March Madness bracket preview: Winners and losers – Baylor gets No. 1 overall seed

The March Madness bracket preview revealed the Top 16 seeds with Baylor, Kansas, Gonzaga and San Diego State getting No. 1 seeds.

March Madness is still a month away but college basketball fans got a sense of what the bracket could look like with the reveal of the top 16 seeds.

The top seed is the current No. 1 team in the AP Poll, Baylor, followed by Big 12 rival Kansas and Gonzaga and San Diego State getting the remaining No. 1 seeds. Duke, Dayton, Louisville and West Virginia received the No. 2 seeds. Maryland, Florida State, Seton Hall and Villanova got the No. 3 seeds. Auburn, Oregon, Butler and Michigan State were the recipients of the No. 4 seeds.

March Madness Top 16 seeds

1. Baylor
2. Kansas
3. Gonzaga
4. San Diego St.
5. Duke
6. Dayton
7. Louisville
8. West Virginia
9. Maryland
10. Florida St.
11. Seton Hall
12. Villanova
13. Auburn
14. Oregon
15. Butler
16. Michigan St.

Winners

San Diego State

The last undefeated team in college basketball, the San Diego State Aztecs have surged to no. 4 in the latest AP poll. The key to the Aztecs’ success is their outstanding defense, which ranks third in the country in terms of points per game. And a balanced offensive attack headlined by junior guard Malachi Flynn, who is averaging 16.5 points per game and knocking down 39.1 percent of his 3-point attempts.

The subpar nature of the Mountain West which may only get one other team in raised questions about the level of respect San Diego State would get from the selection committee. The Aztecs were not only given a top seed but were involved in one of the most serious debates the committee had: whether or not San Diego State or Gonzaga should be the third overall seed and placed in the West Region.

Most pundits had placed Gonzaga on another plane compared to San Diego State, so the fact the Aztecs were compared favorably to the Bulldogs is a huge boost for their chances. An undefeated season could see San Diego State leapfrog the Bulldogs despite playing in an inferior league, which is a boon for travel come March.

Butler

There may not be a more surprising story in the Big East this season than Butler, which was projected to finish eighth in the league’s preseason polls only to race off to a 15-1 start. Like the Aztecs, the Bulldogs rely on a stout defense to keep games close, rating as the nation’s 16th most efficient team in the KenPom rankings.

Big East play hit the Bulldogs like a freight train, however, with Butler dropping four of their next seven games to fall out of the top-10 all the way to 19 in the most recent AP poll. The committee was very high on Butler, however, giving the Bulldogs a four seed and rating them ahead of squads like Michigan State, Kentucky and Iowa.

This is a tremendous sign for Butler, which will clearly be rewarded for the strong work they did in the non-conference season. If the Bulldogs can keep pace in the Big East they should be handsomely rewarded in March.

Parity

If there is one thing the selection committee confirmed, it’s this season is the most parity filled ever. The mock bracket exercise revealed teams from nine different conferences in the top 16, which would be a record pace. In addition, three of the top eight seeds went to schools from non-power conferences in Gonzaga (WCC), San Diego State (Mountain West), and Dayton (A-10). This definitely feels like a year where anyone can cut down the nets in early April and the selection committee confirmed parity is a big deal.

Losers

Kentucky

There may not be a bigger faller in the mock bracket exercise than Kentucky, who has looked like the best team in college basketball at times this season. The Wildcats were powered by elite freshmen early but the emergence of junior forward Nick Richards as a two-way player and the valuable floor spacing ability of grad transfer Nate Sestina have made Kentucky a much more versatile offense.

In terms of resume, Kentucky has some of the best wins in the country, including a neutral-court victory over then-No. 1 Michigan State in November and a home win over Louisville, but the SEC doesn’t provide a ton of Quadrant I opportunities for the Wildcats. Bad losses to Evansville, Utah, and South Carolina have dragged down the Wildcats outside the top 16 teams.

Kentucky will still easily make the NCAA Tournament, but their seed line may be capped by those poor losses and a lack of big win opportunities in conference play. That would set the Wildcats up for a much more difficult road to the Final Four.

Florida State

The ACC has been widely regarded as a top-heavy league, and all three of its top dogs found themselves in the top 16 seeds. While Duke and Louisville each ended up on the two-line, the surprise was Florida State as a three.

Despite a 19-3 record entering Saturday’s game against Miami, the Seminoles rating behind Maryland on the three-line is an indication their resume isn’t as strong as we assumed. Wins that appeared strong at the time in non-conference play have lost stock as Florida, Purdue and Tennessee have faded towards the bubble and a bad loss against Pittsburgh are a black mark for Leonard Hamilton’s team.

The Seminoles are still in a tremendous position to make a deep March run, but their upward trajectory will be severely limited by their lack of Quadrant I opportunities in the ACC. Outside of beating Duke and/or Louisville, there doesn’t appear to be much Florida State can do to further impress the selection committee.

The Pac-12

There may not be a league in the country that was given less respect in the mock bracket exercise than the Pac-12, which placed only Oregon inside the top-16 seeds. That comes despite featuring an Arizona team that ranked inside the top ten in NET ratings at the time of the exercise thanks to a rigorous non-conference schedule.

The Pac-12 is certainly on the way up and could send as many as six teams to the NCAA Tournament, but it is clear the committee doesn’t feel any team outside of Oregon is a legitimate threat to win a national championship. There is still a ton of work to be done for the Pac-12, making them the last fast faller of the week.

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