Less than two months remain in the 2026 MLB season, and we’re quickly getting an idea of which teams realistically have a shot of winning the World Series. The American League is still wide open, largely thanks to the surging Red Sox and Astros turning their seasons around. As for the National League, the three divisions feel decided, and the slumping Dodgers are still nine games up on the Diamondbacks.
With the trade deadline behind us, let’s take a look at how we think the playoff bracket will turn out. To be clear, we are predicting the six teams that will make the postseason in each league.
Current American League postseason bracket
Home | Away |
|---|---|
1. Tampa Bay Rays | FIRST ROUND BYE |
2. Chicago White Sox | FIRST ROUND BYE |
3. Houston Astros | 6. Cleveland Guardians |
4. New York Yankees | 5. Boston Red Sox |
American League playoff field predictions
- Texas Rangers win the AL West, not the Astros
- Astros still make the playoff as an AL Wild Card team
While the Astros and Guardians currently hold postseason spots in the wide-open American League, eventually the likes of the Texas Rangers should prevail in the AL West. Texas is loaded with talent and even avoided a complete fire sale at the deadline, opting to keep Nathan Eovaldi, Jacob deGrom and more of their star talent. Cleveland, despite some timely additions, could be the odd team out, especially considering the strength of the rosters they're competing against.
Tampa Bay Rays (AL East champions)
Only a couple of weeks ago, I predicted that the Rays would be the No. 6 seed and barely make the playoffs. Shows what I know. Tampa Bay entered Monday 3 ½ up on the Yankees and easily owning the AL’s best record. The only downside of them getting home-field advantage is even more playoff games at the abomination known as Tropicana Field.
Credit to the Rays, who were uncharacteristically aggressive and acquired Mets pitcher Freddy Peralta at the deadline. He certainly had an inauspicious debut, though, allowing seven runs and two homers in Tuesday’s 9-7 victory over the Rockies.
Chicago White Sox (AL Central champions)
Things more or less remain the same on the South Side. The White Sox continue finding ways to survive and entered Wednesday with a three-game lead over the Guardians. Only 4 ½ games separate the AL Central-leading White Sox and the fourth-place Tigers, who just traded Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize.
Former Mariners pitcher Luis Castillo is expected to make his White Sox debut on Thursday night. However, his 7.2% walk rate and career-worst 19.4% strikeout rate should create cause for concern.
Texas Rangers (AL West champions)
I’m still buying high on the Rangers, even amid a slump that now has them 2 ½ games back of the surging Astros. Corey Seager has been immensely disappointing when healthy, but Brandon Nimmo, Wyatt Langford, and Ezequiel Durán have more than picked up the slack.
Keep your eyes on Jacob deGrom, who invoked his no-trade clause earlier this week. The Phillies were reportedly extremely interested in the two-time Cy Young winner despite him gradually looking like the 38-year-old pitcher that he is.
New York Yankees
Top shortstop prospect George Lombard Jr. began his MLB career in style, hitting a home run and playing strong defense in Tuesday’s victory over the Cardinals. We’ll see whether the Anthony Volpe era is truly over, or if the Yankees will find a way to keep him in their long-term plans. No one should be surprised if either Volpe or Lombard changes positions next spring, allowing the notoriously loyal Aaron Boone to keep both in the lineup.
Failing to upgrade catcher at the deadline will come back to haunt the Yankees. Austin Wells has repeatedly proven that he cannot hit at the big-league level, and there’s not a catching prospect ready to provide an August jolt as Gary Sánchez once did.
Boston Red Sox
Enough has been said about the Red Sox’s Adley Rutschman trade, and he’ll make his debut later this week. In hindsight, it’s not overly surprising that the Red Sox kept embattled outfielder Jarren Duran. Given his dreadful offensive season and his constant feuds with fans and the media, he likely didn’t have many takers.
Duran told reporters on Tuesday night that he expected to be released if he wasn’t traded. The Red Sox have not indicated that the veteran outfielder is in danger of being released.
“I am the worst player in MLB statistically,” Duran said. “I hate looking at the numbers but when you’re going bad, you look at the numbers, and it was pretty obvious how bad I was.”
For what it's worth, Duran has been worth 0.4 bWAR, and there are 99 hitters who have recorded at least -0.4 bWAR.
Houston Astros
So long as the Astros have Yordan Alvarez, they’ll be in good shape. Jose Altuve’s regression has gone under the radar, though, and he's hitting just .241 with a .693 OPS in nearly 400 plate appearances. Did we mention that the 36-year-old Altuve is under contract through 2029 and has a full no-trade clause? Great work, Astros.
I'd have liked to see the Astros properly address starting pitching at the deadline, especially with how weak the AL West is. Eh, give me Houston sneaking into the playoffs as the No. 6 seed.
Current National League postseason bracket
Home | Away |
|---|---|
1. Milwaukee Brewers | FIRST ROUND BYE |
2. Los Angeles Dodgers | FIRST ROUND BYE |
3. Atlanta Braves | 6. Arizona Diamondbacks |
4. Chicago Cubs | 5. Philadelphia Phillies |
National League playoff field predictions
- Braves overtake the Dodgers for the No. 2 seed and a bye
- Padres continue their surge and take the D'Backs' wild card spot
Right now, the Dodgers hold the second-best record in the National League, but the Braves are hot on their heels, trailing by 0.5 games (one fewer win). As we're predicting the second half of the season, even after a tepid trade deadline, Atlanta can overtake their NL West nemesis to earn a crucial first round bye. That would then put the Dodgers facing the rival San Diego Padres, who we're predicting to continue to set the world on fire and surpassing Arizona, for a high-octane three-game wild card set.
Milwaukee Brewers (NL Central champions)
Most of the Brewers' key storylines have gone exactly as we expected, but how about Jake Bauers’ sudden emergence at first base? The 30-year-old has already set career highs in every major offensive category, and his .878 OPS is well above league average. Consider that he was worth -1.2 bWAR through his first six seasons, but he's already provided the Brewers with 2.2 bWAR.
For now, all appears good on the Jacob Misiorowski front. He's avoided any arm or elbow injuries, and he leads the league with both a 1.63 ERA and 195 strikeouts. Regardless of what team they support, every baseball fan should be rooting that he stays healthy.
Atlanta Braves (NL East champions)
Matt Olson has already reached 30 home runs, and he's only nine away from his first 40-home run season. The 31-year-old is quietly building a Hall of Fame case, with 319 home runs and 43.9 bWAR through 11 seasons. Given his sustained excellence and strong analytic numbers, the thought of Olson in Cooperstown might not be so unrealistic.
Speaking of future Hall of Famers, Chris Sale has a 2.08 ERA through 20 starts and is on track for another top-five Cy Young finish. The question is whether he’ll wear a White Sox or Braves cap on his plaque, or if he’ll go with the blank hat.
Los Angeles Dodgers (NL West champions)
Ohtani is still on track for another 30-home run season, and he has an outside chance at topping 100 RBIs for the third straight year. There is no projected timetable for his return to the rotation, though, and his lingering knee problems should raise concerns about how he’ll fare in the postseason.
Tarik Skubal allowed two runs and struck out six over six innings in his Dodgers debut on Tuesday night. What, did you expect he’d immediately come out and throw a no-hitter? Given the Dodgers’ luck, that special night will probably come in the postseason.
Chicago Cubs
Will Pete Crow-Armstrong swipe the MVP from Shohei Ohtani? He's only six home runs and two stolen bases away from his second consecutive 30-30 season, and his 7.0 bWAR leads baseball. That’s what Most Valuable Player is supposed to mean, right?
The Kevin Gausman and Clay Holmes trades should help the rotation, but it might be too late to overtake the NL Central-leading Brewers. Milwaukee entered Tuesday with a 5 ½ game lead over the Cubs, an advantage that feels more insurmountable than one might initially think.
Philadelphia Phillies
Oh, yes. The Luis Arraez trade was maybe my favorite deadline move, partly because pairing a masterful contact hitter with the likes of Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber is a terrifying thought. Add in Cristopher Sánchez’s latest brilliant season, and you have a Phillies team built for a World Series run.
That said, they’re 7 ½ games back of Atlanta in the NL East. It’s a good thing that the Wild Card race is dwindling, with teams like the Cardinals and Nationals all but officially falling out of contention.
San Diego Padres
The Padres have won eight of 10 and are only a game behind Arizona for the NL’s third Wild Card spot. On the one hand, I don’t trust the trio of Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, and Xander Bogaerts to play at their previous level. But Mason Miller's dominance speaks for itself, and the Padres elected not to trade fellow reliever Adrián Morejón.
I'm also optimistic about Michael King, who has a 3.45 ERA and 2.8 bWAR over 23 starts. Don’t be surprised to see the Padres embark on an unexpected deep postseason run.
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