Last week, there was a reckoning for many teams in the top 10. For the first time in the history of the college football AP Poll, dating back to 1939, five of the top eight teams in the rankings lost in the same week.
This shows the leveling off in talent across teams at the top, with more squads having a chance to win titles. This is great for fans and those who love the game. It does make it more difficult to pick upsets though. If everyone is getting beaten, then what really is an upset?
Well, this week, these are the games with lines that I like. Also, the line is too short for this article but, consider Tennessee plus-2.5 over South Carolina, even with Columbia being a house of horrors for the Volunteers in recent visits.
Air Force Falcons at Wyoming Cowboys
- Time: Friday, 9 p.m. ET, CW
- Odds: Air Force -5.5 (-106)
- Moneyline: Air Force -205, Wyoming +168)Â
Wyoming is not a good team. But neither is Air Force who won their game last week despite not having one completion in the entire game on offense. If Wyoming can stop the run game of Air Force just enough, the offense of the Cowboys can squeeze out a win on Friday night in Laramie.Â
Oklahoma Sooners at Mississippi State Bulldogs
- Time: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, SEC Network
- Odds: Oklahoma -4.5 (-112)
- Moneyline: Oklahoma -205, Mississippi State +168
We took Kentucky against Oklahoma last week in the easiest pick I have made this year. In most cases, Vegas knows something that we don’t which is why the lines turn out the way they do. But something was still fishy with Oklahoma being close to a touchdown favorite over anyonem especially an up-and-coming Wildcats team.
This week, depending on if Kamario Taylor finally returns, Mississippi State is the team getting too many points.
Oklahoma has a good defense, one that is extremely fast. But so is Taylor and the pass rush of the Sooners front seven has not been stellar this season. This will allow Taylor to have time in the pocket to either find receivers with his strong arm or run the ball for first downs to move the chains.
John Mateer looked slightly better last week then he had in previous weeks. But when you are used to eating Spam even Oscar Mayer looks like a delicacy.Â
If Taylor does not play again, this line is not high enough and Oklahoma can win by double-digits. I am going to take the chance, for the second week in a row that Taylor does play, and Jeff Levy uses him to trample over the Sooners across the fields of Starkville. It may not be Sweet Home Alabama, but there will be bells.
Ole Miss Rebels at Texas Longhorns
- Time: Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC
- Odds: Texas -3.5 (-102)
- Moneyline: Texas -156, Ole Miss +130
Steve Sarkisian has said it will take a lot for Arch Manning to get benched. A terrible game against Ole Miss might be the thing to do it.
There are already rumors floating online about Sarkisian being let go if he loses another game and the Texas A&M game. If this does happen, he should be fired as he will have squandered $50 million on a roster which was built for this season alone.
This was supposed to be the coming-out party of Manning as the top overall draft pick in 2027 and wide receiver Cam Coleman was paid $2 million to make sure he had all the weapons he needed.
It has not gone well for Manning or the running game. Big money transfer Hollywood Smothers has also disappointed behind a lackluster offensive line. While the defense is tops in the country, they will be playing without star Collin Simmons, making it easier for Trinidad Chambliss and, hopefully, Kewan Lacy to operate.
I took a loss taking the Rebels to win when I believed in them against Florida. This is a different scenario, and Ole Miss is not coming off an emotional win. Pete Golding will have the team ready and focused against a Texas team on their last legs.
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