The MLB Playoffs are right around the corner. For 12 MLB teams, such as the Braves, Dodgers and Brewers in the Nationals League, alongside the Rays, Yankees and Red Sox in the American League, that's cause for celebration. At least half — if not more MLB contenders — can pretty much pack their bags for the playoffs. However, some questions remain, such as who will win the AL Central and AL West, and how the Wild Card will play out.
Without further ado, let's get right to it. Thanks to Opta Analyst, otherwise known as our trusty supercomputer powered by the Stats platform, FanSided can project what the final MLB standings will look like, and thus get an early postseason preview. Opta uses projection models to predict the future. It is rarely 100% correct, but Opta also offers percentages to reveal its confidence in certain outcomes, such as the likelihood the Texas Rangers make the playoffs.
Supercomputer predicts the final American League standings
It's fair to say one of the three American League East frontrunners will finish with the best record in the AL, and thus have the inside track to a pennant. Per the supercomputer, the Rays, Yankees and Red Sox rank first, second and third in projected win total in the AL, and that shouldn't come as a huge surprise. The AL Central and AL West, while formidable divisions, are led by teams just a few games over .500. Heck, the Astros are just 61-60 as of this writing.
Still, all it takes is one Wild Card or division contender to get hot to shake up the playoff picture. Speaking of, who would've expected the Tigers to chase a Wild Card spot AFTER dealing Tarik Skubal? More on that later.
AL East
Seed | Team | Predicted wins | Predicted losses | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Rays | 96 | 66 | 100 |
2 | Yankees | 91.6 | 70.4 | 98.8 |
3 | Red Sox | 88.1 | 73.9 | 94.2 |
4 | Blue Jays | 77.8 | 84.2 | 10.1 |
5 | Orioles | 77.5 | 84.5 | 10.2 |
AL Central
Seed | Team | Predicted wins | Predicted losses | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | White Sox | 83.8 | 78.2 | 70.4 |
2 | Tigers | 83.1 | 78.9 | 60 |
3 | Guardians | 79.4 | 82.6 | 22.2 |
4 | Twins | 78.2 | 83.8 | 15.2 |
5 | Royals | 67.4 | 94.6 | 0 |
AL West
Seed | Team | Predicted wins | Predicted losses | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Astros | 81.5 | 80.5 | 60 |
2 | Rangers | 80.8 | 81.2 | 46.6 |
3 | Mariners | 76.7 | 85.3 | 12.2 |
4 | A's | 65.1 | 96.9 | 0 |
5 | Angels | 64.8 | 97.2 | 0.1 |
AL Playoff Picture
- No. 1 (BYE): Tampa Bay Rays
- No. 2 (BYE): Chicago White Sox
- (3) Houston Astros vs (6) Detroit Tigers
- (4) New York Yankees vs (5) Boston Red Sox
As always in the modern format, the first two seeds get a bye. The Rays are locked into that top spot now barring a late-season run by the Yankees or Red Sox. Meanwhile, the White Sox hold just a 2.5-game lead over the Tigers as of Wednesday. Detroit hosts Chicago over the weekend and could take over first place in the Central — and that Wild Card round bye — should the results go their way.
Supercomputer predicts final National League standings
There aren't many surprises in store for the National League down the stretch. The Brewers, Braves, Dodgers and Cubs are all essentially guaranteed playoff spots. The question remains which of those four teams can secure a first-round bye, with the Brewers looking the most likely as of this writing. The battle for the final NL Wild Card spots should be exhilarating, with the Diamondbacks, Phillies and Padres all tied heading into play on Wednesday. Only two of the three teams can make the playoffs, as the Cubs have a sound advantage for the WC1 spot.
NL East
Seed | Team | Predicted wins | Predicted losses | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Braves | 95.2 | 66.8 | 99.8 |
2 | Phillies | 84.6 | 77.4 | 47.5 |
3 | Marlins | 81.5 | 80.5 | 21.4 |
4 | Nationals | 79.9 | 82.1 | 8.1 |
5 | Mets | 72.4 | 89.6 | 0.1 |
NL Central
Seed | Team | Predicted wins | Predicted losses | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Brewers | 96.7 | 65.3 | 100 |
2 | Cubs | 93.2 | 68.8 | 99 |
3 | Cardinals | 80.7 | 81.3 | 13.2 |
4 | Pirates | 78.1 | 83.9 | 3 |
5 | Reds | 75.9 | 86.1 | 1.2 |
NL West
Seed | Team | Predicted wins | Predicted losses | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Dodgers | 95.4 | 66.6 | 99.8 |
2 | Diamondbacks | 85.3 | 76.8 | 56.5 |
3 | Padres | 85.0 | 77 | 50.3 |
4 | Giants | 69.6 | 92.4 | 0 |
5 | Rockies | 65 | 97 | 0 |
NL Playoff Picture
- No. 1 (BYE): Milwaukee Brewers
- No. 2 (BYE): Los Angeles Dodgers
- (3) Atlanta Braves vs (6) San Diego Padres
- (4) Chicago Cubs vs (5) Arizona Diamondbacks
By just a fraction of a percent, the supercomputer projects the Phillies to be the odd team out in the NL Wild Card race. If that's the case, it'll be the greatest disappointment in the City of Brotherly Love since Wawa rolled out its new pizza. The Padres have been one of the hottest teams in baseball since the MLB trade deadline, and are making AJ Preller look awfully smart for adding pieces, rather than trading Mason Miller and more.
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