On the one hand, you have to respect that the San Diego Padres moved aggressively and signed Boston Red Sox All-Star shortstop Xander Bogaerts ahead of the 2023 season.Â
Unfortunately for the Padres, Bogaerts is quickly landing a spot on a list of the all-time worst baseball contracts. It’s not that he’s been awful for the duration of his four seasons, per se, but he’s come nowhere close to meeting the expectations that came with an 11-year, $280 million deal.
Bogaerts, who turns 34 in October, frequently looks like a shell of himself. His .644 OPS is his lowest since 2014, and he’s been worth just 4.8 bWAR since the start of 2024. And, because Bogaerts has a full no-trade clause, the Padres might be stuck with him for the foreseeable future.
What’s gone wrong with San Diego Padres shortstop Xander Bogaerts?
Although advanced metrics from outlets like Baseball Savant and MLB Statcast offer a different perspective on a player’s numbers, I personally prefer some of the simpler stats.
Take Bogaerts’ 12% walk rate, which is considerably above his career 8.6% average. His 18.4% strikeout percentage is right in line with his 18.0% average, as are his home run rates and exit velocity. So this isn’t the complete and sudden regression that we saw with someone like former Rangers All-Star outfielder Joey Gallo, whose career was never the same after being traded to the Yankees.
Interestingly, Bogaerts’ 53.3% ground ball rate is his highest in over a decade, and nearly 10 points higher than last year’s 43.6%. Needing to run out ground balls that often in your age-33 season doesn’t work out well. Even Ichiro Suzuki eventually lost a step, and he’s among the peskiest modern-era hitters. No matter where Ichiro hit the ball, he’d find a way to end up on first base.Â
Father time is catching up with Padres star Xander Bogaerts
​​As much of a cop-out as it sounds, it’s entirely possible that age is catching up with Bogaerts. He’s been a full-time starting shortstop since 2014, and that baggage piles up. Derek Jeter looked far more human in his final few seasons, outside of a stellar 2012 campaign that ended with a fractured ankle in the postseason.Â
If Bogaerts were set to hit free agency after next season, then this wouldn’t be as significant an issue. But this is exactly why you’re seeing more fans support a salary cap. How many of these excessive contracts exceeding five years work out as planned? The Angels were stuck with an aging Albert Pujols, and the Mets have backed themselves into a corner with Francisco Lindor.Â
Not only are the Padres feeling the ramifications of Bogaerts’ contract, but third baseman Manny Machado has been dreadful in his age-34 season, and he is owed $39 million in each of the next seven seasons. Oh, and he also has a full no-trade clause.
Add in the fact that the Padres share a division with the Dodgers, and you almost have to feel bad for them. They went all-in and, barring a shocking playoff run, appear as if they’re going to fail. But at least they tried. That’s more than we can say for several other teams. We’re looking at you, Rockies.Â
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