There is so much uncertainty heading into the MLB offseason. What happens in CBA negotiations? Is there a lockout? How long will it last? We won't know the answers to these questions for at least a couple months, but for now, let's assume it is business as usual — or something close to it.
MLB Trade Rumors recently published its arbitration projections for every arbitration-eligible player in baseball. That broadly includes every player with 3-to-6 years of MLB service time, minus those with pre-negotiated, long-term contract extensions. Using the MLBTR model, let's highlight a few players who could spice up the offseason with their expected 2027 salaries.
RHP Joe Ryan, Minnesota Twins
- Projected salary: $9.6 million ($13 million mutual option, $100K buyout)
Joe Ryan put together another All-Star campaign in Minnesota, with a 3.79 ERA and 1.16 WHIP across 27 starts. He leans heavily on his four-seam fastball to set up an elite mix of secondaries; Ryan's sweeper is an especially devastating out pitch. He operates with elite command, shown in his low 5.0 percent walk rate. He is durable, able to win with deception and power. Teams would line up around the block to pay him $9.6 million.
In reality, Ryan probably opts out of his $13 million mutual option hoping for an even higher number. And, as he enters his final year under contract, Minnesota has a decision to make. The Twins aren't typically keen on paying sticker price for a top free agent, so extending Ryan is out of the question. He is going to demand a significant long-term deal in order to skip the open market entirely. So, either the Twins can ride out his last year and try to win, or Minnesota can avoid a Tarik Skubal-esque deadline debacle and trade Ryan in the offseason.
There is always demand for frontline aces and Ryan has consistently made 20-plus starts and pitched 130-plus innings over the last five years. Should Minnesota put him on the chopping block — and Ryan has been floated in rumors for years now — the Twins can expect a gigantic return.
OF Steven Kwan, Cleveland Guardians
Another frequent presence in trade rumors over the years, Cleveland has remained steadfast in its commitment to Steven Kwan — often with favorable results. Kwan struggled through much of the season's first half, but turned it on after the All-Star break and played a major role in the Guardians' ascent to the AL Central crown.
Kwan is a Gold Glove outfielder and an elite contact hitter. He does not strikeout (9.7 K%) and he takes what the pitcher gives him, boasting an elite 13.3 percent walk rate. His bat control and vision is virtually unrivaled. His .382 on-base percentage this season marked a new career high.
That said, Kwan provides next to nothing in the slug department. He's a glorified slap hitter, which can be valuable. In context of Cleveland's lineup, which time and time again disappears in October, it's a bit harder to stomach. The Guardians have a ripe farm system and a dire need to change up their competitive DNA. Kwan might help another team more, plus he's a 2028 free agent. If the arbitration number spikes higher than expected, that could provide the Guardians will even more incentive to peruse trade offers.
3B Isaac Paredes, Houston Astros
- Projected salary: $15 million ($13.55 million club option)
Much was made of Houston's infield logjam last offseason, but injuries rendered those concerns moot. If the Astros can field a healthier roster in 2027, however, it's fair to wonder how exactly Isaac Paredes fits in. Jose Altuve, Christian Walker and Carlos Correa are all paid too much to move. Jeremy Peña's future is very much undecided, as both he and Paredes will be on expiring contracts. It could come down to a simple either-or proposition.
MLBTR projects Peña's arbitration salary at $13.1 million, for what it's worth. Paredes was much better this season and his $13.55 million club option should be eagerly accepted by Houston. That said, the script was flipped in 2025. Peña was viewed as far more valuable then, and he plays what is historically a more prized position at shortstop. If the Astros believe Paredes can yield more in a trade, with Carlos Correa set to reassume third base responsibilities next season, that feels like a logical path forward.
Paredes put up an .826 OPS and 127 OPS+ this past season while playing career-best defense. Plenty of infield-needy contenders will come knocking if the Astros make him available.
RHP Logan Gilbert, Seattle Mariners
- Projected salary: $15.4 million
The Mariners finally moved off a starting pitcher at the trade deadline, effectively salary-dumping Luis Castillo to the Chicago White Sox. But there's still excess depth and not enough offense, especially if Cal Raleigh and Julio RodrÃguez can't unlock their peak forms again.
There's a strong case for Seattle trading a better pitcher for a legitimate difference-maker in the lineup. Logan Gilbert, who's about to enter his final year of arbitration (and be handsomely paid for it) stands out as the logical candidate. Seattle won't touch the more controllable Bryan Woo; George Kirby and Bryce Miller are worth longer-term investment. Plus, top prospect Kade Anderson has already punched his MLB ticket, with 20-year-old hurler Ryan Sloan not far behind on the developmental track.
Gilbert offers a deep bag of tricks, anchored by a sturdy four-seam fastball. He fills up the strike zone and generates plenty of whiffs with his slider and splitter. He made 32 starts and pitched 186.0 innings this past season, with a 3.73 ERA and 1.08 WHIP, which almost does not do justice to his talent. If the Mariners decide to float Gilbert, even on an expiring contract, he might be their most valuable asset.
OF Jarren Duran, Boston Red Sox
- Projected salary: $11.1 million
Honest question: Is Jarren Duran even worth $11.1 million? Rarely is such an accomplished player put in this position, but Duran's decline in recent years leaves Boston with a tricky decision. He was still an everyday presence in the lineup, for the most part, but despite flashes of his immense talent, Duran never offered much in terms of tangible impact. The 20 homers and 21 stolen bases looks nice on the stats page, but Duran's .627 OPS and 76 OPS+ hint at a dramatically below-average offensive player. He didn't help his cause much defensively either.
Duran has become a lightning-rod subject for Red Sox fans, with a wide range of opinions and perspectives and concerns, both on and off the field. Odds are the Red Sox can still get something for him in a trade. Of note, he's the only player mentioned in this article with two additional years of club control, rather than one. While the arbitration numbers could peak a little high, that element of longevity could help Boston drum up interest.
The Red Sox also have an outfield logjam to deal with. We shall see what happens with Roman Anthony's wrist injury over the winter, but Wilyer Abreu and Ceddanne Rafaela are entrenched as cornerstone pieces in the outfield. Meanwhile, lest we forget, Boston has already extended former top prospect Kristian Campbell, who's basically an everyday outfielder now.
So, for both financial and logistical reasons, Boston could be forced to explore the Duran trade market this winter, even if his value is approaching rock bottom.
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