We're over a week past the MLB trade deadline, yet we're still nowhere near knowing how the Wild Card standings are going to shake out. As of this writing, all but three teams in the American League are within 4.0 games of a Wild Card spot, and while things are a bit more spread out in the National League, all but three teams are within 6.5 games.
These close races could ultimately come down to which teams' flaws get exposed down the stretch. Here's what to look out for from each contender at risk of missing out on October (not including any of the six division leaders or the Yankees and Cubs, both of which are pretty sure of their postseason odds).
Boston Red Sox: Lack of power
They've hit for some more pop in their magical, season-altering 32-8 run, but even with their recent power surge, the Boston Red Sox rank 26th in the Majors with 118 home runs. Willson Contreras has been one of MLB's best sluggers this season, and the Red Sox have gotten strong offensive years from guys like Wilyer Abreu and Ceddanne Rafaela, but this lineup only has five players with more than 10 dingers. One of them is Jarren Duran, who's in the midst of a nightmarish season, and another is Caleb Durbin, who only has 11 homers.
Curtis Mead was supposed to provide much-needed power, but he's out for who knows how long. Adley Rutschman should be a boon upon his return, but who knows how much? The Red Sox hope to get Trevor Story and Roman Anthony back at some point, but that's been the case much of the season, and they're both still on the shelf. Rafaela ranks second on the team with a .464 slugging percentage; as good a player as he is, that's not a great sign for a contending team.
Their lack of power puts pressure on them to string tons of hits together to win games, and while sure, that's possible, it's hard to put together sustained stretches of dominance without any power. There's a reason why the Red Sox have lost each of their last three games — they do not have a single home run in any of those contests.
Texas Rangers: Offense
Offense has been an issue with the Texas Rangers all year, and that remains the case. They've scored five runs or fewer in 12 of their last 13 games and rank 24th in the Majors in runs scored this season. While Brandon Nimmo's bat has perked up, Corey Seager still looks like a shell of himself at the plate, Joc Pederson has been slumping and Wyatt Langford hasn't swung the bat well since returning from injury.
The Rangers have offensive talent but haven't put it all together at all this season. That could change with a soft upcoming schedule, but until they prove they've snapped out of their season-long funk, there will be reason to believe this lineup has every chance to hold them back.
Minnesota Twins: Outfield
The Minnesota Twins were able to bolster their bullpen at the trade deadline, greatly improving their biggest flaw, but a new and glaring weakness is easy to spot now. This outfield, other than Trevor Larnach, has performed terribly. Byron Buxton's injury is part of the issue, but the players the Twins have relied on to patrol the grass in his absence have simply underperformed.
Luke Keaschall, a player many expected to take a big leap in his first full big-league season, has a middling .715 OPS. Alan Roden, the Twins' primary right fielder against righties, has hit .208 with a .527 OPS in 22 big-league games this season. Austin Martin had a huge April and had a four-hit game on Monday, but he's hit .221 with a .617 OPS since the start of May. Matt Wallner struggled so mightily that he was sent down to Triple-A. Buxton should be back sometime within the next few weeks, but barring a Walker Jenkins promotion, there's reason to fear the outfield Minnesota has assembled will hold the team back.
Detroit Tigers: Bullpen
The Detroit Tigers' bullpen can be a productive unit when the team is at full strength, but it isn't right now — and it looks iffy on paper. The trio of Kenley Jansen, Kyle Finnegan and Tyler Holton isn't too bad, but who else in their current bullpen do you trust? Perhaps you have unwavering faith in guys like Jacob Waguespack and Drew Sommers, both of whom have admittedly exceeded expectations, but I don't. Ty Madden has talent, but he is wildly inexperienced.
Brant Hurter is working his way back from an injury, and when Jack Flaherty returns (hopefully this month), that should push Drew Anderson back into relief, giving Detroit a couple of fairly reliable arms. But it feels like this team is still a reliever or two short, and that could be an issue when palms get sweaty in September.
Cleveland Guardians: Lack of power
What if I told you that Kyle Manzardo and Rhys Hoskins are tied for the Cleveland Guardians' team lead with 13 home runs this season? Yes, Manzardo, the former top prospect who has struggled so mightily that he was sent down to Triple-A, and Hoskins, a veteran on the short side of a first base platoon, lead this team in power.
Now, the Guardians did do well to add some thump at the trade deadline, acquiring Jo Adell (16 homers) and Nathaniel Lowe (13), and yes, injuries to Jose Ramirez and Chase DeLauter have impacted their numbers. But there just isn't enough power on this roster, which can make scoring enough runs a challenge.
Seattle Mariners: Struggling stars
The Seattle Mariners were a popular World Series pick entering the year, and understandably so as they were within one win of a World Series berth in 2025. Unfortunately, they're further back of a playoff spot than any team on this list, and their struggling stars are a huge reason why.
The biggest culprit has been Cal Raleigh, who is hitting .161 with 12 home runs after finishing as the AL MVP runner-up in 2025, but he hasn't acted alone. Julio Rodriguez has a .746 OPS. Josh Naylor has a .700 OPS. Brendan Donovan has played in only 29 games and has hit .258. Even Taylor Ward, their big deadline addition, has gone just 4-for-23 as a Mariner. If these guys turn it around, Seattle will be tough to beat. Until they do so, though, it's hard to expect much from this team.
Arizona Diamondbacks: Bottom of the lineup
The Arizona Diamondbacks' lineup looks quite good on paper, but not only have stars like Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte had down years, the bottom of their order has also been incredibly disappointing. The lack of lineup depth could come back to haunt this team in its Wild Card chase.
Lars Nootbaar, their lone deadline addition, has gone just 3-for-20 (.150 BA) thus far with the Diamondbacks. Nolan Arenado got off to a strong start and has been a bit better of late, but he still has a .711 OPS since the start of June. Max Kepler has a .600 OPS coming off a PED suspension. Tim Tawa, a player hitting .229 with a .665 OPS, is their primary first baseman. Arizona expects to get Jordan Lawlar back soon, but I'm not sure if he alone can help the bottom of this order get going.
Philadelphia Phillies: Back-end of the rotation
In games started by Zack Wheeler, Cristopher Sanchez and Jesus Luzardo, the Philadelphia Phillies have gone a whopping 48-19. That means that in games not started by that trio, they've gone 16-37. In other words, the Phillies are as good as any team in the sport when any of their three best starters pitch ... and are one of the worst teams in the league when the spotlight shines on the back of their rotation. That might not feel like such a major issue once the postseason gets underway, but getting there with the guys they have now could be an issue.
Aaron Nola's 5.47 ERA is the worst out of 60 qualified pitchers. Andrew Painter has looked a lot better in his second big-league stint, but it's not like his 6.27 ERA inspires much confidence. Alan Rangel has struggled when he's been asked to pitch important innings. Dave Dombrowski did well acquiring Luis Arraez to bolster the lineup, but it's abundantly clear he did not do enough to fix a problem that's been prevalent all year, and that could cost the Phillies in the end.
San Diego Padres: Back-end of the rotation
If this list were written before the trade deadline, the San Diego Padres' biggest flaw would've been their entire rotation other than Michael King. Now, the focus is really on their No. 4 and No. 5 starters, who are currently Walker Buehler and ... TBD? Starting pitching has been a massive issue all year, and while Robbie Ray and Casey Mize make things much better, the Padres still only have three reliable arms to take the ball. Even with perhaps the league's best bullpen and an improving lineup, is that good enough?
Buehler has a 5.07 ERA. Griffin Canning is at 6.65. JP Sears was demoted to Triple-A. German Marquez was DFA'd. If the Padres can get Joe Musgrove and Nick Pivetta back from the IL, that'd help tremendously, but who knows what Musgrove will look like coming off almost two years on the sidelines and Pivetta had a setback on his way back from elbow inflammation. Ray and Mize could very well be enough for a Padres team that's been in the hunt all year despite a brutal rotation, but I wouldn't be surprised if A.J. Preller had to acquire yet another arm off the scrap heap.
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