Good day and greetings from your NCAA basketball best bets to win host and value gambler. We’ve got a massive Saturday schedule ahead with many value plays available.
For those seeing this for the first time, I will be giving NCAA basketball best bets for the upcoming days games having written this article the night before. The lines I quote are the live lines at the time of writing, and if the line mentioned here is significantly worse for you then consider it a no bet.
Lines are very important and are the key to my value plays. On average, 1 out of every 14 games that move at least 1 1/2 points from the opening number will land (the final score will be within the line move) so we want to make sure to get the proper number.
Disregard any play that is significantly off the number listed, has an unexpected injury, or any other factor not known before the day of the game that would negatively impact our play. I am playing these games also and will tweet when I can find anything important.
Yesterday, Friday, we went 1-2 pushing the overall record to 37-24-1.
Analysis of every game consists of the number I make the game and the associated trends within the game, including and especially how the teams are currently playing.
Sometimes you will see a stat saying team X has covered 8/10, then upon examination you see that team lost the last 2 in a row. Stats can be a trap so I filter them out for you.
Having said that, let’s get to our NCAA basketball best bets. I will be going thru these games in time order; if the strength of the play deviates from the standard unit it will be pointed out as the game is discussed. All times Eastern. Here we go:
NCAA Basketball Best Bets To Win – Sooners Roll
Oklahoma -2 versus West Virginia, Noon
Oklahoma is coming off a dismal game against Baylor but should bounce back and cover at WV. They are 5-0 ATS on the road recently with the main factor being the difference in ratings. I make this game Oklahoma by 11 before home court consideration and with WV losing 5/6 ATS (1-2 at home) the separation should be big enough to hold.
South Florida -1 versus Memphis, Noon
My rating on this game is South Florida by 1 but that is with a standard 3 points given to the home team. In this case Memphis has under-performed badly on the road, losing 3 days ago at Tulsa 95-79 as a favorite.
South Florida conversely has covered their last 7/8 ATS overall, winning the last 2 ATS by a combined 26 points. In addition, South Florida has covered 6 of the last 7 in their heads-up series. Let’s try South Florida at this number.
Kent State +4 1/2 versus Ball State, Noon
Once again my ratings number, Ball State by 4, is close to the actual line. However these 2 teams are going in opposite directions ATS and the series has been dominated by Kent, taking 8/10 ATS.
Ball State has lost their last 6/7 to the number, losing 3 home games ATS by a whopping 56 points combined. Kent has been much closer to the number but they did win their last road game 66-52 as a 4 point underdog.
Louisville +2 versus North Carolina, 2 pm
This line opened Louisville 1 and NC has taken all the action – Let’s fade this number in a battle of 2 good teams. Take +2 or better on Louisville.
Coastal Carolina -4 versus UL Lafayette, 2 pm
Another day, another steam against CC. This line opened 6 and quickly dropped to 4. We will lay the favorite at this number, as CC has won and covered their last 4 to the line while ULL is 0-3-1 during that span.
Drake +2 versus Indiana State, 2 pm
Here is a straight forward game for me. Drake has covered the last 4/5 in the series, they covered 6 games in a row before losing last time out, and Indiana State has dropped its last 4/5 ATS. Take Drake at +1 or better.
Virginia -20 versus Miami Florida, 2 pm
Virginia had covered their last 10 in row before a non-cover 4 days ago, however I think they win this game going away. The line opened 21 and has dropped to 20. Miami Florida has dropped their last 4 ATS, Virginia has been good in covering large spreads, and my number is Virginia 33.
NCAA Basketball Best Bets To Win – Aim High
Air Force -2 versus Colorado State, 4 pm
My overall ratings number was spot on to the opening spread, Air Force by 2, but they overplay at home. The last 3 in their building has seen AF cover the number by a combined 60 points. Colorado State has been declining ATS in road games, the last being a 40 point loss as a 20 point dog.
Utah State – 12 versus UNLV, 4:30 pm
Utah State has a very poor overall ATS record this season, but we did win laying 26 with them last time out because their opponent was very bad on the road. I think we have the same situation today.
UNLV has lost 3/4 ATS on the road recently, and in those 3 losses they missed the number by a combined total of 62 points. The number I make is Utah State by 19, so we do have enough room to go back to the well and lay the favorite again.
Oregon State +3 versus Utah, 5 pm
This line opened Utah 1 1/2 and has quickly moved out to 3. Both teams have played fairly well to the number but in the last game for both teams Oregon State looks slightly stronger. My number says OSU will win the game so I will try this away underdog.
South Alabama -1 versus Troy, 6 pm
South Alabama is on a run here in the last 4 games, with the last being a 78-72 win as a 9 point dog. My number has SA a slight favorite and with recent play being strong I’m giving the nod to the home team.
Texas San Antonio +4 1/2 versus Marshall, 7 pm
UTSA is playing better their last 3 games, covering all three not counting an 8 point loss in overtime as a 6 point dog. Marshall is struggling to the line although not as bad as it looks at first glance, dropping games ATS by a close margin at home.
Still I think we have enough to try the dog although for the best value I would like to take 5. The line opened 3 1/2 and is climbing here overnight so maybe we will get there.
NCAA Basketball Best Bets To Win – Vols Roll
Tennessee – 11 versus Texas A&M, 8 pm
I make this game 22 and there is nothing in recent play to suggest A&M can hang with the Vols. A&M is not holding their home court well and Tennessee is covering large spread games. The Vols have also covered the last 3 in the series.
Northern Iowa +1 versus Missouri State, 8 pm
My overall number on this game is a PK, but looking closer N Iowa has been better in the home/away split and I believe has enough to win this game.
The opener was N Iowa favored but that quickly flipped and now Missouri State is 1. We are good with any plus on N Iowa and hopefully the line gets even better. N Iowa at PK is also okay.
Cincinnati -10 1/2 versus SMU, 8 pm
This line opened at 12 and has dropped to 10 1/2, but Cincinnati has been playing better their last 3 games ATS while SMU continues to struggle on the road. My number is 17 so at -11 or better, Cincy is a play.
Loyola Marymount +7 versus BYU, 9 pm
This line opened at 6 and has moved up to 7 putting LM in the play zone. My number has BYU winning by a small margin so at +7 or better this is worth a try.
Fresno State -9 versus New Mexico, 10 pm
This line opened 11 1/2 and has already dropped to 9 in some books, and it’s understandable because Fresno has been awful trying to cover a home game. The last time they were able to do so was December 22nd.
However New Mexico has had troubles of their own covering away from home. Fresno, not counting an overtime loss as a dog, has covered the last 6 games in the series. My number is Fresno by 15, so as long as we are laying 9 or less, the favorite is a value play.
NCAA Basketball Best Bets To Win – Waves engulf Pacific
Pepperdine +3 versus Pacific, 10 pm
I would think Pacific should be named the Waves, but alas it is Pepperdine with that honor – and hopefully a cover also. The line opened Pacific 1 and has charged out to 3 with me sitting here wondering why.
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My number on the game is Pepperdine by 6 before home field advantage consideration, with the Waves surging their last 3 games while Pacific is struggling. I don’t see any injury news to deter me from trying this underdog.
Added Games:
Wofford -12 1/2 versus The Citadel, 1 pm
Although Wofford has not fared well ATS as of late, they have been fairly good on the road while The Citadel has let down their ATS backers big time dropping 9/10. I make the game Wofford 20 so there is enough room to make this a value play.
Eastern Illinois – 1 1/2 versus Morehead State, 4:15 pm
Morehead State has struggled ATS recently losing 8/10, while E Ill has won their last 2 at home. My number is not much help being E Ill by 2 but with recent play and a positive series result I think this small home favorite has enough to cover.
Belmont -18 versus Tennessee-Martin, 6 pm
Belmont opened 20 but has dropped to 18 in some spots, however I like the favorite to cover as my number is 27 and recent play is not changing my mind. Belmont has covered their last 7 in a row (not counting an overtime loss as a dog) and laying 19 or less has the advantage in value.
That’s it for this Saturday; I will tweet if I see anything of note.
Play Well, And Good Luck To Us!
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