2019 Big Ten win totals, betting advice and predictions: Is it finally Michigan’s year?

Predicting Big Ten win totals for the 2019 college football season. Who will exceed expectations and who will falter?

There are plenty of questions heading into the 2019 season for the Big Ten conference. How will Ryan Day handle leading Ohio State in his first season, and will quarterback Justin Fields live up to the hype? Can Michigan finally break through this season despite losing some top talent on defense? Who will win the wild Big Ten west this year?

Those questions will dictate how the Big Ten shakes out this coming season. With the win totals out for each Big Ten school, let’s dive into each and give predictions and thoughts for each team this upcoming season.

Win totals courtesy of FanDuel. No line for Rutgers due to New Jersey law.

2019 Big Ten win totals

Big Ten West

Illinois Fighting Illini: 3 wins

As a Fighting Illini alum, this hurts to see the win total so low. However, this number is warranted considering the Illini are coming off a 4-8 season in which they gave up 45-plus points seven times. Head coach Lovie Smith will need to have a better game plan and adjust his defense to suit a more versatile division in the Big Ten. The Illini do have three great recruits coming in Isaiah Williams, Marquez Beason, and Shammond Cooper, who will add speed on their respective sides of the ball. Not to mention they also bring back one of the better running backs in the country in Reggie Corbin. The real question is who will play quarterback. Will it be the freshman Williams, or will Matthew Robinson get a chance this season? When looking at the schedule, three wins exist at the beginning of the season. With a home date against Rutgers and a game early in the year against the Gophers, the Illini could find themselves nearing bowl territory. They get at least five this year.

Prediction: 5-7 (over)

Iowa Hawkeyes: 7.5 wins

The Iowa Hawkeyes are the most consistent team in the Big Ten West, finishing at a strong 8-4 last season. With key returnees on the offensive line, defensive end A.J. Epenesa moving to a starting role, and Nathan Stanley returning, this team should once again be a tough out in every game they play. When looking at the schedule, their game against the Iowa State Cyclones week three could dictate a lot for their season. If they win that game, betting the over is the right call. There are three easy ones on the schedule early, and looking at their history at home, one of Purdue and Penn State will likely go their way in October. Wisconsin and Northwestern are sliding out of power a bit, and with two home games against Minnesota and Illinois at the end of the year, eight wins should be doable once again for this team.

Prediction: 8-4 (over)

Minnesota Golden Gophers: 6.5 wins

It seems every year we talk about how this is the year for the Golden Gophers under P.J. Fleck. When looking at their schedule in 2019, it looks doable to reach seven wins as they did in 2018. They don’t play either Michigan school and they avoid Ohio State. The problem with this team is that they are by far the most inconsistent in the Big Ten. Are they the team that dismantled Purdue and Wisconsin, or are they the team that got thrashed by Maryland and Illinois? The good news is that they get Penn State, Nebraska, and Wisconsin at home this year. The bad news is that they probably still lose two of those three games. With probable losses against Purdue and Iowa on the road, their seven-win season will likely hang in the balance of taking care of Illinois and Maryland at home. I just don’t see them getting both of those games.

Prediction: 6-6 (under)

Nebraska Cornhuskers: 8.5 wins

The expectations are high for Scott Frost and company in his second season as head coach of Nebraska. With the west wide open, this is the year for the Cornhuskers to reach the Big Ten title game. Adrian Martinez will be at worst the second best quarterback in the conference and have this offense running on all cylinders this season. As far as the win total, I think the over is there for the taking. There are only three games on their schedule that give me some pause. The first is an early road trip to Boulder to play former Big 12 foe Colorado and Laviska Shenault. The other two are Ohio State (at home) and a road trip to West Lafayette. The Hawkeyes would give me pause, but that game is in Lincoln. Other than that, they look ready to take the Big Ten West. Take the over.

Prediction: 9-3 (over)

Northwestern Wildcats: 6.5 wins

I thought this would be one of the more difficult predictions to make in the Big Ten, but then I saw the schedule. I get that the Wildcats have a lot of returnees and a new quarterback in Hunter Johnson, but the schedule has no relief in it until November. They have to start with a trip out west to play Stanford. They do host Michigan State, but back-to-back games on the road against Wisconsin and Nebraska hurt. Northwestern then has Iowa, Ohio State, and Purdue in three games out of four. That will be tough, even if all of their games are at home. Pat Fitzgerald has done a great job with this program the last few seasons, but this one will be tough. I think the under is the right call, but they will still make a bowl game.

Prediction: 6-6 (under)

Purdue Boilermakers: 8 wins

Since there’s no in-between here like most lines, eight wins is a tough one to gauge. Could this end up being a push? It is certainly possible. However, at first glance, the schedule starts out pretty tough for the Boilermakers. Their three non-conference games will all be a test. They start traveling to play Nevada, a team who always plays quality football. Then, they return for games against Vanderbilt, who will be a lot better with Riley Neal at quarterback and Ke’Shawn Vaughn returning, and TCU, who has one of the better offenses and a stud at wide receiver in Jalen Raegor. Purdue will have to win a shootout in that one. The schedule eases a bit after that, but road trips to Penn State, Iowa, and Wisconsin won’t be easy. However, I do think this is an eight-win squad, I just don’t see a way to hit the over. My prediction is a push, but the smart money is to go under.

Prediction: 8-4 (push)

Wisconsin Badgers: 8.5 wins

The Badgers are at a crossroads, thanks to their disappointing 2018 season when many believed they could reach the College Football Playoff. Now they will be fighting for their lives in the Big Ten West. With Alex Hornibrook gone, the quarterback position will belong to Jack Coan or freshman Graham Mertz. The team could go into the season younger than they’ve been in a long while, and it will be difficult to replace T.J. Edwards and D’Cota Dixon on defense. When it comes to the schedule, they do get both Michigan schools at home, which at best leads to a split. They have to travel to Columbus, and a road trip to Champaign might not be as easy as it was in years past. They have Iowa and Purdue at home in November, but they will both be tough outs. A trip to Lincoln will be extremely tough with a rising Nebraska team. With how young they are, the right bet is the under.

Prediction: 7-5 (under)

Big Ten East

Indiana Hoosiers: 6 wins

The Indiana Hoosiers finished 5-7 in 2018, and the win total is set at six for the 2019 season. At first glance, their non-conference games shouldn’t be a problem. Once Big Ten play starts, they’re in for a ride. They get the Buckeyes at home and Michigan State on the road early in the season, followed by an October with two road games against Maryland and Nebraska, followed by a visit from Northwestern. If they somehow get a couple of those October/early November games, they’ll find themselves with a three-game finish that will probably yield no wins (at Penn State, vs. Michigan, at Purdue). Best case scenario is six wins, but I’m taking the under with how difficult this schedule is.

Prediction: 5-7 (under)

Maryland Terrapins: 4.5 wins

The Terps finished last season at 5-7, with some close losses that could’ve gone either way, most notably against the Buckeyes. This season won’t be any easier for them, but perhaps transfer quarterback Josh Jackson and the return of running back Anthony McFarland can help the offense a bit more. It starts with the non-conference schedule, where the Syracuse Orange come to town the second week of the season. Syracuse has pushed Clemson to the limit in back-to-back seasons, so they will be a test. They have a tough road game in West Lafayette in October, then finish with the Wolverines and Cornhuskers at home and the Buckeyes and Spartans on the road. A tough finish will put them out of bowl range, but they’ll be over the 4.5.

Prediction: 5-7 (over)

Michigan Wolverines: 9.5 wins

This could be the year for the Wolverines. After several seasons without a playoff appearance, the Wolverines return three studs at receiver, along with quarterback Shea Patterson, who has a year of experience in Michigan’s offense under his belt. They did lose quite a bit on defense, but they have the advantage of Ohio State under a first-year head coach (Ryan Day and first-time starter at quarterback (Justin Fields). It’s now or never. The first test of the season will be a trip to Madison, but with Wisconsin being so young, they should be fine. A trip to Happy Valley shouldn’t be a problem with a transition year for the Nittany Lions. Their two toughest tests, the Fighting Irish and the Buckeyes, will both be home games. It looks like a 10-win season on paper, so the over makes sense here. The real question will be if they finally make the Big Ten title game.

Prediction: 10-2 (over)

Michigan State Spartans: 7.5 wins

Last year, Sparty finished the regular season at 7-5, just under the win total over/under for 2019. The Spartans were inconsistent in 2018, and it started with quarterback play. Fully healthy for 2019, quarterback Brian Lewerke hopes to regain some of his 2017 form. As far as the schedule goes, the Spartans will have plenty of defense to stay in games, with edge rusher Kenny Willekes leading the way. Their first three games should be wins and expect revenge from last season’s loss to Arizona State. Back-to-back road games against Ohio State and Wisconsin will be tough, and I’m not sure they get either of them. The big game will be Penn State at home, which will dictate both of their seasons. I think they get it, but their inconsistency elsewhere drops them down.

Prediction: 7-5 (under)

Ohio State Buckeyes: 10.5 wins

The Buckeyes have a first-year head coach and a transfer quarterback in his first full season, but Ohio State has the schedule to warrant a chance to get to 11 wins. They get Wisconsin, Penn State, and Michigan State all at home, leaving their two toughest tests at Nebraska and at Michigan. Ohio State is still the class of the conference, so Nebraska should be a win. Justin Fields has plenty around him on offense, and with a younger Michigan defense, I still think they go over 10.5, even if they suffer some surprising loss along the way.

Prediction: 11-1 (over)

Penn State Nittany Lions: 8.5 wins

Penn State is in a transition year with the loss of Trace McSorley and Miles Sanders. They have reloaded, but the inexperience will cost them some games. Road games in East Lansing and Columbus will probably be losses, but the Michigan State game is still a toss-up. Michigan at home will likely be another loss. The games that will decide this will be a home game against Purdue and a road game in Iowa City. I think Penn State loses in Iowa City, and they may even drop one to Purdue, which puts them under the 8.5 win total.

Prediction: 8-4 (under)