Pete Crow-Armstrong built his NL MVP case with stats Shohei Ohtani can't match

Pete Crow-Armstrong and Shohei Ohtani are deadlocked in an NL MVP race for the ages. What makes this battle so unique — one that has gone back-and-forth all season long thanks to the oddsmakers — is that both players excel where the other cannot possibly match them. Ohtani is a two-way player, while PCA doesn't pitch. Crow-Armstrong is an impressive center fielder, while Ohtani usually plays DH when he's in the lineup. PCA also provides a baserunning threat that Ohtani, who has to pitch every sixth day, would rather not push.

Ohtani and Crow-Armstrong are the antithesis of each other. Both are backed up by advanced statistics, while Ohtani is hampered by the obvious fatigue that comes with selecting the same MVP year after year. Crow-Armstrong is the new kid on the block and can match Ohtani in marketability and caché. In Wednesday afternoon's game between the Cubs and Dodgers, Ohtani and PCA both hits two home runs. Buckle up, folks.

NL MVP odds give Pete Crow-Armstrong an edge over Shohei Ohtani

While prediction markets like Kalshi still have Ohtani as a favorite over Crow-Armstrong, sportsbooks such as FanDuel and BetMGM flipped in the middle of the Cubs victory over the Dodgers on Wednesday. The series sweep sent a decisive message, as PCA had six hits in three games.

What's working in Crow-Armstrong's favor is the simple fact that Ohtani is unlikely to pitch for the next few weeks. The Dodgers are managing a couple injuries to Shohei, including bicep discomfort and knee inflammation. Much of that can be tied back to the Dodgers insistence to pitch Ohtani every sixth day while giving him very few days off, if any.

PCA, meanwhile, has had a clean bill of health so far this season. His 7.0 bWAR is best in baseball and he has 28 stolen bases and a .919 OPS to boot. Crow-Armstrong is a five-tool player, and it's important to evaluate each and every one of those when considering him for MVP.

Pete Crow-Armstrong can't pitch like Shohei Ohtani, but he does everything else better

Ohtani has four MVPs to his name because he can do what players before him could only dream of. Shohei is the best hitter in most lineups, and a top-5 Cy Young finisher in one season (that's likely to be two after 2026). Ohtani is the modern day Babe Ruth, but better. It's not a fair comparison given the quality of competition and the arsenal Ohtani has at his disposal.

So PCA can't pitch. He has that working against him. Have we considered the flip side? Ohtani plays DH in part because he has to pitch every sixth day (when healthy). Crow-Armstrong takes on the most demanding position in the field as a center fielder. Ohtani doesn't run much on the basepaths — he has jus six steals on the season — while Crow-Armstrong is an elite baserunner and leads the league in stolen bases. If we're to consider Ohtani in a historical light and use that against Crow-Armstrong's MVP case, then it's only fair to expose the flip side of the coin.

Pete Crow-Armstrong is an elite outfielder

Ohtani does not play the field. If we're going to consider Shohei's numbers as a starting pitcher an advantage in his MVP case, then Crow-Armstrong deserves the same treatment in the field. Crow-Armstrong has a 23 run value in the field, and has made 22 outs above average already this season. He's on pace to beat his career best of 24 by the end of the month. PCA has also prevented four extra-base hits, which ranks among the league's best, and his average throw from center field is 91.4 MPH, a shocking downgrade from his previous marks of 92.3 MPH in 2025 and 93.0 MPH in 2024.

Pete Crow-Armstrong is one of the best baserunners in MLB

One area there is a direct comparison between Crow-Armstrong and Ohtani is on the bases. Yes, Ohtani runs a lot less than Crow-Armstrong as it pertains to stolen bases, but Shohei still has to trot from first or second to home as much as any MLB player. He does have an OBP of .397, after all. Crow-Armstrong retains a significant edge here, though, especially with his sprint speed and runs added on the basepaths. Don't believe me? Just let the stats do the talking.

What will decide the NL MVP race?

Ultimately, Ohtani's availability is the best ability, tool, or whatever you want to call it. These days, he's exceptional as a hitter, but his limitations as a pitcher will hurt his case, especially if he cannot separate himself from Crow-Armstrong offensively. Here's the thing; those using Ohtani's two-way skill as the end-all, be-all argument in his MVP case will have to look elsewhere if he doesn't pitch for the next month or so. Meanwhile, Crow-Armstrong, one of MLB's streakiest hitters, must keep hitting at the pace he's set for himself. If not, he risks falling behind Ohtani, who is arguably the best overall player of all-time, and I'm not stretching my imagination.

Offensively, Ohtani has a leg up on Crow-Armstrong. It's not an insurmountable advantage, but the edge speaks to why Crow-Armstrong's other tools may come in handy should both players keep pace with their numbers through Aug. 5.

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