younger man against Lucas Matthysse in July. He knocked him down three times winning the bout by seventh-round TKO. It’s hard to tell if Pacquiao was an elite boxer or if he was just fighting a shell of the former Matthysse.

He lost to Jeff Horn early in 2017 by unanimous decision. However, that result seemed unfair. Horn benefited from fighting in front of his countrymen in Australia, and the judges were swayed by the crowd’s reaction. It’s a fight that Pacquiao deserved to win.

Oddsmakers are tabbing Pacquiao as a slight betting favorite. The Sportsbook Review has him hovering around -315 odds. Broner is the underdog ranging from +210 to +288 odds depending on the betting service. It’s surprising that the betting lines aren’t more skewed in favor of Pacquiao considering Broner’s last several performances and his trouble outside of the ring.

He’s involved in two separate cases of sexual misconduct. Broner’s behavior on social media has also raised concerns about his mental stability. In June he posted a series of Instagram messages that threatened violence against others and himself. Broner’s self-destructive behavior outside of the ring doesn’t help his chances against Pacquiao, but people have short memories.

Pacquiao is an intelligent boxer, but he can be overly patient at times. Broner is a slow starter, but he’s skilled and can turn it on later in contests as he did against Vargas. Broner has lost three fights, but he has never been knocked out in a bout, and I don’t think a 40-year-old Pacquiao is going to be the first person to accomplish that task.

Pacquiao is a crafty southpaw, and his abilities aren’t faded to the point where Broner’s youth can overwhelm him. Broner has never won a fight against a boxer on Pacquiao’s level which is why it’s a little shocking that he’s not more of an underdog.

Broner isn’t on Pacquiao’s level, plain and simple. He’s skilled enough to avoid being knocked out, but Pacquiao should win a clear decision. The only element that could alter what should be a decisive Pacquiao victory is the judging. He was robbed against Horn, but hopefully that won’t be the case against Broner.