The odds Schwarber, Tucker and top MLB free agents take hometown discounts

Who says you can't go home?
Boston Red Sox v Philadelphia Phillies
Boston Red Sox v Philadelphia Phillies | Mitchell Leff/GettyImages

Who says you can't go home? MLB agents, that's who. Money is at risk during each and every negotiation with the cream of the crop in free agency. The likes of Scott Boras and CAA don't want to give potential suitors an inkling of hope, especially if that involves Kyle from Waltham or Bellinger from Scottsdale taking less money to stay close to home.

Hometown discounts aren't unheard of in MLB free agency. They're far more frequent in contract extensions and trades, where players have more control of where they end up (or stay). In free agency, the market decides, not just the players. Still, there are always a few exceptions. Using Robert Murray's free agent big board, we'll dive into the likelihood (or impossibility) of the best available players going home.

Will the best free agents available take hometown discounts?

Dylan Cease
San Diego Padres v Atlanta Braves | Kevin C. Cox/GettyImages

JT Realmuto: Del City, Oklahoma

Realmuto is the best catcher available in free agency, which is why he made the cut on Murray's big board. There aren't a lot of teams in need of a backstop, either, which could limit Realmuto's market. Realmuto had a down year defensively, hitting just .257 with a 97 OPS+. His value really comes defensively, which helped Realmuto register a 2.5 bWAR. When it comes to signing somewhere close to home...it's easier said than done. I would lean towards the Texas Rangers, which could take a swing at the position thanks to two straight subpar seasons from Jonah Heim. The likelihood of a hometown discount is slim for Realmuto, unless he were to return to Philadelphia, his adopted home.

Grade the fit: C-

Dylan Cease: Mason, Georgia

Dylan Cease is one of the best starting pitchers on the open market for a reason. He has the potential to be another ace for a team that desperately needs one. It is for that reason the Atlanta Braves likely will not chase Cease out of their price range. The top of the Braves rotation is stacked, and while they were floated in trade rumors for Cease as recently as a couple seasons ago, those talks are no longer relevant unless Anthopoulos gets desperate, which is not in his DNA.

Grade the fit: B-

Cody Bellinger: Scottsdale, Arizona

Sure, Bellinger's dad played in New York, which makes his tenure as a Yankee extra special. Nonetheless, Bellinger's real hometown is Scottsdale, which is a place I very much recommend visiting anytime you're in Arizona (go see our good friend Robert!). Bellinger's been linked with a return back to New York, or even Los Angeles by some pundits. He can play any of the outfield spots or first base, which makes him an attractive target. Could the Diamondbacks shoot their shot? Sure. Do I believe Bellinger has any desire to play for the D'Backs at this juncture? No, as we haven't seen them linked just yet.

Grade the fit: C

Framber Valdez: Houston, Texas

Framber Valdez
Houston Astros v Athletics | Thearon W. Henderson/GettyImages

Framber Valdez is not from Houston, but he came up in the Astros organization and thus, they are his only real chance to give a hometown discount. Valdez is arguably the best starting pitcher available on the market — he had a 3.66 ERA and 3.8 bWAR this season. While he had a tough end to the campaign which may have involved crossing up his own catcher, don't be surprised if Houston makes Valdez an enticing offer. The Astros plan to reopen their postseason window next season, and that starts with a loaded rotation featuring Valdez.

Grade the fit: B+

Munetaka Murakami: Los Angeles, California

Murakami is from Japan, so he's irrelevant to this conversation if we're to take the definition of hometown discount literally. I was never one to play by the rules. The Los Angeles Dodgers won the World Series in 2025 and feature three of Murakami's World Baseball Classic teammates on their roster. He had dinner with Yoshinobu Yamamoto earlier this week! Nonetheless, it would be a bit of a surprise should Murakami sign with the Dodgers — he comes with significant strikeout risk and would likely slide into Max Muncy's position. Nonetheless, I know better than to count the Dodgers out on any free agent.

Grade the fit: B

Pete Alonso: Tampa, Florida

Pete Alonso is from Florida. That makes this exercise tough, as the Tampa Bay Rays are unlikely to spend the $100 million-plus it would require to sign Alonso. The Rays could make a big splash or two, but the only way they'd sign Alonso is if he were open to a short-term deal, or a long-term contract with a few opt-out clauses. Considering Alonso is over 30, he'll want a long-term deal that helps guarantee his future. Hard pass here.

Grade the fit: D

Bo Bichette: Orlando, Florida

Orlando is on the list of next expansion destinations for MLB. Until then, I'm not going to cop out and claim Bichette grew up a Rays fan. That seems entirely unlikely, as Bo spent plenty of time on the road with his father, Dante, who also played in the majors. Bichette has spoken plenty about how his experience with his father helped him prepare for his current life, so we'll assume that he was a Rockies fan. Dante Bichette played seven seasons in Colorado. Sadly, the Rockies aren't very good and seem unlikely to sign a player the caliber of Bichette. Bo wants to win, and that won't happen in Colorado.

Grade the fit: F

Alex Bregman: Albuquerque, New Mexico

Alex Bregman
Wild Card Series - Boston Red Sox v New York Yankees - Game Two | Al Bello/GettyImages

Bregman spent the early part of his MLB career with the Houston Astros, which are also close enough to New Mexico to warrant the hometown team tag. Sure, it's a stretch, but New Mexico doesn't have an MLB team at the moment. Bregman left the Astros after the 2024 season, but it wasn't because he was unwanted. Unfortunately for Astros fans, Houston as since moved on in the form of Isaac Paredes who, while not Bregman quality, they sound committed to.

Grade the fit: C

Kyle Schwarber: Middleton, Ohio

Kyle from Waltham isn't actually from the Boston area, sorry Red Sox fans. For the sake of this exercise we are taking location and, ya know, actual hometowns into account. Kyle Schwarber is from Ohio, and grew up relatively close to Cincinnati. The Reds would be a great fit for Schwarber if they were willing to meet his price tag. Terry Francona's club is on the verge of being a consistent contender, but are a piece away from joining that conversation. Consider me a fan of the fit, though I haven't seen the two sides connected in free-agent talks just yet.

Grade the fit: A-

Kyle Tucker: Tampa, Florida

And we have to end with a bang. Kyle Tucker is from Tampa Bay, and the Rays have been mentioned as a dark horse for his services. Again, it would be shocking if the Rays new ownership got out their wallets and wrote Tucker a $400 million check, but there's no time like the present. The longer Tucker waits to sign – and we should note it's quite early as of this writing — the greater the chances one of these dark horse teams have, such as the Rays. Playing close to home is enticing, especially for someone with as quiet of a private life like Tucker.

Grade the fit: B

The argument against taking a hometown discount

As tempting as it may be for some of these stars to play close to home, the downside should be just as obvious. Playing in front of your friends and family sounds great until it's not. Should the likes of Tucker, Schwarber or other stars struggle, they will not be able to escape the noise. Players can go from every fans' favorite to loathed in a matter of a week, depending on how they play or respond to the media. Sure, this can happen in any market, but it's particularly highlighted when said star is playing in front of a true home crowd.

Also, by taking a discount close to home, players are essentially giving that team an excuse not to spend money. Sure, it sounds great in theory — take less money so ownership can spend more to put a winner around a hometown product. Unfortunately, it rarely works out like that. For players like Schwarber, Tucker, Bregman and Alonso who can virtually pick their location, they should do so with the current product (and market) in mind.

More MLB offseason news and analysis: