Zack Greinke’s change-up costs Astros Game 3
By Sean Sears
The Houston Astros were hoping to end the ALDS Monday afternoon in Tampa Bay, but after a poor start from Zack Greinke, the Astros are likely heading to a Game 4.
The Astros’ big move at the deadline was acquiring Zack Greinke to slide into the rotation behind aces Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole, giving Houston arguably the best rotation in the postseason. And after two stellar starts from Verlander and Cole, the Astros sent the veteran Greinke to the mound for Game 3 in Tampa Bay hoping he’d be able to drive their club home and into the next round of the postseason.
But that didn’t happen.
Actually, the opposite sort of did. The 35-year-old only managed to go 3.2 IP giving up 6 runs and allowing the Rays to go deep three times. Greinke was struggling to throw his offspeed pitches Monday afternoon, specifically his change-up, constantly catching too much of the plate. And for a guy who only throws about 93 MPH on a good day, Greinke needs his change-up to work off his fastball and continue to fool hitters.
Slow and steady wins the race.
— MLB Stats (@MLBStats) October 7, 2019
On pitches slower than 70 MPH, Zack Greinke held opponents to a .078 BAA and a .130 SLG. pic.twitter.com/uDGfDM0es3
According to Brooks Baseball, Greinke goes to his change-up nearly 21 percent of the time, only throwing his fastball more at almost 41 percent. Batters only hit .200 against the pitch and Greinke had only allowed three home runs on the pitch all season. But on Monday afternoon, the Rays two him deep twice on the pitch, first a three-run shot from CF Kevin Kiermaier in the 2nd and then a solo-homer from DH Man Choi, accounting for four of the five runs surrendered by Grienke.
For what it is worth, the Rays are scoring runs off of everyone in Houston’s pitching staff right now, but Game 3 did raise some concerns about the Astros arms behind Verlander and Cole. Greinke looked to just have a bad game, and it’s worth noting that the one time Greinke faced the Rays in the regular season he gave up five runs, so the Rays may just have his number.
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But neither Hector Rondon or Wade Miley had much more success against Tampa Bay’s offense, and with Charlie Morton throwing five innings of one-run baseball, the margin for error was thin in Game 3. Either way, Greinke and his fluttering change-up gave the Rays life in this series and took away the Astros chance to rest both Verlander and Cole before the ALCS.