After so much buildup leading to the 2026 MLB trade deadline, it’s difficult to believe that a week has already gone by since the clock hit zeroes. Not much has changed in the overall playoff picture, though the American League’s mostly clustered standings only further our intrigue.
As we continue to leave the trade deadline behind us, let’s take a look at how we think the playoff bracket will turn out. To be clear, we are predicting the six teams that will make the postseason in each league.
Current American League postseason bracket
Home | Away |
|---|---|
1. Tampa Bay Rays | FIRST ROUND BYE |
2. Chicago White Sox | FIRST ROUND BYE |
3. Seattle Mariners | 6. Houston Astros |
4. Boston Red Sox | 5. New York Yankees |
American League playoff field predictions
- The White Sox still win the AL Central
- Red Sox finish above the Yankees
Talk about an exciting time in the American League. Only four games separate the AL Central-leading White Sox and the fourth-place Guardians, with the surging Tigers making their play at an unexpected division crown. Then there’s the AL West, where the 60-59 Astros only have a half-game lead on the rival Rangers. In part because of defending AL MVP runner-up Cal Raleigh’s terrible season, the disappointing Mariners are four games back.
Out in the AL East, the Rays have won six straight and are inching closer to the AL’s top playoff seed. Tampa Bay is 71-46, a full 10 games above the No. 2 seed White Sox.
Tampa Bay Rays
Freddy Peralta makes his second Rays start on Monday night, and it can’t get much worse than last Tuesday’s debut against the lowly Rockies. Luckily for the Rays, they’ve won six straight and own a 5 ½-game lead over the second-place Yankees. It’ll likely take a Mets-esque collapse for the Rays to relinquish their hold on the AL East.
Junior Caminero is one home run away from sole possession of 10th place on the Rays’ all-time list. Given that he already has 85 homers in a Rays uniform, it’s not unrealistic to think he could surpass B.J. Upton, who holds fifth place with 118 home runs, before the end of next season.
Chicago White Sox
Whatever happened to rookie phenom Munetaka Murakami? He’s hitting just .182 with a .424 OPS in 37 August plate appearances, and he’s managed only six home runs since the start of July. So much for him hitting 162 home runs.
The White Sox are in good shape to win their first AL Central title since 2021, and they already have their most wins since 2022. This is the same team that went an MLB-record 41-111 two years ago, by the way.
Seattle Mariners
If the baseball gods truly exist, then they definitely deemed Cal Raleigh a worthy victim of karma. We’ve talked plenty about his preseason feud with teammate Randy Arozarena and him essentially blaming his down season on the World Baseball Classic. Good luck convincing anyone outside of Seattle that Raleigh can be trusted down the stretch.
So, why are we picking the Mariners to win the AL West? Arozarena and Julio Rodríguez remain above-average starting outfielders, and the rotation is good enough to outlast the Astros and Rangers. Rallying from four games out on Aug. 10 is far easier said than done, though.
Boston Red Sox
Our first massive change is picking the Red Sox to secure the AL’s top Wild Card seed rather than the Yankees. Adley Rutschman is finally expected to make his Boston debut later this week, likely against the last-place Blue Jays in Toronto.
Now is the time for the Red Sox to cement themselves as legitimate contenders. Of their next five series, only one is against a team even within two games of a playoff spot. How will the Red Sox fare in those 16 games? Anything less than 11 wins in that span should be considered a failure.
New York Yankees
All hail George Lombard Jr.! The rookie phenom is hitting .294 with two solo home runs and a 1.047 OPS through five games. He’s already tallied 0.6 bWAR, partly because he’s a far superior defender compared to the since-demoted Anthony Volpe.
Everything considered, the Yankees are still built for a World Series run. But those summer swoons always come back to haunt them, and that’s why they lost the tiebreaker to the Blue Jays last year. Look for something similar to happen this year with both the Rays and Red Sox.
Houston Astros
For whatever reason, I just cannot talk myself into the Rangers being a playoff team. That paves the way for the Astros to return to the postseason and attempt to win one final ring in the Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa era.
Hunter Brown struck out eight and allowed two runs over six innings against the Blue Jays last Wednesday. The fact that he’s looked far sharper in his last three starts should have the AL West-leading Astros extremely excited. Will they prove me wrong and win the division?
Current National League postseason bracket
Home | Away |
|---|---|
1. Milwaukee Brewers | FIRST ROUND BYE |
2. Atlanta Braves | FIRST ROUND BYE |
3. Los Angeles Dodgers | 6. Arizona Diamondbacks |
4. Chicago Cubs | 5. Philadelphia Phillies |
National League playoff field predictions
- None of the current division leaders collapse
- The Dodgers play in the Wild Card Round
Consider us shocked that the Brewers, Braves, and Dodgers are all still atop their divisions. That’s been the case all year, and it’s been the story for much of the last decade. We’ll see whether the Brewers finally join the other two among the championship winners.
As for the Wild Card winners? That’s another conversation that we’ll get to momentarily. First, though, let’s check in on the Brewers.
Milwaukee Brewers
At 74-44, the Brewers have an excellent opportunity to win 100 games for the first time in franchise history. It’s easy to lose track of the fact that the Brew Crew is only 16 victories away from its sixth 90-win season since the start of 2018.
Barring injury, Jacob Misiorowski should be holding the NL Cy Young trophy in November. The Brewers will need him to stay healthy and electric if he plans on adding a championship ring to the eventual award display.
Atlanta Braves
Veteran first baseman Matt Olson is only six home runs away from another 40-homer season, and his 253 total bases lead baseball. But our eyes are on the Braves’ outfield, which got Ronald Acuña Jr. back from a hamstring injury at the end of July. He’s quickly regained his power stroke, mashing four home runs with a .903 OPS through 35 August plate appearances.
And kudos to Chris Sale, who has a 2.20 ERA and 4.1 bWAR through 21 starts. He already has 151 strikeouts through 123 innings, putting him on pace for his ninth 200-strikeout campaign. We’re just wondering whether he’ll wear a White Sox or Braves cap on his Hall of Fame plaque.
Los Angeles Dodgers
How much longer will Shohei Ohtani be a two-way player? That’s a discussion that the Dodgers’ major figures, including Ohtani, must have this coming offseason. They’ve already won two championships with him leading the way, and there is no shame in the answer potentially being that he’ll be a full-time DH moving forward.
Otherwise, the Dodgers risk the intense workload backfiring for Ohtani yet again. All it takes is an elbow injury to permanently derail baseball’s latest dynasty, especially with Freddie Freeman getting older and Mookie Betts showing his age.
Chicago Cubs
Moving past the Brewers to win the NL Central is likely too difficult an ask for the Cubs, but they shouldn’t have any issues clinching a Wild Card spot. Pete Crow-Armstrong has overtaken Ohtani as the consensus NL MVP favorite, much to Mets fans’ dismay. Remember the Javier Báez trade? We sure do!
Clay Holmes made his Cubs debut on Saturday, allowing four runs and two walks in a 6-3 loss to the lowly Royals. He’s expected to make his next start against the rival Cardinals at Wrigley Field next weekend.
Philadelphia Phillies
It’s been business as usual for the Phillies, who entered Monday with a one-game lead over the Padres for the NL’s third and final Wild Card spot. Seeing as they’re tied with the Diamondbacks, I have no problem giving the No. 5 seed to the Phillies, especially after they acquired Luis Arraez at the deadline.
At least Chase Utley didn’t get to celebrate his Phillies Wall of Fame induction amid a losing season. Carlos Beltrán won’t have the same luck when he enters the Mets’ Hall of Fame and has his No. 15 retired next month, fittingly before a game against the Phillies.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Finally, we turn our attention to Corbin Carroll and the D-Backs. As previously argued, Fernando Tatis Jr. is incapable of leading a mediocre Padres team to a Wild Card seed, especially with Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts’ prolonged struggles.
Factor in the Marlins’ second-half struggles, and you have a 63-56 Diamondbacks team in position to steal a Wild Card seed. Although Carroll has a career-best 11.4% walk rate, his slugging percentage has dropped from .541 to .464. His .799 OPS is still significantly above league average, though, and he’s totaled 52 extra-base hits via 23 doubles, 13 triples, and 16 home runs. That’ll do in a pinch.
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