Major League Baseball is bound for a lockout at the end of the season. The current CBA expires in December, and the two sides remain far apart on some of the biggest economic questions facing the sport, most notably owners’ push for a salary cap and floor.
It's a topic that has dominated the conversation behind the scenes, with the looming work stoppage impacting how some teams operated before the August 3 trade deadline. One thing that no one knows, however, is how long it would last. “That’s super speculative,” one prominent baseball source responded when asked for a prediction. “Your guess is as good as mine buddy,” another said.
What we do know: Baseball is in a great spot. The San Diego Padres just sold for $3.9 billion. Revenue across the game is up. Roughly two thirds of the league are vying for postseason spots. Attendance and ratings are up. Young stars are dominating the game, and other star prospects are getting closer to debuting in the majors.
I asked a bunch of people across baseball how long they think the lockout lasts. The answers, as you would expect, vary.
Execs and insiders predict lockout length
Insider | Prediction | 2027 Season |
|---|---|---|
Executive 1 | 2-4 week delay | Yes |
Executive 2 | Opening Day on time | Yes |
Executive 3 | No baseball | No |
Agent 1 | Delayed until June/July | Yes |
Agent 2 | Full season | Yes |
Agent 3 | No prediction | No prediction |
Agent 4 | There is baseball | Yes |
Executive No. 1
- Prediction: There is baseball next year
“I think we miss most of spring training and the season starts essentially 2-4 weeks later," said one longtime National/American League executive. "Ultimately, I think both sides will be motivated to get something done. No one likes losing money.”
Executive No. 2
- Prediction: Similar to 2021-2022
“I’d guess given the state of the athletics world in general and now the uncertainty surrounding the Dodgers, we’d be looking at a similar timeframe as 2021-22," said a second exec. That lockout spanned 99 days and ultimately ended on March 10, delaying Opening Day by a week. It did keep the 162-game regular season intact.
“There's too much at stake to risk an extended or perceived duel over billions when the league wants to add teams and the Padres just sold for almost $4 billion," he said. "Call me an optimist. They’ll settle on a few mid-to-major issues and kick the can down the road. Opening Day: March 29th.”
Executive No. 3
- Prediction: There is no baseball
There are others across baseball who think there is a real chance that no baseball is played in 2027. The league wants a salary cap. The players do not. And if neither side wavers in those stances, what's getting them to negotiate during the lockout? No one knows. But both sides are extremely dug in on their stances, and it’s why the industry expectations, as well as the expectations of this exec, are that the negotiations in the winter (whenever they begin) will be a rollercoaster.
Agent No. 1
- Prediction: Delayed until June/July
“At minimum, I think we won't play meaningful baseball until June, if not July," said one agent. "Rob Manfred is going to do everything he can to get a cap and leave his forever stamp on the game. I just don’t see him giving in until the public pressure is enough. That won’t happen until meaningful baseball is lost.”
Agent No. 2
- Prediction: There’s a full season
“Everyone is making money and/or seeing their value increase under the current system, which creates a massive incentive on both sides to not blow up the season," said another agent. "I think it gets ugly and the lockout pushes into early March, but an agreement is reached in time to salvage the season.”
Agent No. 3
- Prediction: No prediction
“I think the Dodgers’ current situation combined with the Padres’ sale price should really dent the owners’ public arguments,” said the third agent I spoke with, offering no substantial prediction.
Agent No. 4
- Prediction: There is baseball
“I would say it would be quick to keep things positive," another agent said. "I don’t believe it though.”
My prediction
I believe there will be baseball next season, and I don't expect much of the regular season to be missed because of it. I do not believe that baseball will have a salary cap — I also don't believe baseball needs a salary cap in the first place — and anticipate both sides finding common ground on a solution. Whatever that is, I don't know, and I'm not sure anyone knows that solution right now.
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