With the MLB trade deadline behind us, the playoff picture is starting to take focus. There is no predicting what will happen over the next two months. Will the Cleveland Guardians catch the Chicago White Sox in the AL Central? What of the AL Wild Card race as a whole, with three AL West teams — the Astros, Rangers and Mariners — all in the mix? In the National League, the Cubs have a stranglehold on the first NL Wild Card spot, but can the Phillies and Diamondbacks hold on? All of these questions, and more, can be answered by typical pundits like myself.
But what if I told you we had access to a supercomputer? Opta Analyst is powered by the Stats platform, and uses projection models to predict the future. It is rarely 100% correct, but Opta also offers percentages to reveal its confidence in certain outcomes, such as the likelihood the Philadelphia Phillies make the playoffs. Without further ado, let's jump right in.
Supercomputer predicts the final AL Wild Card standings
Seed | Team | Predicted Wins | Predicted Losses | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
WC1 | Yankees | 90.5 | 71.5 | 97.5 |
WC2 | Red Sox | 90.0 | 72.0 | 96.3 |
WC3 | Tigers | 81.6 | 80.4 | 41.0 |
OUT | Guardians | 80.9 | 81.1 | 35.9 |
OUT | Rangers | 80.2 | 81.8 | 35.2 |
OUT | Mariners | 79.3 | 82.8 | 28.9 |
OUT | Orioles | 78.9 | 83.1 | 17.8 |
OUT | Twins | 77.4 | 84.6 | 11.4 |
The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox will make the AL postseason barring a catastrophic collapse by either side in August and September. It's happened before, but would be quite the surprise, even if the Yankees are lacking Aaron Judge. Boston is on another seven-game winning streak of their own, and could overtake the Yankees atop the AL Wild Card standings soon enough.
The surprise of Opta's model is the Detroit Tigers. The Tigers traded Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal at the MLB trade deadline, leaving their starting rotation rather barren despite the emergence of Troy Melton. To make the postseason, the Tigers will have to hop many of the teams Opta projects them to beat — including the Rangers and Mariners in the AL West, and most importantly the rival Guardians. Cleveland is the odd team out here despite adding valuable weapons at the deadline, including Nathaniel Lowe, Foster Griffin and Jo Adell.
Supercomputer predicts the final NL Wild Card standings
Seed | Team | Predicted Wins | Predicted Losses | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
WC1 | Cubs | 92.0 | 70.0 | 96.6 |
WC2 | Diamondbacks | 85.7 | 76.3 | 63.2 |
WC3 | Phillies | 85.1 | 76.9 | 56.6 |
OUT | Padres | 82.4 | 79.6 | 27.4 |
OUT | Marlins | 80.7 | 81.3 | 19.3 |
OUT | Cardinals | 80.1 | 81.9 | 13.2 |
OUT | Pirates | 80.1 | 81.9 | 11.8 |
OUT | Nationals | 79.3 | 82.7 | 9.6 |
The Chicago Cubs are flying high after sweeping the Los Angeles Dodgers at Wrigley Field to kick off the week. Pete Crow-Armstrong is the likely NL MVP favorite for a reason, and the streaky Cubs have looked a lot more steady since the NL All-Star break, even if they won't catch the Brewers in the NL Central. Still, there's a reason Opta gives the Cubs at 96.6 percent chance to make the postseason. That's because it'd take a monumental collapse to change their fate.
As for the rest of the Wild Card contenders, the Phillies and Diamondbacks are the favorites to wind up with those final two spots. The San Diego Padres traded for Mize at the deadline and opted against dealing Mason Miller to a fellow contender. AJ Preller is all-in, but this projection model does not believe adding a frontline starter was enough for the Friars. Meanwhile, Pirates fans will be disappointed their bullpen haul doesn't put them over the top. Pittsburgh is two games under .500 as of this writing.
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