When the Detroit Tigers traded Tarik Skubal (and Casey Mize) away at the trade deadline, MLB fans assumed they were waving the white flag, and understandably so. The Tigers were already behind the pack in the AL Wild Card race, and had traded arguably their two best pitchers, including the back-to-back Cy Young Award winner in the AL.
Well, all the Tigers have done since trading Skubal, in particular, is win six of their first eight games by a 53-16 margin. They've scored eight or more runs in five of those games and allowed zero runs in four of those contests. They've been utterly dominant, and are now just two games under .500, 1.0 game back in the AL Wild Card race, and 3.5 games back in the AL Central. Here's how they're doing it.
Tigers rotation is still very good even without Tarik Skubal
Did you know that the Tigers' starting pitchers lead all of baseball with a 3.31 ERA? Skubal and Mize obviously had a lot to do with that, but they, alone, wouldn't occupy the top spot, especially since both of them have missed time due to injury. The Tigers have always had a lot of pitching talent beyond that dynamic duo, and it's shown during this recent stretch.
Since the day of the Skubal trade, August 1, Tigers starting pitchers have a 1.32 ERA in eight games, the best mark in the AL by over a full run. Troy Melton hasn't allowed a single run in 13 innings of work. Framber Valdez has allowed just two runs in 14 innings. Jackson Jobe threw five shutout innings in his season debut. Drew Anderson pitched 3.2 scoreless innings as a starter. Even Keider Montero threw six scoreless innings in an 11-0 win over the A's. This isn't a fluke, as their 2.81 rotation ERA since the start of June also leads the majors by a wide margin.
Pitcher | Season ERA |
|---|---|
Framber Valdez | 4.17 |
Troy Melton | 1.46 |
Keider Montero | 3.38 |
Jackson Jobe | 0.00 (1 start) |
Drew Anderson | 4.01 |
The Tigers have the rotation talent necessary to be in just about every single game, and this isn't even all the starting pitching they have. Jack Flaherty, who had allowed three earned runs or fewer in nine straight starts (3.38 ERA in that span) before suffering a right flexor injury, is expected to be back sometime within the next month. One of the top prospects acquired in the Skubal trade, River Ryan, is expected to be back from a hamstring strain in late August and could very well factor into the equation as well. Those are two legit arms the Tigers can add to an already formidable staff.
When you get good starting pitching, you'll have a chance to win every single time. The Tigers have gotten that and have taken advantage.
The Tigers offense has woken up after months of struggle
On the last day of May, the Tigers fell to 22-38, their low-water mark of the season. Just about everything was going wrong for the Tigers at this point, but the offense was the main culprit behind their struggles. They ranked second to last in the majors with 223 runs scored through the end of May, and 23rd with a 92 team wRC+. They've gone 36-22 since, reviving their season in the process. Obviously, the rotation has been generating most of the headlines, but can we talk about how much better this offense has been?
Statistic | Tigers before 5/31 (MLB Rank) | Tigers since 6/1 (MLB Rank) |
|---|---|---|
Runs | 223 (29th) | 316 (5th) |
HR | 51 (25th) | 93 (2nd) |
OBP | .312 (23rd) | .329 (9th) |
OPS | .676 (27th) | .782 (4th) |
wRC+ | 92 (23rd) | 118 (2nd) |
The difference is night and day, and virtually everyone is stepping up. Dillon Dingler is playing like a legitimate AL MVP candidate. Kevin McGonigle and Gleyber Torres have been steady at the top of the lineup virtually all year. Colt Keith and Riley Greene started to hit for some power. Max Clark has provided a spark since his promotion. Even Spencer Torkelson has a 110 wRC+, meaning he's been 10 percent better than the average hitter since June 1.
I'd say this lineup still has holes, but is far deeper than it's given credit for. Ranking within the top five of the majors in runs scored for more than two months now is wildly impressive.
The rest of the American League has struggled all season long
Credit to the Tigers: they're playing remarkably well. Their +87 run differential literally leads the American League. They deserve to be in this race. With that being said, the fact that they're in this race has a lot to do with the fact that they're in the American League, and even more specifically, the American League Central, arguably the weakest division in the sport.
The Tigers are just 1.0 game back in the Wild Card race with clear eyes set on that third Wild Card spot, currently held by the wildly unimpressive Texas Rangers, who have a .500 record. If they were in the NL, they'd be 4.5 games back of the third Wild Card spot, tied with the Washington Nationals, and with four teams in front of them. They'd still be alive in the NL Wild Card race, but their path to October would be much tougher.
To put into perspective how bad this AL is, last year's Tigers, owners of the third Wild Card spot, went 87-75. The Rangers are 59-59. For this year's Tigers to catch the 2025 Tigers, they'd need to go 29-15 the rest of the way. That's possible, but highly unlikely. For the Tigers to catch the Rangers this season, they'll need to play just 1.0 game better than them the rest of the way. The Tigers can conceivably be a .500 team and make the playoffs, while last year, they'd have been a complete afterthought, 6.0 games back with that kind of record.
Again, the Tigers deserve to be in the conversation, but they have a remarkably weak American League to thank for them being in the thick of this Wild Card race.
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