Coming into the trade deadline, it felt like the NL East was more or less wrapped in a bow for the Atlanta Braves. August has since turned into Philadelphia Phillies Month, however. The Phils are the hottest team in baseball, with a 14-5 record in August, compared to Atlanta's 10-9 record. That includes seven straight wins for the former, with Philadelphia only four games back in the division. There's still a month and change left in the regular season, and the Phillies are no strangers to late-season surges.
The numbers and the odds still favor Atlanta, but the numbers and the odds can't always capture momentum. While the smart bet is probably on the Braves — what goes up must come down, as they say — Philadelphia certainly has the feel of a team with something to prove. Here's what has to happen for the Phillies to get the job done and secure home-field advantage in Round 1 of the playoffs.
Phillies need Andrew Painter and Aaron Nola to keep it up
For months, the Phillies quite literally could not win if Zack Wheeler, Cristoper Sánchez or Jesús Luzardo weren't on the mound. The tide has gradually begun to turn, with Nola and Painter both finding a higher gear in August. Painter gave up five runs in his last start, but his fastball graded out better than it has all season. The high-end fastball that has eluded him post-Tommy John surgery may finally be coming back around.
Nola, meanwhile, has a crisp 2.51 ERA over his last five starts. The knuckle curve still eats and he's getting luckier with his fastball. Luck is not really something that lasts, but if Nola can work the edges and set up his curve without getting knocked around like he was early in the season, he still has the makings of a solid No. 4 starter. The Phillies will never return the value on that contract, but Nola's experience in high-pressure environments certainly can't hurt.
The Phillies' trio of aces atop the rotation will invariably be their calling card come October, but if the goal is to catch Atlanta in the standings, they need the rotation to stand five strong — as it has the past few weeks. Painter's full-on breakthrough probably won't come until 2027, but the Phillies no doubt feel better about their full five than they have in a while.
Will the real Alec Bohm please stand up?
Alec Bohm has spent most of this season among the worst qualified hitters in baseball. He's up to a .692 OPS and 89 wRC+ on the year — with a .944 OPS in August. He hammered a 405-foot, game-winning triple on Friday night to secure Philadelphia's seventh straight win. Down and out, with Phillies fans begging for him to be benched or even DFA'd, Bohm has found a way to restore goodwill and send Philadelphia's long-dormant lineup into overdrive.
Is this "real"? Is it remotely sustainable? That remains to be seen. The Phillies have long believed in Bohm and thus offered him more grace and patience than he probably deserved. The 30-year-old, a former top-five pick, is now in the final year of his contract. The natural talent was always present, buried just beneath the surface due to poor swing decisions under pressure. His tendency to hit soft grounders with runners in scoring position has been a running joke/complaint for years now. Is that suddenly in the rearview mirror?
The answer is... probably not. But if the Phillies can feel remotely good about Bohm in the five-hole, cleaning up behind Luis Arráez and the big boppers at the top of the lineup, is dramatically changes their outlook come October. Sometimes all it takes is a little patience — maybe a lot of patience — for talent to actualize. Phillies fans certainly hope this Bohm breakout is real.
The bullpen will make or break the Phillies
The Phillies bullpen came under the microscope as soon as Brad Keller was ruled out for the season with a UCL injury. While the Phillies aren't short on talented relievers, their depth in higher-leverage spots — particularly those pesky seventh and eighth innings, setting the table for Jhoan Durán — is suspect. It's also fair to question Don Mattingly's feel for bullpen subs and patterns, for which he has taken considerable flak all season.
Still, there are reasons for optimism, and Philly's bullpen has fared well during this red-hot month of August. Jonathan Bowlan, with his 2.89 ERA and 1.0 fWAR, has been a resounding success story after the much-criticized Matt Strahm trade. Orion Kerkering still has PTSD from his muffed groundball in the NLDS a year ago, but he's looking like his old self for the most part. Caleb Killian, one of their bullpen pickups at the deadline, is unfortunately hurt, but their other addition — 38-year-old southpaw Brooks Raley — has fared well in late innings all season, with a 2.23 ERA.
The pressure points start with Chase Shugart, with his 4.61 ERA and -0.2 fWAR. He has found himself in a few too many important spots this season and struggled to convert, which falls on Mattingly as much as anyone. José Alvarado has a 6.00 ERA and 1.58 WHIP through 45.0 innings — but he also has 56 strikeouts and a 3.83 expected ERA. Part of that is bad luck, part of it is poor command and sinkers left hanging over the meat of the plate. Either way, the Phillies need him to string together a few uneventful weeks to feel good about breaking him out in the playoffs, and such a stint of positive regression would undoubtedly help Philly continue its rise in the standings.
The new wild card is rookie Alex McFarlane, who has pitched 5.1 innings with five hits, three walks but only one earned run (1.69 ERA) allowed. McFarlane dominated at every level in the minors and put himself in this position accordingly, but his command is erratic and his triple-digit heat is not missing bats quite like it did in Double-A. The high groundball rate (56.3 percent) is promising, and it has helped him dance out of a couple jams, but the Phillies need him to lock in — quickly. McFarlane has the talent to become a genuine ace up their sleeve down the stretch, but he has to iron out some natural growing pains and refine his execution to really help. Especially since he is the de facto replacement for Keller, whom the Phillies paid good money for in the offseason.
Phillies need Luis Arráez to keep unlocking Bryce Harper
Bryce Harper leads MLB in walks with 92. While it's nothing new for pitchers to tread carefully with Harper at the plate, his current walk rate (16.7 percent) is a dramatic improvement over last season's number (12.1 percent). In August, he has almost twice as many walks (26) as strikeouts (14), with a .500 on-base percentage. It's been a while since Harper looked this comfortable taking pitches and working deep into counts.
There's no single reason for this shift, as Mattingly implored his guys to work on their approach. But the most obvious, tangible change is Luis Arráez's arrival after the trade deadline. Rather than Alec Bohm or Brandon Marsh behind him, Harper now has the best contact hitter in the sport to clean up the bases.
It was common to watch Harper earlier in the season and come away thinking he felt the need to do everything — to swing for the fences, literally and figuratively — because the No. 4 hole was a non-factor in the lineup. If Harper couldn't drive in runs, he couldn't really trust the man behind him to come through. So he often overextended himself.
With Arráez batting cleanup, it's now guaranteed that if he draws a walk or grinds a two-out single, for example, the guy behind him will put the ball in play. Arráez is not known for his power, but his mastery of timing and angles is unmatched. He knows exactly where to drop a hit based on matchup and situation. There has been a runner on base for Arráez in 44-of-70 plate appearances, and he's batting .310 with 11 RBI in that span.
That was Luis Arraez 70th plate appearance since joining the Phillies. He's had at least one runner on base in 44 of them.
— Anthony SanFilippo (@AntSanPhilly) August 21, 2026
If Arráez can keep doing what he has done for eight years now, it will empower Harper to take a more patient approach. It also forces pitchers to attack Harper more directly, because Arráez almost never strikes out and is thus dangerous with runners on base. Nibble, and Harper will take the walk. Attack him in fear of Arráez, and we know the damage Harper can dish out when he catches one in the zone.
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